CoastalWx

Well there are all flavors of Nino. Hell even Super Ninos like 15/16 through in a blizzard for NYC south and gave us a 10" blitz bomb in Feb. But that stormy look is usually good. I also think it's important to keep it real. I don't think people need to assume 04/05 is coming because one says a "nino" look. And it also could be just temporary. But from a winter storm standpoint, we take that. It doesn't need to be super cold. It won't be imo.

The birds chirping right now, and blossoms in the common are a nice January touch.

You guys would certainly get doubt at least. Meaning your spot. I mean what are we talking under .75" total I suppose? Seems like this is a lot of 4-7" stuff where it's all snow in SNE? 7 being max and more isolated I think. Still early, we'll see what 12z does.

Nino look in deep winter across the northeast? That's our bread and butter outside of a raging Nino. I will take that over Tippy gradient ruler flow any day. Do they all work out? No, but that's a pattern with much better prior success vs a nina look.

So far so blow except for 2 weeks. We'll see how it goes.

To be honest, this little shuffling was on some guidance, but sometimes the mean smoothes it out. The overall players like ridging out west are there. Seems like now we have split flow and perhaps higher heights in Quebec. Typically a stormy look for the northeast, but not usually very cold. I am a little surprised at the changes last few days, but they aren't all that drastic in the big picture. It's like everything. You can't predict details that far out. You look at the big picture and the overall look. To me, if I saw any concerns, it (interior rejoices) would be coastal huggers vs cutters IMO.

It's why I wasn't a fan of this setup a few days ago. Just not for our part of the world anyways. That said, it's a fairly cold system. Srly winds and barely getting the 540 line to KTAN means above 850 it's chilly. So while below 850 will warm, we have a little wiggle room with the airmass...both antecedent and aloft. Normally that's an inch of crud followed by rain, but perhaps 2-3 if it works out. Dryslot races in, so nobody in SNE is cashing in on this one.

An El nino look is pretty good this time of year. You don't need to Polar Express.

Rains to Maine’s?

More diarrhea of the clouds.

Looks like a warmer solution on the euro this weekend.

Nah just a nice all snow event would be cool. Not even a block buster. 4-6" all snow would be great. Every effing storm even inland has been ptype issues.

That's where I'm at. Show yourself or get lost. This last month has been terrible, except for this weekend.

Yeah, I'm at the point where winter needs to shit or get off the pot. This weekend was great. I'm done with transitional ptype bullcrap.

Not to mention Tblizz feeling bullish is a lock for this to turn lousy.

Just speaking for my hood. Not a fan of this setup.

Snow maps ftl

I'm not using tricks..lol.

Verbatim GFS turns to rain even taking into it's bad CAD bias to 128 easily. But not before a few to several inches. Anyways, it's one run. I do like the airmass prior to it.

Looks good for the interior. Coast will have issues with that flow, but a few inches prior to any rain.

JU-NO. Note the "NO" part.

Dude, not gonna happen.

It won't. They already went there with testing equipment and could not find a significant error. But clearly the evidence points to something being off.

Thursday looks like junk in SNE. That is a Dryslot dandy. Hopefully GFS is correct this weekend...but not sure I buy a Miller B at the moment.

What a crazy 24 hrs