I know everyone here picks apart every model run (and I do at times as well), but I’m all about the bigger picture in general these days. And if Justin Berk’s FB post doesn’t have you all fired up after this one…
Looking Beyond This Rainy Weekend....
Let's GEEK OUT a bit about Winter turning WINTRY in the new year
ALL SIGNS Point to a VERY COLD JANUARY- and maybe quite snowy...
Here is the European Model Ensemble Jet Stream for next Thursday Jan 2, 2025. The start of the colder pattern for the Eastern US. As a high ridge builds for the Western US, it will enhance the pattern.
The temperatures are also the ENSEMBLE for Baltimore's BWI. The cold air may be followed by a second stronger ARCTIC PUSH in the second week of the month.
The North Atlantic Oscillation chart has a very strong cold signal for this time. Many other global patterns support cold and snow including POSITIVE PNA and MJO in Region 8.
The very busy image is the ENSEMBLE SNOW TOTAL. This includes 25 MEMBERS. Yes, the model runs many different versions and if you look closely you can see how that vary.
The only reason I would show you this is to highlight.NOT to look for any snow forecast yet. It is TOO EARLY and any weather showing stuff if purely guess work because of the wider variations father out in time.
What we can do is look at similar patterns and see what they did in the past. I have, and found these comparisons. These are not forecasts, but an idea of what it possible when we see the collection of global signals:
I have seen the 500mb Jet stream analogs:
Jan 1977
Jan 1985
BOTH AMONG THE COLDEST ON RECORD
PLUS 9 to 12 inches of snow recorded in Baltimore.
Dec 1995 - was followed by the blizzard of early Jan '96
32.6 inches of snow total that month at BWI.
Dec 2009 - Part of the 3 Blizzard Winter AND
All Time Snowiest Season = 77 inches of snow.
Jan 2016 = The largest snowstorm on record = 29.2" at BWI.
This is not hype. This is all based on data both looking ahead and historically. It all has given me the strongest Faith in the Flakes in almost a decade.
#FITF