CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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"raises hand"
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Winds probably from E-SE at Cape Coral. That will shift to SW as eye moves in and maybe just to NW. That's when it gets real.
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Possible that strongest winds north of worst surge which I suppose is a slightly better outcome?
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I noticed the GFS and euro yesterday had the strongest 925mb winds on the northwest side too.
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Well, needless to say this continues to humble me. Just tip my cap and call Mother Nature my daddy
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Radar showing the eye close to closing off at least temporarily anyways.
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He looks pretty good. Considering what it was last night, I’m surprised it made it to cat 4. Figured it would be steady state.
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It’s not going to be a cat 5.
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Daytime heating boosting that 0-3KM CAPE helps.
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The EWRC that I commented earlier on was in terms of size. Many times you see it constrict a bit but larger than the original eye. I feel like we are seeing this as we speak.
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Not so sure I agree what Webber has there is the new eyewall at this moment.
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Man structure in tact for sure. Cuba did little damage.
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Tops are warming so Cuba having an effect. But as long as it has an eye structure, it should re-intensify.
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Yeah starting to get convection wrapping around center on IR. Here he goes.
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EPS looks like the op.
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18z Euro looks to bring it south of Tampa lol.
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Updated to .40" which is not half inch. Just saying.
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I see .26 Robin circle. Hmmm.
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No problem! Just giving my thoughts that's all.
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Well I am talking like an integration of the entire area...one dropsonde may not tell the story. Anyways I think it will strengthen and likely rapidly later tonight or tomorrow.
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Usually when you see that IR presentation, shear and/or dry air are the issues. Shear maybe slightly having some say in nrn half...but it has to work out the environment it had earlier that was sort of impeding the deep convection.
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Center is nowhere near Cuba. It's residual from whatever issues it had earlier.
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It's having trouble on IR on the nrn side. Clearly still being impeded for now.
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Still lots of dry air I think in nrn half of the storm.
