Voyager
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I swear, our weather up here is NOTHING like what you get down there. Every time you guys post about crazy winds, I sit here wondering, "what wind???".
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I just hate that right turn the 18-24 contour takes right when it gets to Schuylkill County.
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18z RGEM Kuchera gives me 36 inches. Can I lock it in?
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Mine's almost the same. No precip amounts, though... Wednesday Snow showers, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Night Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday A chance of snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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A westward shift would possibly put me in the purple 24-28 inch contour.
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Oh yeah, I believe this is going to be a good one! I was speaking of past (and likely future) storms where I sit on the gradient from hell...lol Yes it is. No matter how much we get, we want more, and even if we get clocked by one storm, we'll still be po'd if the next one misses.
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I think the worst for me is when three quarters of the forum is "puking snow" and I'm looking at "pixie dust". I can handle being on the warm side and it being a rainer while it's snowing elsewhere. Getting a leaf blower storm while 30 miles away their digging out gets under my skin.
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For today's obs so far: A mix of rain, sleet, and snow falling. No pavement accumulations, but cars are slushy, and the grass has a white hue to it. Temp is 36 currently.
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I remember that winter quite well. Every storm ran into dry air/confluence right at the Blue Mountain. The gradient was so bad in one storm that Allentown got 16 inches and I got 2 inches
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Thanks guys!
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No problem, thanks. Almost every other model rocks NEPA, except for the GFS.
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What's the GFS seeing that the other models aren't? The Poconos above I-80 don't really get much. That dip south puts me on a tight gradient, perhaps not even seeing a foot here. I believe this is at least the second run that's done this.
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That's probably a good idea. When you have people that look at a snowfall map (with counties and cities indicated) and still have to ask how much for their location, confusion is very likely.
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84 hours on the NAM Kuchera map has 22 inches down in my backyard, and still heavy snow falling for a few hours beyond...
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Well, I hope you're right. It would be the first true deform band I've seen since I've lived up this way. The last one I saw was the epic January 96 one when I lived in Bethlehem. What's nice is that, at least so far, everyone seems to be getting in well with this one! The biggest plus of all is that I'm still in the process of filling out and submitting applications and likely will be able to watch this one from the house.
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It was, briefly, prior to the Hurricane...lol Actually, that day we got clobbered was an anomaly. Storms for some reason that day kept refiring just west of us and dumped.
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SEPA and NNJ have been a qpf jackpot zone since Isaias back in the summer.
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During the last big rainer, I was noting how since Hurricane Isaias, the Lehigh Valley and points south and east seemed to be the qpf jackpot, and I wondered aloud (here) if the pattern set up for this winter was going to feature a lot of SEPA specials. Perusing the models this morning, it seems that every one, sans the ECMWF, wants to do just that with the heaviest qpf axis running I-81 to I-78 and south east. Hopefully this trend doesn't hold, as I'm kind of tired of seeing I-95 jackpots.
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Good to know. Thanks!
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Isn't that what we need for a bigger hit from storm #2?
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Gotta stretch those light blue contours out a bit to the north and east. I want to get in on those 20 inch numbers. And to answer Canderson's question, I'm still me, but as long as I'm not working yet, bring it on...
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Raise it up to 18" and then hope it still doesn't end well...
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Obviously subject to change, but as depicted, I'd see some insane rates during the height of the storm.
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Anything can happen, but it's quite intriguing that so many of the models are showing similar solutions.
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It sure is...
