We just need to move that trough east toward the Rockies and that’s what happens after Christmas. Things will get better at that time as the NAO block moves west.
The EPS is definitely not like the op. But this is also why I mentioned a few issues with the pattern to look out for before Wolfie attacked me. I still feel like post Christmas is what we always have been rooting for. That hasn’t changed.
Later in the 11-15 day actually shows this. I know you don't want the SE ridge, but to me, that's a more active look with a cold source nearby. Maybe more SWFE or overrunning?