CoastalWx

I know Tblizz wants to shoot me when I say this, but I do like what I see overall going forward after Friday. Every good pattern has inherent risks. Cutters, whiffs....whatever. That's just how weather works.

Now lets look at H5 preceding hr 240. This is hr 210. So that Baffin Bay block helps in the first and last images. You can see the confluence there. However look at the middle image. The ridging out west is farther offshore. That causes a fuji dance type thing where the PV(or a piece of it anyways) in the middle image actually loops around back to the west in Saskatchewan and helps swing that trough around and into the GL region. Thus giving a cutter look. Anyways the point isn't to obsess that far out...just showing the chaotic flow.

Here are the clusters (think groups of solutions or clusters with similar ensemble members). Notice 41% have a pretty nice SWFE or redeveloper look. 33% have a mix to rain(cutterish?) look. The other 25% have a coastal look.

Yep, that will be part of what happens.

But, the flow is chaotic...like Will said, recall Friday was cutting to MSP last week. Just understand what the risks are. Personally, I welcome the cold dump into the CONUS and rid us of this stale airmass we have had.

What you need to watch are the key ridges below. That ridge folding over north of Canada and the west based -NAO are pinning that PV lobe into western Canada. The key is to maintain the ridge off the Pacific coast...closer to NAMR. That will prevent what the euro op did. However, there is a risk there should that ridge be more offshore.

These patterns always have an inherent cutter risk....we just need to keep that EPO ridge closer to NAMR coast to prevent any of these wave breaking ridge fold overs like the euro op.

I mean yeah op run, but that's funny. EPO no right there.

At least SEA and PDX will have a white Christmas.

Not to derail this thread, but I'm still laughing at your comment..."I'm ready to decouple.."

Hey 15 yrs ago! I was getting ready to embark on a 9 hr endeavor lol.

Was hoping to see more dynamics there, but looked like all the QPF was closer to WCB.

Euro wants to bring the low over Steve lol.

"Come on aboard the train they said, we'll get together...have a few snow events.."

Might be a name change to Easternmeltweather soon?

I agree. The further SE solutions are weaker it seems. I guess it may be better for those in the ORH-TOL area or so.

GEFS moved SE quite a bit too.

The Cape has had it rougher too.

We both are, but at least I know and understand it's coming.

Well my comment was meant for him.

I laughed a bit when you said that. Enjoy a paster.

In thy knicker days, maybe this would be snow inside 495. We've also pulled many events out of our arses too. Eventually luck runs out.

That track would bury SNE 96/100 times. Oh well.

GFS is so far SE lol.

50F rain for Dover?