Voyager

Rain in Tamaqua now. I can honestly say I did NOT see that coming. Temp creeping up to almost 37 now.

So when do temps crash? Currently up to 36 here and rising rapidly. Snow has totally stopped here as well.

35 here with a somewhat decent rate falling, but the late February midday sun is doing it's dirty work. Even our bare grassy areas are beginning to melt off at the moment.

2 minutes ago, Porsche said:

Can report some nice fatties falling now east of Lancaster in New Holland.

I can report the same here. Would still be classified as light snow, but the flake size has greatly increased.

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I might need to check out for awhile, the emotional roller coaster by some on here is kind of unbearable.

I'm sorry. It's just that past experiences do play into the somewhat negative tone. I'll try to cool it, though.

6 minutes ago, anotherman said:

We all knew this could happen.

Yup. I know I did. I just tried not to think or post about it, but it was always a possibility. 

25 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

If it keeps snowing like it is now till tomorrow morning, we won't have anything to worry about. Seems where i'm located at I might be in the screw zone. Even though I'm technically in the WSW.

I'm getting that nagging feeling myself for Tamaqua.

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That's a painful map and not surprising honestly. Glad I rode my 3-6" call. Hope that isn't too high.

Yup. Seeing the short rangers retreating east definitely gives me pause for concern here in my backyard as well.

30 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

The forum would surely wake up when you start talking about 90 degree heat and 77 degree dewpoints and aa heat index of 115.

I know I shouldn't do this, but, Friday's forecast at my mom's old house in Sun City... 

As per usual, current radar shows a big dryslot over the Skook. It'll eventually fill in, but I've seen it enough times to have it irritate me a bit.

3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

The forum would surely wake up when you start talking about 90 degree heat and 77 degree dewpoints and aa heat index of 115.

It would wake up for sure. It's quite possible my wife would be planning my funeral as well... 

Sure wish this forum would wake up a bit. The Philly and NYC forums are quite active, and as such I'm having to go to them for analysis, obs, and general commentary.

35 minutes ago, Newman said:

The ticks east in the NAM, GFS, and HRRR guidance are very noticeable, we may start to be seeing Berks/Lehigh on the western fringe now with significantly less totals IF models are right. I'm still inclined to believe banding reaches further west but we will 100% have to now cast with this

You're not the only one thinking this. Blizz, in our CPA sub feels the same way. Still, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about ending up in the screw zone up here in the coal region. It's happened too many times to not think it's a viable scenario.

16 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

You can actually see the snow starting to lay just a few hundred feet up. 

It's cool when you can see the snow line like that. Here in Tamaqua, I sit at 825' at the house, but the surrounding "mountains" sit at 1,200 to 1,500 feet. Sometimes, in marginal events, I'll have little if any accumulation, and the mountain tops (especially the trees) will be covered in snow. It's almost like out west when the valleys, like the Phoenix metro area, are warm, and the distant mountains are snow capped.

14 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The entire route 81 area scares me this storm because of that 20-30 mile screw zone that going to set up and be brutal

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

Perusing the models this morning, it seems that they are hinting at it now. I'll say that it wouldn't be the first time that I've sat in that subsidence screw zone. It almost seems inherent to the local region.

Oh, and if I lived just 5 miles east of Tamaqua in Lansford, I'd be under a Blizzard Warning instead of a Winter Storm Warning.

Mt Holly upgraded Carbon and Monroe to the Blizzard Warning. Strangely though, not Lehigh or Northampton.

4 hours ago, Ruin said:

temp down to 29 3 degrees lower then forecast but sure the temps will bounce up due to cloud cover later.

I was the same 29.3 around 10pm last night. It's snowing here now, but the temp shot up to 35 currently.

NAM doing some NAMing @ 18z....unbelievable. 

Gotta love the range from low end to expected to high end for Tamaqua...

16 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

12z AIGFS

The bummer on that view is that the low seems to follow the coast line. If only it stayed in tight right up into Long Island and Connecticut.

It still nails this forum good, but it would help me up in the coal region where I'm riding the sharp cut-off/gradient.

12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

That's the big question.  How many times have we seen significant shifts in the final 24 hours.  If you look across the 12z suite thus far you can see a slight eastward shift, even in some of the lesser talked about models.  Hope this isn't the start of the rug being pulled.

As I said, big concern, only because it has happened before. Hopefully, it's just noise, and perhaps still trends a bit west to help out true central a bit more.

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

That is the scenario we’re all worried about. Damn.

Yup. Big fear. Trending back east a bit at T-24 hours.

24 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Foxyynew just gave me a solid, 1 to 3 . 

Where's her snow map? I don't see any snow map.... 

50 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

Nam kutchera is just stupid insane totals. But again has the edge of Ccb in a similar spot to gfs. Western Berks 9" and eastern 26". Kutchera of course. 

My second water load goes to Lucerne Dairy near Lansdale on Monday. Should get there around 1pm. I wonder how that's going to be if the crazy totals verify...

7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Sunday

Snow before 10am, then snow, possibly mixed with rain between 10am and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 36. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Sunday Night

Snow. Low around 29. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 9 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

Thats my NWS forecast.

Not bragging, but showing. Here's mine...

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Repeat after me… this is nothing like Boxing Day whatsoever!

Back then, NYC was out of it until 24 hours before the storm…

I don't think this will be as bad as 2010, but I just hate I-95 getting the fillet mignon while we get sirloin.