I also noticed the 6hr qpf progs never quite touch half inch QPF near ORH. I feel like I want to see more than that fall in 6 hrs to help suggest dynamics will come into play.
Just trying to talk it through and see what’s going on because yeah…..it’s a head scratcher with thermals.
I know and I’m trying to see why. But it’s stubborn so it’s keying on something.
The only thing I can see (this is for 925) is that George’s bank buoy is 66F. 925 briefly comes from that direction. Maybe the source region is sort of overriding what we typically expect for climo temps? Although that doesn’t totally explain surface temps with winds that are more ENE. That would keep lower level temps cooler.
Anyways just something I noticed. I guess we’ll see how 00z looks.
I feel like this is underrated. Nearly 2' of snow in 6-8 hrs from near TAN to EWB. TSSN up the azz in PYM. Some of the heaviest snow I've ever driven in on my way to work...to the point I had to follow the guardrail on the expressway to know where I was going.