It’s definitely some of the worst porkings I’ve been through so far. Still lots of winter left so one biggie could change it. But it’s just feels the same as last last year. It’s a shit feeling.
I wouldn't go 4-8 yet. There's definitely some features that are a red flag. I would start 3-6ish.
A BM track which normally we would all salivate on and now deal with boundary layer issues. Comical really.
Well we actually do slowly cold air advect during this instead of the opposite on 1/7. But of course the airmass aloft is warmer.
I would stay conservative with maybe 1-2 at the end for now.