Also with this being MJO driven, some signs maybe this changes mid December. Just some early speculation. Still think sometime before Christmas we try to make a run.
BOX should have nrn ORH county in an advisory but that’s my opinion. First of the year, travel season for holiday etc. I know it’s late at night, but they’ll probably meet the criteria.
Definitely a more Nino December look there at the end of ensembles sometime during the first week of December. Prior to that I don’t see any wintry events, but still possible some S/w flies by and gives a little.
I think it wouldn’t be a big difference at the same elevation. Haven’t him sort of tucked in like where he is does him well I think. The real downslope areas are up to his north near Plymouth NH, and over towards the nrn lakes region. They can shadow pretty hard.