snowfan

Lord….you already have ppl canceling next winter based on historical trends when ppl can’t even get this winter right based on historical trends. Take the seasonal approach and hold off on evaluating next winter until ya know…..closer to next winter. 

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Talking suppression, dry and March....should be fun reading when the kids get home from school today 

We are also now targeting post-Feb 20. 

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm leaning towards the front half of March to be the most active. Ens guidance did an incredible job seeing the blocking pattern. One thing I never liked seeing is the corresponding precip anomaly panels. Second half of Feb has looked pretty dry with unanimous agreement.

Now that it's getting closer it's looking more likely. We can still get a big storm as the pattern itself is ripe but idk. BN precip anomaly in the TN valley across all weekly/monthly guidance is bugging me. Pretty strong clue of suppressed storm track and/or quiet northern stream. That narrows our path to true Miller A's that have to turn the corner. NW shield would be tight and track more on the vertical side. I can't think of many pure Miller As without a primary in the tn vly. Jan 2000? Lol

 

Eta: I graphed a bunch of nao data leading into our bigger storms. This was back in like 2012 so there is new data but the basic premise was obvious. We don't get big snow with a real -NAO descending into anomalous territory. We generally dont even get moderate snow with a tanked-NAO. There are a few but vast majority are on the relax. Most know this. This is a massive blocking event. That's not our forte on the front side. 

And BN precip would be consistent with CPCs outlook for both 8-14 days and 3-4 weeks out. 

Good radiational cooling night underway. Tipton airport topped out at 50 and is already down to 32.

8 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

the snowcover should recover

We are not far away from the time of year when retaining snow cover becomes a real challenge outside of the mountain west and interior New England. Doesn’t mean it can’t snow of course, but you need that early season snowfall And sustained cold to have big impact on snow cover outside the mountains. 

Looks like we have at least another 7-10 days of AOA temps. Given trees/plants are already showing signs of early growth, I’m assuming we’re going to have some issues with late season cold killing things off. 

GFS op is just a continuation of the seasons long theme….active with a number of systems to look at, but marginal to crappy temps. Even at the end of the run, there are 50s/60s in the middle of the country on the way to OBY. I get it….LR looks promising on ensembles. That doesn’t always translate, but hopefully it will this yr.

1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said:

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

Read the room. Many/most here would absolutely love that. 

Can confirm…..just a bad winter stretch even out in Canaan. Such a stark contrast from two weeks ago. Here’s a snap from yesterday at Douglas falls. 
 

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

I'm making popcorn to see who cracks first on the potential pattern change. Easy money is on Ji but don't underestimate someone like Heisy or Terpeast getting jumpy 

The post analysis of why this didn’t turn out to be an epic pattern will be glorious. I’m sure someone already has a few pages typed up just in case. 

Fire up the grills and open the pools for Super Bowl Sunday.

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Digital blue at WB Day 15 is back on 6Z GFS....let the games begin!   

As has been the case most of the winter, the airmass is crap. Verbatim, that would be a rate/time of day dependent wet pasting for the N/W areas. That said, it’s a positive to see both this system and the one that precedes it a few days showing up. 

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I think the writing is on the wall for this winter unfortunately. We got until the end of the month to score a climo snowfall then it's over.

It’s too soon to write off winter. We know we can score in Feb and March. That said, we’re losing ground quickly on the ability to retain said snow for a significant period of time. 
 

Id much rather have cold w a few inches on the ground for a few weeks than I would 6-8” that melts in 2 days.

Very solid trade. Nice move to solidify the starting rotation. 

Never a good thing when this thread turns into a trip down memory lane. If the 18z gfs op is close to accurate, we’ll have blooming daffodils and crocuses before the flip.

Natives are going to get restless if the ops don’t start showing some consistent hits in the LR. 

Do we really need two threads to track February? Get organized people. Can’t imagine how chaotic some of your desktops look. 

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

At least the gfs wasn’t a snore fest. We be tracking in a week or so. 
 

At least the gfs wasn’t a snore fest. We be tracking in a week or so. 
 

5 hours ago, understudyhero said:

What exactly is a KU?

Something you’re not likely to see this year.

Gorgeous morning in Canaan with undercast in the valley. 
 

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Officially baseball season. It’s only 17 days until O’s catchers and pitchers report. 

Home opener is two months from today. 

Well, Chiefs-49ers it is. 9ers would tie the Pats and Steelers for most rings if they win. 

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If the Ravens keep both coordinators we may have a better chance of running it back (and finishing) next year.

That schedule next yr is no easy task. Currently the 2nd toughest schedule for ‘24.
Bengals, Steelers, Browns, Bills, Eagles at home

Cowboys, Texans, Bucs, Steelers, Browns, Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers on the road