I think this is a good point. Traditional ENSO analogs and our prior understanding of the behavior need to evolve. So while the underlying physics and behavior are there...I do think Nina's and Nino's nowadays are not exactly behaving as many think given the SST temp distribution. I've heard energy mets say this as well.
We may have some drier interludes I suppose? Both dews and rain...but judging by the EPS...I'm not sure it's a pattern change really. However, we may actually see cold fronts try to push east of us for once.
I know what you mean with sim radar, but sometimes good ole fashioned radar tells a different story. Pattern recognition helps too. It was a corridor of high PWATS along a front. That usually means it ‘gon rain.