CoastalWx

That map.

Fantasy’s and Keilbasa. A true Tip novel.

Now that is violent.

43 here. Finally feels like November.

Hard not to like PFs spot (well especially the ski area) for this. Sure question of how far north the goodies get...but I feel like he's in a good spot here. Deeper into the cold, and probably near some mid level fronto.

NAM is pretty much no snow south of pike, but a little thump north of the MA border for a few hours.

Yep. Needs to come in hard and fast.

HRRR is like 1-2 for Kev into ORH areas maybe 2-3 for Dave and Ineedweenies. I think those clown maps are more realistic as HRRR explicitly depicts snow unlike some other models. Caveat being 10:1 ratios shown and it likely will be less so probably lower range of totals?

Well the Nina forcing verbatim is very weak in that graphic. So it goes into Phase 8-1-2 type stuff which I believe would tend to be on the cooler side for us. But the signal is not strong. It's probably temporary...but I'd rather see that versus an Indian ocean signal that would torch us.

This is interesting. The MJO forcing really weakens. 850 easterlies weaken too. The Atlantic part looks to perk up a bit. Not sure what that might mean.

This shows up in my FB memories. We all knew it was over by now.

You Bangor.

Probably, but I would give that Monday-ish thing a low chance of something light anyways.

Doesn't look like much of a relaxation other than a few days next two weeks. Looks like the NAO region tries to assert itself as the Pacific relaxes a bit. That EPO ridge shows signs of moving east again very late in the run.

I'd give it a low chance.

I could see snow in the higher spots to start for sure. I think it would be tough for more than a sloppy inch in those areas except for maybe Dave and now Ineedsnow up in the hinterlands.

Euro is pretty mild 925-850 south of rt 2 when precip starts. You’ll have to hope for one of those initial bands to ride out well ahead and get the show started as snow I think because verbatim I don’t think much would fall as snow on the euro.

Yeah it’s just something to watch for people like Dave and Ineedsnow. Better for you as you get into the meat of this.

It’s cold at the surface, but beware the warm tongue aloft.

Nam is pretty warm still.

AEMATT?

That’s just pickles

NAM is pretty warm aloft, but a good initial thump especially near the MA-NH-VT border on north. It is something to watch though. The high is in a decent spot as Tip said. Not really retreating so that good. That look usually is kind to the east facing slopes with the upslope cooling. So you’ll probably wetbulb nicely in areas that start as snow. You’ll also want to get a good initial thump too. You want to see good lift into the DGZ to help drop temps from wetbulbing. Gfs was sort of meh it seemed with rates. I don’t know how that will play out, but pay attn to soundings over the next 24 hours. If you can’t get the good lift, it will be a lot of sleet and cold rain.

Would be nice to get a low as we get into the deep cold later next week. Might be cold and dry though.

Man snow