CoastalWx

The rates are going to get some. Like areas maybe north of pike have longer duration. It's possible near and south of pike get a break and then just monster rates for 3-4 hrs will be the main rain event. It's possible during this time that 3-5"+ falls in that 3-4 hrs.

Globals using synoptics like 700 fronto, while mesos using the WF for lift.

BOX disco mentioning what I was saying yesterday regarding the models and what they are focusing on regarding globals and mesos. So, still some differences. But I’d say mesos nudged north too.

Yep.

3K a little less crazy, but same idea near WF.

Luckily it’s load blown SW to a point, but we’ll see.

HRRR continues to highlight s coast along warm front. Hell of a soaking everywhere else.

I wish they could train and observer at Logan. This is ridiculous. There’s options around, but not sure how this season shakes out.

Doth be too cold to cut thy trees.

Will be neat to see it play out. Looks like fun down your way regardless.

Yeah maybe a min...but probably still a soaking. Reggie is along S coast too.

Yeah. Wherever that is, will be where it gets crazy.

I probably lean mesos for now with a nod to euro for global. It's still a tropical system that yes is becoming ET, but it's the warm season. Convective blobs can do weird things to models. My 2 pennies....Areas maybe pike to SNH see a prolonged mdt to heavy rain event, but may not get the uber rates. The areas south may get Steined for awhile, but could get 2-4"+ in a couple of hours with spinner risk near low center and on warm front. Tough to say who jacks. I do like the HRRR look on the warm front fwiw.

You do on the GFS. The heaviest rains will be near the WF. That's near the S coast on the GFS.

Not much of a stein if you get 2-3”

I'm not saying no wind, but those look way too aggressive overall.

Looks like the last two HRRR runs. Right on WF.

They are. It won't be 60+.

Like I said 7" or Stein.

18z HRRR...I like that depiction. Notice how it has the heavy rain near the warm front. That's how I envision it, but of course where does the warm front end up? Look at all those cells along the front.

Now we demand north.

Dendrite and Lava in the goods on the EPS. Chickens washed away and canyons for Lava.

Hydro

Yeah I'll sell those values....but almost like a gravity wave thing is strong isallobaric component?

That brief spike in winds on all guidance.