People do long range for a living and it’s skillful to have an idea of the long range look 4-6 weeks out. Can it be wrong, sure but overall there is skill. Other than a few passing cold fronts, it doesn’t look great. I’d feel better late December.
That's an impressive deep dive. Good stuff.
I really haven't paid much attention to the warm poo stuff, but I just plotted precip rate since 1/1/24 and can see that in the same area as the VP stuff shows above. It's interesting that the SST anomalies in the area where convection drives the pattern aren't very warm from an anomaly standpoint...but do increase with latitude as you head toward Japan...water is warm there as well and can help influence the pattern.
Yeah. You’re losing the CAA so I’m not sure they’ll get much colder than 32-33. Just my guess. Maybe if they hang onto a light NW wind they could. But 22? lol.
I actually wouldn’t differ snowfall wise from what you have. The weenie in me deep down thinks we’re due for a decent winter, but I’m not confident this winter is the one that will do it.
Sigh as in “not again.”
I’ll be honest. I’ve never been as detached from winter. I just want it respectable. I don’t have any thoughts other than the default warmer than normal.