CoastalWx

Ray>Kevin

The weenie force of Weymouth is strong.

Maybe it will!

I know I said this yesterday, but hell of a winter event even a month from now.

Not a bad look. Siggy difference from other guidance.

The bump north with part 1 is actually better for you guys.

No help from the GFS with part 2, but part 1 more robust for the drought duo in SE MA.

Synoptically they probably are due for one of those. It's just real hard to get anything 18" or more in the lakes region, but I think Brian has the better chance where he is. The Lakes Region is more known for the 6-10" deals and CAD.

I wouldn't expect any surprise solutions. From here on out, you'll want to see some bumps north and corrections that we noted in the s/w down south. You'll want that to maintain a sharper orientation and have it a bit further north for anything more than flakes or a coating. The whole system seems to have gotten a little more robust and further north on the 12z runs today. You won't see any massive shifts this close in, but they'll likely be more "bumps" north...especially with the second part on Friday morning. Speaking more for SNE here.

You'll miss the biggies.

Saw Winni has some light snow currently. Not sure if Brian saw any.

You can see the difference at hr 45 on the 12z vs hr 51 on the 6z at 500mb. Look at how the 12z run is almost more of a neutral tilt. The 6z run was more linear aligned from SW-NE. the 12z run has it aligned more N-S which allows the dynamics to spread the precip north and help curl it back.

30 in BOS verbatim...lol. Not sure about that unless it's going pretty good.

Nam tried to wrap up the second wave just a bit more. Verbatim even brings some snow here, locally.

Hadleyween on Saturday,

He needs to make a t-shirt of some giant 500mb ridge with razor sharp teeth taking out the East Coast.

Euro even 36 hrs ago had Zeta and the ULL closer, and the ULL much more robust. Even the EPS. Not impressed with the Euro lately. I suppose the GFS did too..but it wasn't carrying the juicy solutions as much as the euro.

That wasn't the main cause of the snow, it was the system following it. That is getting kicked east.

The massive +AO is the main reason for the fast flow. That is what we've had the last few years.

With the ULL in TX? Wouldn't surprise me.

Early next week? IPAs FTL this morning?

I'd say more seasonal to mild, and that is how it has look on the ensembles so I see no change. Hell of a cold shot early next week.

RGEM got off the sauce I see. I didn't see the trends we are looking for overnight. Still could be some snow to end, however. We'll see what today brings.

It's fine to start a thread. As if that has anything to do with the outcome. People are bored and it's an interesting look for late October. So what if it's started?

Looks like another bout of winter again for the Plains near Veterans Day as -PNA takes shape. Looks rather mild and mundane here, but that is not a change from guidance.