CoastalWx

So the new GFS has a cold bias, but still can’t resolve CAD? That’s awesome.

Oh boy. Gfs at hr 384. Let the buns fly.

Still drizzle. At least we got a good drink.

I'll take that. Playing with dumbfoundation there, but there's some convergence near Maine to keep the cold locked in. I need to look at the euro seasonal.

I'm not angry? Looks nice on satellite though. Why can't we get that?

The Perfect Bust.

By the way, another thing that was brought to my attention about Logan. The dewpoint seem to be too low as well.If that indeed continues, then that tells me there may be something wrong with the instruments themselves.

Great pics guys. Even down here on I-93 the colors have really popped.

Well the EPS now has a +PNA look in the 11-15 day so it might not be much change. I guess my overall point is that do not concern yourself so much with NPAC SSTs in October. In 2011, we had that massive trough over that region for months, starting Sept-Oct. I think when you have big anomalies either way in the NPAC, it can help feedback a bit too. But IMO, it is not a leading driver of the hemispheric pattern.

NPAC SSTs are not a good indicator IMO. I'll say this until I am blue in the face, but they can change quickly and are a product of the H5 pattern, not the other way around. Our biggest driver in terms of SSTs and the pattern are down in the tropical areas. This is where all the warm water is. These waters are what help to drive the MJO which then has a bigger impact to the Rossby wave look and the H5 pattern. All those years that had a prolonged surface warm pool in the NPAC featured an overall MJO standing wave look west of the dateline. Think 2013-2015ish.

October? The only seasonal signal this early that may give you a clue is ENSO. That is whether we are nino or Nina. We are sort of neither right now. With most a strong signal, it’s tough to say what will happen. So certainly something like a trough near AK at this time will not spook me. It’s part of their weather in then fall. Hell in winter too.

It’s way too early for concern. AK in fall is rather stormy so it’s not uncommon. If the Death Star happens near Thanksgiving and shows no signs of stopping on ensembles or sub seasonal guidance, then maybe I’ll be a little more concerned.

Taking forever to download. Anyways those blobs are a function of sun kissed SSTs from ridging aloft. And 2015-2016 was dry in CA relatively speaking?

Should be a nice milder look going forward for a little while.

Jesus Brian. I hope this bad streak ends. I hope all is well.

That storm in the Plains does develop a text book TROWAL and deformation zone.

I don't think many will care about a few cows buried.

Trough out in the Rockies. Looks mild in the east.

Way too far out to know. No issues if gfs is right.

Wind probably causing what we call compression issues. For safety, aircraft are spaced apart farther.

EPS has a similar look too.

This is more of a prolonged deal so I see why it has that. But, that would have to be well placed and a firehose.

That’s kind of wild. Tough to buy.

Euro is pretty far NW later this week.