CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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The Arctic sand is usually shitty growth caused by lift in a very cold profile. That’s when you get the tiny flakes and Needles. Sometimes the dryslots have that because the snow growth zone dried out and you’re left with lift somewhere in the column that is not conducive to good flakes.
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Man you can see how this would be a nuke if that shit convection moved out. This thing wants to blow.
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Looks like the weenie train starts picking up passengers tomorrow?
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RAP does that nicely too.
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Wicked Tuna FTL there.
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Just hoping for 5-6"+. I don't expect nor care about jacks. At this point, I just want to enjoy some snow.
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I meant as a local jack for them. I could see that or somewhere within there to SNH or NE MA. That initial weenie band.
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Congrats you and Dave on HRRR. It's possible.
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HRRR trying for more double low meh.
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I could see some angry posts to start if the HRRR is right. Initial band is well NW and many in ern CT into RI and ern MA patiently wait. That probably will happen. Those areas will slam an hour or two later.
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Someone will get 5.5" and complain for sure.
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Remember when you saw your location in the all white 6"+ zone? LOL.
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I have said the opposite in a few winters haha.
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Euro looks similar QPF wise. At least on my graphics.
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Well if it's one of those SWFE deals, H7 might be warm, so I would look a little higher. Unfortunately many sites don't show 600mb, so you'd have to interpolate between 700 and 500. 850mb level usually is a good way to see if you have strong inflow and warm air advection. Many times that level is below the ideal snow growth area, unless it's very cold out. Sometimes just north of the 850mb warm front has heavy precip.
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The Arctic sand is usually shitty growth caused by lift in a very cold profile. That’s when you get the tiny flakes and Needles. Sometimes the dryslots have that because the snow growth zone dried out and you’re left with lift somewhere in the column that is not conducive to good flakes.
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I don't really see any pronounced dryslots or anything. Obviously if you are well west then it might not be as much snow. Usually soundings might show subby areas or areas of poor snow growth where the lift corresponds to a temperature a little too warm or too cold for ideal snow growth. You don't always need giant dendrites either. Good snow rates with plate type flakes are fine too. Many times the "ideal" time to get the fluffy dendrites is fleeting unless you are lucky to be in a persistent band.
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You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air rises. You snow.
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In my 700mb image, the temps near 700 are cold, so the band of snow probably is closer to the thermal packing.
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But Will is right, it could be higher or lower depending on the temperatures. A quick and dirty way of doing it is looking at temperature gradients. If 700mb looks warm and the DGZ is higher, look at the 500mb temps. Your nice banding probably is in between...say 600mb. You'll just need to interpolate a bit.
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I tend to look at H7 more because that corresponds to the snow growth area typically. You typically want to be just on the colder side of the fronto packing shown. The atmosphere typically has a circulation up and over that packing, so you will typically see the band of heavy snow just on the colder side of that circulation. In the image below I circled where it might theoretically be in the snap shot.
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Something probably will surprise us. Hopefully for the better....but something likely will happen. I'm not sure guidance is correctly handling the dual low issue.
