CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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Haha yep. Speaking of, 12z gfs clobbers the Berks into monads.
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Probably a 6 hr window where it goes nuts before the slot.
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Without seeing the gfs, I noticed guidance CAA a tad at 925 into interior NE MA and slings that into CT and RI. What you need to see is the combo of being in that slightly cooler air along with significant lift. Having that CAA will help a bit in interior eastern areas that are a little lower. It’s obviously nice to see in the higher spots too. The other guidance like Reggie has that only further NW.
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That’s about as good as your COVID takes.
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Certainly is. High stakes on which one is right. The other hi res guidance kept the low more near cape cod bay.
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Kidding
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Hopefully CCB into eastern CT and N and NW. Hole over Tolland county and back bent WF gets Weha and Wiz as well as are friends west of the river.
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AEMATT
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Yeah some models Show a band along the occluded back bent mid level front.
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For the lower spots below like 600’ or so, I think you need this to absolutely nuke. Once intensity let’s up it’s probably sloppy snow at 36F. You’ll need the dynamics to go nuts for any accumulation more than an inch or two. Even higher elevations may warm to like 34 and have melting when intensity let’s up. But if it’s S+ it will be right at 32 and accumulating above 990’
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So far the convective models are nailing Worcester and interior NE MA along 495 and west of 93. Even down to western Norfolk county. WRF NSSL drags in warmer air into Essex county. But the other two models look good even for Ray.
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Yes. Put away the 10:1 clowns.
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It’s about 3-6 there.
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3k Nam has low into RI. Back to a Berks mauling.
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Some areas may actually flip to snow and then rain as dynamics weaken a bit after 18z. Still impressive.
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Unstable above it too. Might even have thunder. 495 crusher.
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Doubt it.
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HRRR keeps going east.
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Yeah exactly Steve. That’s a good illustration of what I was saying. Will losing every tree in his yard.
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It looked like coldest temps near and to 925 were west of 128. Looked a little tied to forcing and slightly less maritime influence. 25 miles east and all bets are off.
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Oh the accordions that would be playing.
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I was honestly kidding.
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I saw. FWIW GRAF does something similar to the NAM, but the dynamics can't quite flip it over like the NAM. Gets the ORH area on north good though.
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Add the 06z BTV WRF too.
