Voyager
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Everything posted by Voyager
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I was going to post about that before. I remember it somewhat well. In Allentown PA we were 14 degrees when it started to rain. The WAA was pretty strong at all levels though, and it didn't take but about a few hours to get above freezing at the surface.
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The only thing this morning is, gotta wonder about surface temps and how they'll play out. I'm sitting at 28f this morning. Five degrees warmer than the 23f that CTP had forecasted for me. High clouds rolled in right before sunset and helped keep radiational cooling at bay overnight.
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Going frame by frame on the 0z HRRR on Tropical Tidbits with sim radar and all I can say is "wow"... IMBY it gives 8 hours of snow before a flip to sleet.
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1st Winter Event of 2018-19 Fall/Winter Season
Voyager replied to ChescoWx's topic in Philadelphia Region
I've ridden on that bus many times my friend, so I can totally relate. -
Absolutely!
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1st Winter Event of 2018-19 Fall/Winter Season
Voyager replied to ChescoWx's topic in Philadelphia Region
33 here and not sure of the DP, but the last part of your post made me laugh...lol -
He may be pretty spot on with his contours, which I rather like. Whether his numbers verify remain to be seen.
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AFD this morning hinted at advisories outside the original warning area. Lets see which models they give more weight to tonight when deciding.
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Me too. The way Canderson worded it, I expected to see almost all of CTP with 5-8 and perhaps Turnpike to I-78 and south in the 2-5.
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From past experiences IMOBY, by the time the deform swings through, the storm is too far north and if we catch some of it, it's not much of a help.
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3k is out to 37 now and...no dryslot, and in fact some super heavy precip moving north. Vast difference between the two wrt to sim radar.
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I agree. Warm air will not be denied. I've seen it so many times. I sit at 825" and if the Lehigh Valley flips, we usually do too. I said over in our own forum that I just can't see more than 3-6 out of this even for my location. The deformation band is the caveat, but how many times does that actually work out?
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12z NAM has a MASSIVE dryslot for southeastern PA @ hour 36...
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Interesting that she's so low in the coal region and the southern Poconos. Up here, WNEP's morning guy (Joe Snedeker) has 7.3" for Allentown and double digits for just about everyone else. And they are USUALLY very conservative...
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I know you guys are kidding and take it all as good fun. If Snedeker is right, though, I just might see that 10 inch total...lol Seriously though, my feeling and thinking is 3-6 at best for my backyard. If we stayed all snow, double digits might be possible, but I think we flip at some point.
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WNEP 16 is being EXTREMELY bullish with their forecast this morning. Double digits for all. Not sure I buy it, but these guys are usually quite conservative, so not sure what they're seeing.
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I think there will be LOTS of taint even up my way (825' elevation) and that the best snows are going to be north and west of my location and up in the Hazleton/McAdoo area northeast through the Pocono Plateau. These are just MY thoughts, and are in no way a forecast or meant to be taken any other way scientifically...
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https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/763-w-406-n/snow-depth-in/20181116-1800z.html
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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread
Voyager replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/799-w-396-n/acc-total-precipitation.html -
I have to go out to Phoenix as my mother needs help with things. If I can figure out/manage to stay out there until April, then it will be a fun winter. If not, then NASO much...
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Let's not get carried away now...lol
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I thought you were doing a play on words, but it certainly is appropriate.
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Mud Atlantic...I like that!
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There are no official records or recording data for Tamaqua PA, Don, but so far today I have 0.68" in the gauge for a yearly total for this year of 66.14".
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WTF???
