There still is some dry air and TUTTs around too. I saw an image of a lot od dry air near and north of 98-l and also still getting these hot 850 plumes ripping off Africa. At least at this moment, it's not all coming together. An easy way to see this is looping the GFS and Euro. We know when they spit out those lows in the extended something is favorable...even if they are too bullish. That's not even happening! I do think it gets better heading into September.
Yawn. Still looks like some issues out there with these disturbances regardless how super-duper awesome the MJO is. I suppose 98-l or whatever it is east of the Antilles, could become something if it can avoid land.
08-09 is one of my favorite seasons. It's not like we had 100+", but for this area I think we ended up near 75" give or take, with a most of that in Dec and Jan. That was a fun season. I still remember the RUC nailing that 2 part Jan event.