Couple of things. SSTs are very warm, dews are moist. Any convective elements will be gusty above 50. Hopefully high winds stays to my west and south. Most of my damage storms though feature an anomalous southern jet with SE winds at the surface.
We have watched the Euro gust maps with these southerly event storms and they have performed pretty damn good. Those maps are not any different from what Ryan said. When you see Euro soundings like this you need to raise HWW pretty far inland.
Izzy's story is yet tbd as models have changed daily as well as its impacts. Seeing upstream what I see is perhaps more of a typical parabolic swing off the coast which would mean just a great rain storm enhanced by barotrophic influences
Much much stronger. Those outer bands gave us 70 plus mph gusts leading to week plus of no power. Irene maintained its integrity up until NYC. Different animal