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CoastalWx

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. That was before 12/20. When we thought it looked better, but the -PNA just was on roids and did not really shift east. If you go to the January pattern thread, this period after the 10th looks pretty good. So my comment about the gravy period I think stands. Weather is weather. Sometimes it doesn’t behave the way we think. Likewise if this doesn’t shift west, oh well. Out of my control until the next time a similar thing happens and it goes from the benchmark to tainting Kevin.
  2. I just don't see how one complains this winter. Enjoy what falls. This was always the "gravy" period anyhow.
  3. I noticed that on the nam. It starts out as a really tiny area of precip. I was wondering if the moisture to the east was interfering with it.
  4. I'd like for you to define that. Is that because we are using our experience to say how it could come more west and that is being misunderstood as someone with weenie glasses on? I think we all acknowledged why guidance is doing what it has shown for 12z solutions. It's a weather forum where we are talking out loud about possible outcomes. If you put a gun to my head, I'd be more leery of my earlier thoughts, but I guess I'm not sure why you said what you said.
  5. Things still look pretty good I would say. After we go through a little flux later in the 6-10 day (which may have some storminess) it looks pretty sweet after. Luckily that has not changed.
  6. It is clear that srn stream of vorticity and the leftover convection is playing a role. But again, if that s/w comes in a bit stronger (and very possible it does as it is sampled better) then it won't matter much.
  7. Seems like his hands felt like two balloons?
  8. I will say watch that srn streamer of vorticity. That is what excites a little low with the convection SE of HSE. That is playing a role. But if that main s/w is stronger, it won't matter much.
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