NAM is a late phase that moves east before turning NE and getting the low off of Nantucket.
This is one of the more complicated setups I’ve seen. You have the s/w (more like an ULL) stretched SW-NE from OK to MO. Another similar one over nrn Mexico. It’s then a matter of when does the s/w over OK/MO get sucked east. A real timing issue there. The other issue is the s/w coming into Lake Superior at hr 72 and how or if that acts as a kicker in a way.