CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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GFS trying day 7.
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Latitude will matter for sure.
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They pee.
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That's too low for both. Exeter should be close to 70 easily and Epping maybe 5" more.
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Haha Occasional. OCNL is used in weather. My bad.
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I like the GFS spitting out ocnl bombs. Like the 6z GFS. Maybe not snow for many, but at least we all lose power.
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EPS actually is a great look for places near Dryslot to Lakes region etc and on west.
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6z EPS reminds me of Schwoegler backlash talk. That low wants to scoot out, but another s/w is diving into the trough and keeping the low hanging back. Kind of like that youtube clip I like to post of him back in December '95 talking about another piece of energy coming down and reinvigorating the precip.
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Last year was also the winter of retreating highs. That helps the marine air penetrate further inland. A decent high position would have resulted in much different weather where you are. We have friends that live in Exeter, but formerly Epping. I recall one time back in 2013 right when I got to 101 there was just a semblance of frozen translucent crust. As I looked west on 101 from that spot, I could see the snow cover maybe 2 miles away. So I know what you mean with the sharp gradients.
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As you go further north the marine influence generally is less in coastal storms. Once you get to your latitude the coastal fronts are pinned much closer to the coast. Obviously every situation is different, but many times cstl fronts stay near 95 near your latitude and north.
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Obviously N and W of the metro area have a better shot. Just speaking more around BOS.
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I’d still watch next week too, especially interior. I just peaked at some EPS clusters and there’s definitely some wintry members.
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I’m leaning after 18-20 for something workable around here I think. Doesn’t mean we are shut out, but that’s where I feel more comfortable.
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Wankum said that? He would.
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I noticed yesterday it was about 1-2F behind stations at similar elevations.
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It’s been interesting to watch it transition to more of the mtn west side.
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LOL I wonder when this was fixed.
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Some of those MADIS assessments showed a big jump or discontinuity over a short time too. That's another red flag. Sometimes they drift over time. We aren't nitpicking over margin of error stuff. These are significant deviations it seems from local obs.
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The snowpack does help a bit with the source region. But that will get deeper to our N and NW over the next 6-10 days.
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Never let facts get in the way of an agenda. This actually happened at Logan too. They also had fog with a T/Td spread of 3F. It was called out my many Mets. Something finally changed and the results have been much better. This has nothing to do with biases or political nonsense. It's about getting data right. I just said how PVD is running cool.
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When it's reporting freezing rain at 34F and/or accumulating snow at 2"/hr at 34F, I would say a bias exists.
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KPVD may need a replacement. Going wild day and night. I will say a few times during the day I've noticed it, but seems cool at night.
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Many of the first order sites going back to 2022 are not running the departures like KORH is doing. KBOS could b +0.7 and KORH will be +2.2 on a monthly departure for example. Whether it's 1.5 or 2F isn't the point. If you are going to break records with faulty equipment, that is an issue.
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Myself and @ORH_wxman have noticed this consistent behavior. As someone who always looks at KORH and surrounding areas, this isn't some made up thing. KBOS had the same issue 4 years ago and was corrected. For the record, KPVD seems to have the opposite problem. It's been too cool.
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Just FYI on KORH. It has had a warm bias of nearly 2F over the last 2 years or so.
