CoastalWx

A frost advisory is when temps are forecasted to be 33-36 to cover the possibility of light frost, but to me...36 is not a frost.

36 counts as a frost?

I will say, I enjoy being able to toss the euro. Years ago, when the euro had something at day 5, you paid attn even when other guidance had nothing. But now, when other guidance has nothing and euro shows 2" of rain....we toss. Euro overall is a good model, but the GFS and Canadian, UKMO etc have gotten better.

Thanks, yeah the moist process thing is real. It's had some wild PWAT solutions in TX..I think at one point I saw a 4" PWAT modeled lol.

What's the simple cliff notes on the upgrade in terms of what changed and results?

We grow.

Ginxy said it landed in his brother's yard in Omaha.

WoW!

I think KBG is, but tall fescue reminds me of the crap they throw on the medians of highways because it's more drought resistant.

LOL, that's a good one.

Raking poop?

Right, that's why I said "typically" and "generally." It's not always, but Nina's generally more -PNA dominated.

That's pretty cool.

Sell the flakes here. Still giant GOAK trough, but will cool off a bit next week. Enjoy summer this week.

It typically is a -PNA which usually is lower than normal heights from AK into the Rockies. El Niño is the opposite. Because of our latitude we can do fairly well in Nina’s, especially if the dateline ridging is more poleward. Sometimes you can get real lucky and get a period of blocking to really make it snowy and turn those lows that would cut, into either SWFEs or Miller Bs that redevelop under SNE. You also can play with fire in that pattern if the troughing out west is really deep and/or a raging +NAO. 07-08 was probably the one winter where the NAO was so positive, it set up confluence to our northeast and forced would be cutters to redevelop more towards the cape and SE MA. In general, SNE does better when the ENSO phases are on the weaker side. You generally don’t want strong Nino or Nina.

Some of these guys are hacks too. If I’m paying 500+ bucks for a cleanup, it better be licked clean.

That’s his AmWx password.

A La Nina means trough in the west. And also, how would a trough in the west mean us whiffing?

That and the ARW. But I think you’ve been ok last several years overall.

I didn’t look at the specifics yet. Is that one of the results? That’s great then. However, how does that help the tropics which rely on that for development? Also, I saw how it had a bias for high PWATs. It went nuts in TX for that TC a few weeks ago. I didn’t realize how bad that was, but that argues in your argument about diabatic craziness.

I mean everyone gets excited because it nails the PWAT over UOOO, but misses a major hurricane in the Caribbean. Yay upgrade!

We will see.

Ripping fatties too in that. That was fun.

I remember Kevin's post. Sleeting at 19, while HYA was S+ and 33F.