CoastalWx

First off, this isn't even close to those. Secondly, who said bust? Describing the storm issues and why it's struggling is different than saying "This storm won't do shit, Mets and models all suck, what a bust!"

A win for the globals here.

I heard that too. Just not a big fan of extrapolation determining the winds without the help of other tools.

Is the upgrade based on FL winds? Would be nice to get some reports from the surface.

I'd say vis and IR looking markedly better last hour. She's getting her act together imo.

I was wondering as well. John virtually stalled and outflow sort of channeling towards Helene. Might be keeping the mid level dryness hanging around to the SW of Helene a bit longer than it looked two days ago.

Because of the way the atmosphere works. You can be off just slightly, and the whole forecast goes to shit. Models off by even 10% RH in a large depth of the column are possible for sure. And then there goes the forecast.

It is far from the king and virtually unusable lately. The spaghetti plots and globals like GFS and Euro also have different physics etc. Perhaps the more complicated interactions with the short wave troughs favored the globals a bit this go around. But, over the years I've also learned not to discount the tropical models. I know in New England, when they sniff that east trend with the westerlies, forget it. It's over. That's why hopefully humans can add value and try to adjust the forecast accordingly. There is also high stakes here and you need to weigh all of this when doing a forecast. It's easy for weenies to make a call sitting back at their desk..but it's a whole other level when your forecast is driving evacuations with billions of dollars in assets on the line as well as human lives.

Not that I encourage using the HRRR for this right now, but check out the srfc wind gusts for this. I think the idea of what it shows makes sense. A very large windfield to the east that rips into SC. Also, the backside of this with the pressure rises in the ATL area likely bring the strongest winds there on the backside. But man the rains in the high country of NC and SC.

Read his correction he made. Why you mad, son?

Note that the storm will follow a more parabolic shape between points there on the models. It's not going to abruptly change direction at each point on those models.

I'm dying.

Those tropical models usually are closer to being correct. The globals like the gfs and euro (euro has been shit lately) are good..but I believe what Osumetstud posted, showed higher position errors vs the tropical models. However, when the globals and tropical models differ this close to landfall, usually one set sort of caves closer to the other. Indeed the early cycle 12z stuff ticked east again. Sometimes this stuff happens. That's why we as humans hopefully can add value and not let the machines take over.

Greta got us.

It needs to wrap deep convection further around the center, but yeah eye is starting to clear out a bit.

It's also why I am more concerned with interior SC and NC. This is going to be a good hit there wind wise. CLT may gust higher than ATL to be honest.

The doppler velocity image is telling. Those areas well east of center will get whacked real good.

That water will get high in Tampa with this a little further east. As soon as the wind goes from SE-SW-WSW..it will pile in.

It's going to get pretty bad there. Hate to say it.

Meanwhile mtns of SC will slide into the Atlantic.

The wind issue to me is east of TLH into the areas near and E of Valdosta to east of Macon and on NNE to western SC. Peak winds anyways. Macon May get it good.

I was never really sold on the west of TLH to ATL tracks though. I did get a little nervous when those tropical models were stubborn, but it looks like they’ll tick east enough to avoid worst-case.

Yeah I think ATl and perhaps TLH dodged one. West side of this will certainly be weaker I think.

Yeah I’m sure they’re probably being careful here. I get it.

Definitely looks better on IR. So she’s starting the process.