Syrmax

31 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Open up here. Bville apparently cancelled after school activities. 

Yum!

Do they still go to school anymore?

2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

The 12Z NAM is really lingering the snow through Friday afternoon for central and most of W. New York.

I saw same on latest GFS and Euro runs. Looks promising. Some have had this event over by 12Z tomorrow for CNY...

3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

 Relative to lead times, all the models did fairly well.. They all wavered a bit but at times showed the general idea. Over the last day and a 1/2 the euro seemed pretty steady.   But then again, verification hasn't happened yet, lol!

LOL. Yeah we are nowhere near being able to validate any model for.this event. The biggest loser *could* be the GFS which IIRC was pretty far SE with its heavier snow totals for many runs.  Not sure what the latest is, it may have ended up correcting a but. But...we shall see.

RN- is now SN here.  Torch over.  Lost 1/3rd of snow depth, down to 5-6".

29 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

Spitting flakes in Oswego, still at 33

We have a very light RN/PL mix going on. Hard to tell what it is as it's light. Temp still 34F.  0.15" rain thusfar.

4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Yeah Brian...first part of the storm for CNY through 2pm will be a nothing burger...

 I've been watching the trends over the last couple days with regard to Omega and DGZ,  and it has trended better for this evening.

Liking my spot in Caz...13" is my call for here.

Agree. The latest model runs do look more promising for later tomorrow and overnight. I think that's where we see the bulk of the snow fall. Up till then...maybe 1-3". Your area looks good for a foot or so. 

17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just wiped board 1.2” so far. Very granular snow, not conducive to adding up fast. Definitely using 1:10 for this one. 

Interesting, makes sense. I don't think we see better snow growth (at least here) till afternoon and evening.

16 minutes ago, sferic said:

Does the N Onondaga crew think flakes make it in before dawn?

Probably sometime near 7 am. Precip could be intermittent by then, or light, which i think lasts that way most of morning.

6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Man, you HATE this storm. What it do to you?

Nah, just pointing out the rain so far. I think we get 6-10" here locally.

14 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

Pee break. F yes!!!!

Thusfar 0.09" rain thru 0030. So we've missed an inch or so of snow potential.

17 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Jim Teske is forecasting 2-4 by 6 PM tomorrow then another 4-8 overnight to get to the 6-12 he’s forecasting. 

I could see that. Looking closer at 0Z models I'm thinking  7-10" for us in no. Onondaga. I think a few inches more (8-12") for SYZ and south to Cortland.  BGM...airport may be on edge of best snow (5"?) City itself probably 2-3".  Albany in a similar spot as BGM...

23 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Perusing through the Great Lakes forum, it appears wave one underperformed in many places. Report of 5:1 ratios today...yikes. Many posts saying that the model numbers were way too high. Wave 2 is coming with more cold air available though, so we shall see. But, this would be a good "head's up" again to stick closer to the 10:1 ratios and NOT Kuchera.

The biggest issue will be exactly where the heavier qpf Axis sets up. Looking at a slew of 0Z models, I'd say consensus is from say Dunkirk through Elmira to between Syr/Cortland and on NE to Glens Falls.

00Z FV3 for KSYZ 6pm tomorrow, this about when real snow starts. Won't be much till then, here.  Maybe about 3" by this time.

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

What's it matter your getting 3 inches anyway

...

Here is a good sign, 00Z NAM skew-T for KSYZ AT HR 27 Thursday 10pm. Good UVV (-12.7 ub/sec) and DGZ alignment.  This would be SN+

4 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Arw. Meso model. Sorry just screen shot it. Don't worry I will divide your snow by 5 to get what you will recieve

Thats not the point. It would be helpful to see what model, what run, is it 10:1 or Kurchera, if ur gonna post them...

6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

 

WTF are u posting here? Try doing some basic editing?

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Wow, you're being pretty miserly about this. Skeptical of our ability to get good snowfalls anymore?

I don't think there's much Omega and alignment with DGZ is spotty at best. All of the initial wave qpf will be wasted on rain. There's no way I buy the 12" numbers some models have here.

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

Depends if that front continues its quick jaunt that it all of a sudden started and when it starts to slow down. As long as we continue to get the warm farts off the hills to the south, we will be rain. My guess is it will begin flipping between 6 and 9 am.

Agree, we will flip about 7-8 a.m. after most precip from first wave has moved thru.  After that SN- and cloudy till evening.

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

When you look at the Wunderground temps, it's literally in the 30s in every direction from the Sizzle and we are in this pocket of lower 40s right now. South winds here drive me bananas.

Prepare for extended rains and a snow minima. 6-7" at KSYZ is my call. We may eke out an extra inch NW.

01Z RAP for CNY thru 22Z tomorrow. Basically as much rain as snow, 0.4" liquid. Look at that min over Freak's place. LOL.

The Kuchie maps aren't going to verify...divide by 1.5.

USA v Honduras World Cup qualifier match going on...in Minneapolis. It's 4 degrees, with wind. LOL.  2:0 US early 2H.  We play where the foreign fans won't be able to flood the stadium. 

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The 100k for throwing games sounds insane to me too even though I know tanking is real. The players will never tank on purpose, but management can setup the team to fail in any given season and coaching goes hand in hand with management.

I can believe there are at least a few "rogue" NFL Owners out there who would just as soon tank but being stupid enough to start an actual conspiracy by involving/paying the coaching staff seems unlikely but not implausible.  Some people think they can get away with anything, being either mega wealthy, powerful or just psychotic. Problem is that you'd have to be really certain the people you involve are more than solid, or something like "this" happens. 

Race issues aside for a moment, Flores is either just lashing out or he's sort of José Canseco who came out with wild allegations about steroid use in MLB.  The sports media initially panned Canseco (bc he wasn't exactly a pillar of the community), until they couldn't anymore as more evidence leaked out regarding widespread steroid use.

The BB text messages don't tell me anything other than BB was probably having a senior moment texting the wrong person. And Owners sacking coaches over not getting along, isn't a new (or obviously racial) thing.

I hope flor Flores sake he can prove it, or he'll have set back his purported racism in hiring concern immeasurably. (Which I believe is real, but not overt racist behavior, in general).

10 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Drove to Chipotle in Clay for take out about 45 minutes ago and the first raindrops were hitting my windshield. 

18Z NAM has us with about 1" of snow thru 4pm tomorrow, so expecting about 6-9 hrs of rain then "dryslotting" between waves here. About 4-6" afterwards over about 12-18 hrs.  Basically, Advisory level event.