CoastalWx

Velocity Potential Anomalies. This is a measure of the divergent flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Your areas of blue shading are indicative of divergent flow at that level. This is where you may find your MJO convection because as air diverges or is evacuated aloft, you'll tend to have convergence of air near the surface. This convergence at the surface and divergence aloft helps to promote the convection.

Our satellites these days provide data that substitute for RAOBs. This isn't low res stuff either. You also have aircraft reports etc to help. Besides, we aren't trying to decipher things like timing a s/w to induce cyclogenesis off the east coast. We are looking at a broad area to analyze things like outgoing long wave radiation, 850mb winds etc. We then use guidance to see how this will propagate. They'll be some errors for sure, but you aren't going to see gross errors in the MJO 1-2 weeks out. FWIW those RMM plots are noisy and typically not the most accurate.

This isn't 1960. Our remote sensing capabilities are pretty darn good for analyzing components of the MJO. That along with tribal accounts of migratory birds get us to a good point.

It is close, no argument here.

Look at Korn's "Falling away from me" video. That Dad might be me.

I'm worried for them.

This is the EPS. Because the previous graphic I posted is 5S-10N latitude, it makes it look like the MJO is dead. In reality it's further south. I think you want the actual forcing to be a bit further north...but regardless..I don't think this is a PAC firehose look. So yeah, maybe we see less troughing near Bering Sea-GOAK area. I don't really have confidence either way lol.

Not sure what drives the PAC with this look.

The EPS actually kills everything across the Pacific for awhile and has some lower VP anomalies in the Atlantic. I'm not sure what that really means honestly. At least to me, other things will drive the Pacific, and I don't see how any sort of PAC jet lasts that long without some tropical assistance..but we'll see.

All I know is that it is horrifying outside currently. 40s and rain is about as bad as it gets....maybe Ray's 32.00001F rain is worse..but this is Kurt Cobain weather.

I don't think the pattern was ever dire....but when things reverted back again....internally I basically felt like "give me a fucking break." I'm not sure it ever gets that great...but the one thing I mentioned earlier, is that we really don't have a SE ridge. So maybe the airmasses are marginal, but workable..especially inland.

Yeah definitely a higher tendency for heights there compared to 00z. And despite the lack of arctic air, a bit of NW flow from Canada helps during peak climo. You can see that with the 500mb height lines...it's not a true PAC firehose from Guam. I noticed a subtle trend there on the 00z EPS too.

I'll take the under on 60s there.

The one thing about this month that seems a lock to me is that it will be above normal. And probably above normal by a decent amount.

Who’s doing that? The annoying thing I see is the whining. Kevin maybe trying to project a little frustration.

I prefer the frozen ground. Sick and tired of kids dragging mud into the fucking house.

Ray bullish.

BS lol.

Wonder what would happen if he rained, and Easton got pounded.

ICON would work. It has N winds verbatim. You aren't raining to 495 with that. It's always a little warm.

I mean the potential I see could rival Feb '78.

LOL.

This tucky event will be interesting. Someone will probably drop below 30 later Thursday with FZDZ and complain because their app had temps near 40.

Congrats on 40s. Your pack is saved.

Despite the crappy look, we don’t have a predominant SE ridge. It really is Nino like. So there is hope especially inland that you can sneak something in with a high to the north.