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CoastalWx

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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. CoastalWx
    I think for the surge itself that wording is definitely needed for a 3.
  2. CoastalWx
    Looks like an east shift a bit and weaker by NHC.
  3. CoastalWx
    It’s got the zit looking towers going up. You want to see more widespread deeper convection. Helene suffering from an acne problem.
  4. CoastalWx
    It’s definitely fighting some dry air. Can see it on IR.
  5. CoastalWx
    I would guess the dry air issue is factoring into models currently.
  6. CoastalWx
    00z early cycle track still west of TLH to ATL, but intensity dropped significantly. More like a high end category 2 borderline 3.
  7. CoastalWx
    I’ll look a little more when I put kids to bed, but first glimpse looks good there. Probably cane gusts.
  8. CoastalWx
    Yea northern eyewall will be intense just as it makes landfall.
  9. CoastalWx
    I think it will apply here to an extent.
  10. CoastalWx
    Yeah NHC track would move those winds more to the west.
  11. CoastalWx
    Luckily I’m not forecasting lol.
  12. CoastalWx
    I’m guessing the winds as it moves north may be skewed more east by the time it gets to ATL latitude. At least I hope.
  13. CoastalWx
    One thing to think about is that you need to be east of the eye and not just center for strong winds. So if the eye is large, and it passes over say TLH….theyll get raked, but it will be eastern suburbs that get it. It’s one reason why I think TLH and ATL won’t be on the worst side. Well at least I hope.
  14. CoastalWx
    I saw that lol.
  15. CoastalWx
    Gfs still stubborn
  16. CoastalWx
    Yep. Tropical models usually work best. This will be interesting.
  17. CoastalWx
    I also was under the impression that some are also new and these plots are positions extracted from the grib files etc. The HWRF shown on that is definitely different compared to the 12z runs. Admittedly though I'm not 100% sure how those early runs are collected.
  18. CoastalWx
  19. CoastalWx
    Not much of a move on the 18z tropical models. Maybe a tad more spread to the E, but overall pretty consistent location wise.
  20. CoastalWx
    I didn't zoom in or anything, but NHC track at 11a seemed close to the tropical models at 12z. I generally follow the tropical models..but you have some good globals now still to the east. If I had to guess, NHC may ever so slightly adjust E at 5p.
  21. CoastalWx
    Man tough call. I also feel like I would take the NHC track and nudge it east too..but the differences in impacts are literally night and day.
  22. CoastalWx
    For Atlanta and Tallahassee it will really come down to track. NHC track is bad, but it would not shock me if we get some east ticks. So for Atlanta, if it moves east of the city, winds on the west side will be strong, but 40-55 vs 75+ is a huge difference. The inv trough that starts to set up after Helene makes landfall will help keep the LLJ on east side of the low. So we are talking massive differences in wind at both locations depending on track.
  23. CoastalWx
    Don't forget overestimating gusts by 75%.
  24. CoastalWx
    Andy! Didn't know you were in ATL now. Hope all is well, bud.
  25. CoastalWx
    I was driving up rt 16 back in like 2012 around Chocorua Lake in NH. There was about 5-6 buses stopped with people from India literally in awe. They seemed like they were taken aback by what they saw. Taking pictures, stopping traffic and everything. Looked like many were praying too. So yeah, goes to your point.
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