CoastalWx

Actually looking at some soundings, maybe lower end better. DGZ May dry out quick.

I’m offended.

6-8?

I could see less too. These setups are a pita.

I’ll go around 8” for marky mark.

Eh. I think that tuck is more important because outside of that it’s a lot of 33-34F rain and pellets. This is more for south of pike. Ironically mesos more aggressive with tuck.

Same. A coating to maybe 1 inch if lucky. Like you I’m more interested in tomorrow afternoon.

I know. I wish we had more multi model agreement like the euro.

That shows pellets too, so that’s not a good comparison. The globals definitely got warmer. And I suspect they aren’t done. I’m also thinking The best lift and QPF will be north and that’s another issue we may have in the snow department.

Won’t matter much there. It’s all about the temperatures aloft.

EPS has it too.

The mesos albeit initially too warm I think have the right idea. Although I definitely would have some snow and ice inside 128 and that tuck tomorrow may cause issues. Just saw the 6z nam and that isn’t backing down.

I ask because the mean has some really borderline events that favor nne so that surprised me.

Euro warmed and qpf shifted north a bit.

That seems impossible. What algorithm is that?

Sleet and zr risk. May get tucked too.

Nobody on media really talking about it. Pretty light with snows too up to SNH. Must be winter fatigue.

It definitely went south again.

Hrrr with a violent tuck.

Yeah it is. Still awful lol.

Yep you’re right. What happens in Mowvember, winter did remember.

Used to be lots of smaller events. I’ll take the big daddies though.

Those tucks usually are modeled too far to the N and W. In most seasons, those usually end up further south and east due to ageostrophic processes. That will accelerate a bit on Thursday as 925 winds back to more NE. That allows the low levels to leak cold toward the SE with less resistance. What I have noticed is that models are really all over where and how far SE it gets. Later Thursday night we start to WAA and winds down to 925 veer to the south. I also noticed some models vary with the primary strength and position. That’s going to eff around with the tuck placement. You’re basically trying to forecast where the lower 2K of cold will go. Not an easy thing to do and guidance will struggle.

It’s not your typical strong s/w ripping over or just west of us.

You’re in good shape no?