snowfan

Are we doing this tonight? Storm blasting thru dc late evening.

Who ordered a wedge salad for tmrw? 3k nam is gross.

So we’ll see the sun again on Friday? At least it looks like things may warm up heading into next week. 

Happy Easter all. Enjoy it outside if you can because this week looks like a real winner

41 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Like usual. Precipitation is moving out faster than modeled

Most guidance in the last few days had precip exiting midday to early afternoon.

On 3/18/2024 at 12:20 PM, stormy said:

12z GFS still likes accumulating snow for the Valley Friday night.  Quebec high, ENC low, timing could work.

 

GFS was like, just kiddingggggg. 

Lots of noise about cold temps this week, so I look at my P n C and see M-W Hi temps of 51, 51, 60 with sun. Meh. 

Another warm one out there. Blooms opening everywhere.

Short drive to a winter wonderland tomorrow. You know what to do. 

Gorgeous day. Got some yard work done, biked, walked, opened the windows. Sitting here listening to loads of peepers sounding off in the woods behind the house. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

My 5 year old daughter came in excited because she found flowers growing and saw a bee.  

It’s great to hear that your new base state is bringing your daughter joy. At the end of the day, that’s all that matters. 

48 minutes ago, jayyy said:

“Next year is going to suck! I won’t be here tracking”

Yes you will. So will I. We all secretly love the torture.

Breaking news: snow hunting in the mid Atlantic becomes newest category of BDSM.

Next year is going to suck says the same people that thought this year would be above average for snowfall. They have no fng clue how it’s going to play out. And we’ll be right back here tracking.

14 minutes ago, katabatic said:

Your yin to my yang. Calm before the storm here. Finally made it to Donner Summit last night - and now looking at a forecast for the ages. The pic is the entrance to my Airbnb condo. Will be interesting to see what it looks like post storm. 

Not joking here….i hope the structure you’re in is sound. After they got pummeled last yr, I’m sure some structures have some unfixed weaknesses. Dropping 10 ft of snow on a roof takes a toll. That being said, enjoy and send pics!

8 minutes ago, stormy said:

Weak low pressure over southern Ohio will move southeast across west/central Va. this afternoon and evening. NAM/GFS/ECM and GEM all give accumulating  snow across portions of Augusta late afternoon and evening. Surface temps. below 2000 ft. will be marginal though column temps. look fine. Accumulation expectations range from 2 - 6 inches. This will be an elevation event for accumulations.  2000- 4000' 2 - 6 inches,  1000 - 2000 ft. a dusting - 1 inch.

None of the local nws offices are enthused about this. PIT has Davis getting 1.5” and Charleston has Snowshoe receiving about the same. So snow looks likely, but those higher end amounts seem not so likely. From Charleston…

Lowering temperatures behind today`s front should support snow or a
rain/snow mix to the north and along the higher terrain. Mainly rain
is expected to the south, though some flakes could briefly mix
in before precipitation ends. Snow accumulations of an inch or
two are possible for portions of southeast Ohio and northwest
West Virginia this morning, and in the higher elevations of the
northeast mountains by the end of the day. Outside of these
areas, any accumulation should be minimal.

Out ahead of the system, could see some decent gusts on Wednesday.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

We know how this will likely go, but it is inside of 7 days and there is nothing else except more LR pattern chasing. Hopium. Copium.

Op gfs targeting your back yard. Though, I think we know how this will go….cold air bleed will lag vs what’s progged and precip will be east of the area by the time it’s cold enough. 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Doesn’t have to be an argument if @snowfan stops making this same BS complaint every time I make legit analysts about our climo. I don’t tell him to shut up every time he says something I disagree with, and he says plenty. I just move on. Or maybe I comment that I disagree. But I never ever ever tell anyone what to talk about. He can F off with that BS. 

Dude - we will never see eye to eye on the thing that seems to be most important to you…..I don’t think you’re always right. 

@Jii wonder if you thinking of 18-19 when you mentioned 20-21 as a good winter. At least for Dulles, 18-19 had more than twice as much snow as 20-21. 

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Every time it’s applicable to analyzing something.  I didn’t do that not to use it.  But let’s cut through the BS shall we. 
 

The really disingenuous thing with this tact is absolutely EVERYTHING in this thread is repetitive. We’ve had every possible pattern before. Every type of storm. Every time you discuss a snowstorm you don’t say this. Because it’s a new damn storm.  But it’s the same type of storm as hundreds before. it’s the same analysis. The same analogs. And we discuss the history.  We repeat the same things over and over. And no one says a god damn thing. When we post a snow forecast map that looks like 500 storms before you don’t say this BS. As long as we’re analyzing why it will snow it’s fine if we repeat the same stuff 100 times.  No one has ever told anyone to shut up when they post a similar great looking map to 5000 before. 
 

But when I do the same exact thing with a fail and point out how it’s similar to other fails lately and analyze why and compare it to the past and hypothesize why its a fail (hint it’s been really fooking warm lately) then you break out this BS garbage nonsense to suppress a topic you just don’t like.  It’s the same repetitive analysis as we do when it’s going to snow!  You don’t actually care because it’s repetitive. Because you don’t say a damn thing when we’re repetitive about stuff you like.  But that’s hard to win with so you try this BS instead as a passive end around to squash the topic when the real issue is you just dont like what Im saying. 

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

So have the fails 

And there’s a separate thread for that as @WxUSAF has repeatedly reminded folks.

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I didn’t even look at the run. It was a joke. 
 

But….and I promise this is the last time (at least in this thread) that I’ll say this…but several years ago when I did that case study of every Baltimore 4”+ snowstorm I was shocked how many actually featured a totally shit god awful pattern with reds and blues in all the wrong places with a pile airmass where it was 50 degrees the day before and the only thing that went right was somehow by some means the storm took a perfect track and so we got a 6” wet snow paste bomb storm.
 

Obviously that wasn’t the majority of our storms and it’s not how we want to roll. I’m not saying we root for crap patterns. But it was enough of the storms that if we can’t ever get that kind of thing anymore, where it snows just because of a good track in an awful pattern, then it’s going to hurt us A Fooking Lot!   Way more than some here want to admit!  

Just off the top of my head without even looking at the files…

Our only real snow in 1997 came in a god awful pattern because we got lucky with a wave track. 

Look at this BS…we got a 4-8” snow from THIS BS on a stick pattern.  

1976 would have been a completely snowless winter if not for a 10” wet snow storm that came in a pattern that had no business snowing in.

There was another year in the early 90s where our only 2 significant snows both came in a pattern that had no business snowing. Yea it was a crap year but most had like 10-15” not NOTHING!  
 

You know what they all have in common. They’re a long ass time ago. It’s not happening anymore.  There were a lot in the 50s, 60s, 70s, then they started to decline and they’ve gone extinct the last 10 years.
 

Lately our bad patterns are so warm that it doesn’t matter what the track is.  And every time I hear the same thing…but this wasn’t perfect. That wasn’t perfect. The high was too this or that. There was too much ridging in front.  Yea no shit I know it can still snow if every fucking thing goes perfect. Yea if we get a 980 low off VA beach with a 1040 high over Montreal and a -3stdv block with a -epo arctic air mass yes we will get a shit ton of snow. But that’s going to happen once a decade. What about the rest of the god damn time?  We had so many bad but not awful winters in the past where if you take away a couple snows that came from pure luck in a shit pattern they are suddenly a 3” snow year instead of 12” or absolutely nothing instead of 10” like 1976!  
 

lastly I know it’s impossible to prove what storms would or wouldn’t have been a snow 30 years ago. Not without tools I don’t have access too. There were perfect track rains in the 50s too when it was just too warm for any track to overcome.  But there were some snows too!  So while I can’t prove anything because of any one storm…when it happens over and over and over and none of them seem to be snow outside the higher elevations anymore…the preponderance of evidence is damning. 

How many times are you going to tell us about your 4” storm case study? You have turned into a broken record.

On 2/11/2024 at 12:32 PM, psuhoffman said:

Why are you posting the day 12 of the worst operational model?  

It appears day 12 of the worst operational model was off by about a day or so on the warmth. Upper 40s to low 50s Sunday and then 60s to 70 to close out the month next week.

26 with heavy frost. Today should take of the last of Saturdays snow imby. 

Just now, CAPE said:

Apparently there isn't much to discuss wrt prospects for cold/snow for what's left of this winter. Might as well prepare ourselves for next winter's inevitable disaster.

 

 

I won’t complain about an early start to bass fishing season.