We said after 1/15 is the best chance, like 2 weeks ago. That still is the case. Yeah it may be quiet next week, but can't see that two weeks out. The big picture is there, just need to have the details, which obviously we cannot see this far out.
The perception is the lack of cutters torching it and giving you those +20 days. Bud it’s just been steady AN with the lows seemingly driving it. But even here, upper 30s to near 40 during the day and lows in the 20s will give AN readings for sure during peak cold Climo.
Medium range is beyond 10 days though, which you cancelled. I agree it may be quiet until 20-21 or so, but I wouldn’t totally wouldn’t rule out something before then. Hell even nrn and western NE may see something this weekend.
Man lots of reports I’ve seen from Japan of massive sea-effect snow with 100mph winds on the western coast. Then you also have Shanghai in the deep freeze. Someone is getting it at least.
We've had -PNA/-NAO deals before. I think overall the type of -NAO ridging is more closer to Greenland in those cases? It's also far out there, but even the less bullish guidance did have a semblance of ridging there.