That was a coastal storm that back in NW off Nantucket. This is sort of different in that it acts more like a cutter initially. But, it has some warm core characteristics.
The euro verbatim is real nasty in ern areas.
I think most said closer to the 20th or after even late Novie. I did think we'd have some chances (even of light) before Christmas, but that didn't happen really. Unless we hope some crazy think happens next week.
I heard some interesting responses as to why the pattern did not move forward as anticipated 2 weeks or so ago. Over the last two months each of the MJO passages were followed by a big downwelling couplet. This latest one has not featured that and in fact combined with a standing wave at the dateline. So there might have been enhanced mass transport north...IE fueling the PAC jet. We finally are seeing a Nino response.
I think once that subsides it will help force more of an Aleutian low. Indeed you can see that on guidance.