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RitualOfTheTrout

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Everything posted by RitualOfTheTrout

  1. RitualOfTheTrout
    This time of year is our second peak for severe but I agree, if it's warmer and especially more moisture in the atmosphere as the cold fronts crash into it we may see more "falls" with this kind of weather.
  2. RitualOfTheTrout
    Some pictures I saw around twitter / web of the storms yesterday: TownvillePA_Tornado_small.mp4 Anyways, looks like little chance of sustained fall weather on the horizon.. Seems these "anomalous" ridges are becoming more common place. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The extended forecast will be predicated on the position and strength of the anomalous 500h ridge that is expected to blossom over the eastern US. Ensembles are coming into better agreement now showing the ridge amplifying Saturday and Sunday and sitting directly over the Carolinas. This will not only increase the temperatures across the region, but this very strong subsidence should be able to provide an extended dry period beginning Sunday and continuing through the remainder of the long term. Temperature will remain above seasonal average into next week. Consistency among models in an anomalously-strong upper ridge in the Mid-Atlantic region has increased for early next week, which suggests maxima could reach well into the 80s. In fact, sounding climatology suggests that H5 height at Pittsburgh could near record values.
  3. RitualOfTheTrout
    Crazy weather evening... Wasn't really expecting this type of activity.
  4. RitualOfTheTrout
    Haha wow.. it looks bad on the NAM, id bet its not the best tool to use for this case.. looks like one of the maps from that movie "Day After Tomorrow"
  5. RitualOfTheTrout
    Luckily wind won't be much of a factor I don't think. Hopefully most of the runoff has worked it's way out of here by Monday night next week so flooding would be minimal from another 2in, but the ground will be pretty saturated so could see another round of mud slides, also, if it tracks a little closer we end up closer to 3-4 inches which would be troublesome for sure.
  6. RitualOfTheTrout
    That stall and SW slide down the coast is just crazy... Storm surge coupled with all the rain and wind for 42+ hours is just really unprecedented. Starting to wonder what's going to be left standing... Our family vacations in Topsail frequently.. thinking it may be awhile before we get back after this one.
  7. RitualOfTheTrout
    Wow.. NWS says another 1-2 possible. It's been pretty light the last hour or so but more headed this way. You could make a run at 8 inches.
  8. RitualOfTheTrout
    Hopefully we get a day like this in winter only white not wet.
  9. RitualOfTheTrout
    00z spaghetti model. These have the recon data. If you are looking for effects here I think the dramatic reduction of speed will limit even if it took a good track. Look how little it moves from HR 120 to 144 VS earlier. Verbatim as modeled now a huge disaster for NC.
  10. RitualOfTheTrout
    Yeah welcome, now you have closer company as we all soak in our winter misery.
  11. RitualOfTheTrout
    4-6 inches looks likely. With models starting to advertise a slow down of forward motion to possibly stall of Florence after landfall (assuming it even makes it) I'd put impacts here as unlikely. Typically we need forward speed to increase after landfall to see impacts or some sort of interaction with a trough. All of this is subject to change though, but biggest impact would likely be more rain on top of what we see this weekend vs any wind or other impacts.
  12. RitualOfTheTrout
    Beat me to it! Tropical season is like the preseason for winter in my book Sunday definitely looking like a wash out thanks to Gordan remnants and the stalled boundary. Expect we will see flood headlines from NWS. Florence bucking recent history if it makes landfall from current lat / long, but if the models are right on the steering ridge lookout as the conditions a day or so from now look ripe for intensification. Models look to have 2 camps, one with a SC/NC border landfall (this scenario seems to favor some impact here) and the other camp recurving but close enough for coastal impact. Margin of error for track at this lead though is hundreds of miles, but will be fun to keep an eye on and shake some rust off tracking skills.
  13. RitualOfTheTrout
    This storm is intense... Mother nature putting on her own 4th of July show right now.
  14. RitualOfTheTrout
    These torrential flash floods and mud slides are getting worse than winter in terms of having to check what roads I can use to get to work each morning... Luckily for me I've either passed before or after so no major impact. We were in the pool yesterday and all of the sudden a blast of cool air dropped the temperatures and within 5-10 minutes all hell broke lose. Nice example of gust front induced storms.
  15. RitualOfTheTrout
    Some more info and pictures form the Trib website: https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/13809855-74/officials-tornado-touches-down-in-westmoreland-county Crazy how it seems so calm. That area in general (Greensburg \ Latrobe) seems to be a relative hotbed for tornado activity. There must be some orographic or other micro climate things going on.
  16. RitualOfTheTrout
    Looks like a hot weekend coming up... Could we take a run at 100? GFS is probably out to lunch getting that close but it's been awhile for the area if memory serves.
  17. RitualOfTheTrout
    Sad News... Joe Denardo has passed away. One of the best on-air weathermen ever in Pittsburgh. RIP. http://www.wtae.com/article/legendary-wtae-chief-meteorologist-joe-denardo-dies-at-87/21550800
  18. RitualOfTheTrout
    Yeah, a lot of water predicted by the GFS. Looks like its showing some interaction with that tropical system down in FL too. I would also guess this is fairly unusual for May? I don't follow tropical to closely unless I'm planning a vacation along the East Coast, or there is a shot at some remnants hitting us, so not sure how unusual this might actually be or how likely the GFS is just out to lunch.
  19. RitualOfTheTrout
    At this point I'm wondering do we look to break some records and see snow in May? Today certainly looked like winter and even managed some snow accumulation during the day. Pretty impressive for April 17th.
  20. RitualOfTheTrout
    Euro on board with similar output:
  21. RitualOfTheTrout
    This. I agree by the way the rule is written there was a valid reason to "review" the play but it was ruled a touchdown on the field. He was down on his knee with full control of the ball before making a move towards the goal line, had control of the ball has it broke the plane of the goal line up and until there was some movement as his hands hit the ground. It's really leaving this interpretation up to a human and I certainly didn't think the outcome from video review was 100% conclusive.. In other news the snow storm we had a few days back on Christmas day has been awarded to NE, ruin our football and steal our snow!
  22. RitualOfTheTrout
    This winter is so depressing I can't even go into the New England forum and live vicariously through them...
  23. RitualOfTheTrout
    I'd love to live there when you can count on LES almost every year...
  24. RitualOfTheTrout
    You referring to the blizzard last year? I got like 4-5 inches out of that, just missed the good stuff. So I'll reserve the right to cry and moan about frozen water (or lack there of) falling from the sky and laying in my yard.
  25. RitualOfTheTrout
    So since this seems to be over performing for everyone (posters in the South especially) what is better, having a big snowfall modeled at least 2-3 days in advance and it actually verifying so you get to soak in all the hype etc, or something like this that ends up being more than forecast with advisories and warnings be added \ upgraded on the fly?
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