I don't think the strat vort has anything to do with it. It's just nuances in the flow. There is a PV in Canada that has been shooting offspring around and playing with the block...but that is also from the Pacific causing issues. This isn't that sort of classic PV trapped under a block. It is stuck in western Canada and gets booted north. You can see that early on with the H5 anomalies.
My assessment is from all guidance, not just the ops. Embrace the rain on the 14th there. Interior NE still has a shot, esp NNE if this were to be a SWFE deal.
Yeah about 5" there. TSSN too. Just pure paste. This thing just stalls lol. But you can see how the s/w rips off as the block to the north is forming. That's how it gets it done.