CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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I was never really sold on the west of TLH to ATL tracks though. I did get a little nervous when those tropical models were stubborn, but it looks like they’ll tick east enough to avoid worst-case.
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Yeah I think ATl and perhaps TLH dodged one. West side of this will certainly be weaker I think.
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Yeah I’m sure they’re probably being careful here. I get it.
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Definitely looks better on IR. So she’s starting the process.
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I think for the surge itself that wording is definitely needed for a 3.
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Looks like an east shift a bit and weaker by NHC.
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It’s got the zit looking towers going up. You want to see more widespread deeper convection. Helene suffering from an acne problem.
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It’s definitely fighting some dry air. Can see it on IR.
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I would guess the dry air issue is factoring into models currently.
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00z early cycle track still west of TLH to ATL, but intensity dropped significantly. More like a high end category 2 borderline 3.
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I’ll look a little more when I put kids to bed, but first glimpse looks good there. Probably cane gusts.
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Yea northern eyewall will be intense just as it makes landfall.
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I think it will apply here to an extent.
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Yeah NHC track would move those winds more to the west.
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Luckily I’m not forecasting lol.
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I’m guessing the winds as it moves north may be skewed more east by the time it gets to ATL latitude. At least I hope.
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One thing to think about is that you need to be east of the eye and not just center for strong winds. So if the eye is large, and it passes over say TLH….theyll get raked, but it will be eastern suburbs that get it. It’s one reason why I think TLH and ATL won’t be on the worst side. Well at least I hope.
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I saw that lol.
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Gfs still stubborn
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Yep. Tropical models usually work best. This will be interesting.
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I also was under the impression that some are also new and these plots are positions extracted from the grib files etc. The HWRF shown on that is definitely different compared to the 12z runs. Admittedly though I'm not 100% sure how those early runs are collected.
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Not much of a move on the 18z tropical models. Maybe a tad more spread to the E, but overall pretty consistent location wise.
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I didn't zoom in or anything, but NHC track at 11a seemed close to the tropical models at 12z. I generally follow the tropical models..but you have some good globals now still to the east. If I had to guess, NHC may ever so slightly adjust E at 5p.
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Man tough call. I also feel like I would take the NHC track and nudge it east too..but the differences in impacts are literally night and day.
