CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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GEFS have a nice SWFE look, especially across the interior.
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Still cutterish on the GFS.
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There is a small room to work with. That s/w causing cyclogenesis is a big focus, but there is an ULL pushing SSW in eastern Canada. That tries to push this system ESE.
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Canadian tries a bit more of a CCB. Still a south of pike deal..but it's close.
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Teetering?
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Well nice to see something formidable anyways.
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I saw that ULL slide south...that thing has been playing games with models.
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Congrats Southbury CT on GFS.
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Now that you're below sea level, gonna be tough seeing dark storm clouds to the east and dim sun in Simsbury.
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ICON is kind of interesting.
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The best.
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Lets not forget the dumbfounded variations.
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There's always variations. The classic ones keep you below 32 until the "cold front" passes when you briefly mix the torched air aloft. Over here I may tickle 40ish with east winds but hopefully 6" of man snow is down prior.
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SouthWest Flow Event. These events are usually characterized by strong warm advection aloft (think 850 and above) on SW winds. At the surface many times you get redevelopment just offshore crossing over SE areas. Typically the airmass ahead of them is fairly cold, so snow or mixed precip occurs before any possible changeover. Typically these favor areas with latitude so the farther north you are, the better the chance of more wintry events. Many of a famous Nina's like 2007 and 2008 had these events.
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Well that depends if it cuts or not. Otherwise the warm stuff is over soon.
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Yep, a lot of agreement too after the 14th on a serviceable pacific and lingering higher heights near Davis Straits.
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FWIW I saw some clusters (think of these as groups of ensemble members with similar outcomes) that are now showing more of a SWFE or even redeveloping look for that thing on the 14th. It still might be dicey outside of CNE/NNE...but something to watch if we can get that deal on the 12th, to come in stronger.
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At least Jay gets to have a nice reindeer sweater on Saturday with Andy Williams playing in the background nibbling on a block of cheddar from Shaws. Sounds like a rockin' good time.
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Maybe weak ridging? Not sure about a -NAO though.
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No
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Blocking preventing him from coming northeast.
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Now I know why your posts have been strange lately.
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Check out the s/w. Pretty far north.
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Do me a favor and please stay safe. It’s dangerous out there.
