CoastalWx

Kevin just logged on in his 2009 Yankee footy PJs.

NAM was about to go apeshit.

I think that second part was about to take off when it stopped at hr 90.

Yeah you can see how it's fairly progressive too. Just sort of moves right along.

It was about to go off too. If you look at 700 and 500, it really can't get much further north than that. Probably would move ENE out under LI and it intensifies.

This was second half of Novie 2011. That area from GOAK to western NAMR is much different on the EPS.

It's a -PNA look. No piggie.

Yeah all true. Just refreshing to talk synoptics for once. It might be awhile before anything else interesting, so hopefully we make the best of this.

That's a heck of an ending though in SNE on the Ukie and Euro. Wouldn't complain about that.

Well that's also climo.

CNE and NNE ftw.

I see a CJ. Actually probably will be OE precip with that cold air.

Yeah it tries. Would be best chance for something interesting. Love that curl up.

Congrats Dendrite?

That’s heavy rain to paste in the interior. CNE pounded.

Ukie is zonked and hammers CNE/NNE. Tries to phase both systems like we were talking about. Still flips many to snow at the end in srn areas.

Really far out to say with confidence. But, I think it's reasonable for areas of NNE down to interior MA to keep an eye on things for sure. I didn't say CT since I think confidence is lower there...but I wouldn't rule anything out for inland CT.

Yep. I know personally that's what I want to see. But Jesus...that setup not too far from now would be a prolonged snow event. That high......

Yeah exactly.

Frigid! I saw that. You could argue the coldest profile below 600mb is at 900mb. In late October no less.

Yeah agreed. Although, given all the circumstances with this including a tropical...that certainly could change one way or another.

12z GFS looks a little more phased at hr 96 compared to hr 102 of the 6z run. The lead weaker s/w from Zeta zips out quick, but a piece of energy diving in at that time tries to phase with the bowling ball that is moving up from the south. I'd like to see that really blow up the low as it exits stage right. I believe it's the better chance for snow in SNE.

The whole premise supposedly is that winter following the Oct snow myth, is basically mild and less snowy. But some years just had bad luck. 2009 was the Mid Atlantic winter. 2003 was also the PV winter where NYC had more siggy snows. So are we saying October snow results in both suppression, and warm winters? It makes no sense, and when you sample a place like ORH which has had more October snows compared to BOS...there isn't a correlation as far as I am aware of. ORH had lots of October snows in the 60s. I'd say those were decent winters. 2008 had October snow in NJ. We just had trace amounts (maybe a little more in CT?)..so just missed having that as a checkmark for October snow and getting a good winter to follow.

Marion, don't look at it!

Not even a transition, Just right to winter, until you read the November thread.