Could be really nasty Tuesday night in the Dacks to NNE. That has a nasty look to it.
Of course timing on NAM is such where it's more PA and SE NY state Wednesday aftn.
Yeah that blew up out of no where.
HRRR looks more active now. Makes sense where it shows convection near seabreeze boundaries. Probably a Taunton to ern CT and RI day? They’ll be stuff elsewhere too.
I don’t know, models aren’t enthused. Maybe s coast gets a boost from seabreeze front. Cold pools usually do well so we’ll see. Maybe I’ll go over the HRRR, but typically it’s excited for these.
It’s one metric skewed by one storm. I think there a few reasons why this season so far has been quieter in terms of named events. I know you want the ACE for winter lol.
Some of the theories are interesting. I certainly just want to understand it better. My guess a though later September into November will be quite busy.
I get the ACE argument mostly due to one storm. But I’m pretty sure most did not expect it to be so quiet. Those forecasts for 25-33 storms probably will be in trouble.
There’s been a few theories out there. One being ITCZ shifted pretty far north allowing more dust and also waves avoiding very warm water.
It will obviously get more active, but definitely quieter than many thought so far.