CoastalWx

The nrn half of the band, as the NWS disco notes. That's where it will be most intense. Probably near the airport and close to the shoreline. It will be nowcasting for sure.

Yeah when Tip and I were talking, I noted that this wasn't the classic warm tongue event above 800mb where it does well in. It just missed the mark overall on this one for whatever reason. HRRR did well and showed the good initial thump...and it was consistent with each run.

This looks like an epic 24 hrs there give or take during the peak.

It's ridiculous how that area near exit 18 is the magic zone.

Quick peak on GFS shows chance of snow shwrs/squalls maybe Sunday aftn?

Beer

Looks Cold and dry. Maybe we see flurries. Strong s/w but I feel like its Too Far East to have much of an effect.

BTV getting smoked.

Meh

Warm ground!

Winni looks nice based on webcams

That storm on some models. May have to watch later Thursday into Friday next week. Hopefully after that there’s enough blocking for me to hop on board the Ginxy ho train and do some pole dancing.

Yep. Just a taste.

I always look ahead. Hopefully some violence near T day before it relaxes.

But it’s a legit question lol.

Does it derail after next week?

4 years ago we were all disrobing.

EPS luckily did Not look like that. But regardless we’ll probably relax to a point first 10 days maybe December? Give it take. If that blocking doesn’t happen, it will be mild.

That better not happen. I just saw lol.

I know what you mean by NW bias, but I think it does well overall with the warm intrusions. For instance I don’t notice a NW bias when it shows this….maybe if anything is actually depicts the surface low as it should….following the path of least resistance near coast vs going inland. However, I’ve noticed that given similar low placements on guidance, it seems to handle warm air intrusions aloft better….800mb and above stuff. I think this is working out close to HRRR and other guidance that had snow start near CT coast from a good burst. However sleet like racing north so I’m not sure we see a big + bust? Unless you bought the nam haha.

9/10 times when everyone tosses the nam because it’s the warmest model, it is right. Doesn’t mean it will be all the time like today, but it does do well. Not sure today purely qualifies as the typical warm tongue type event though.

It does do well with that

Should be nice burst into metro west I think

Nam ftl

AWT