Syrmax

5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Just added another inch in the last hour, continues to pound here 

Ok, so just did some measurements. Everything was clean at 0800 this am. Wasn't much going on between 0800 and change to SN- shortly thereafter.

0.45" melted

5.0" snowfall.

Ratio:  11.1:1

Ratio Better than i thought.  Just not getting the qpf, yet? 

3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That’s wild you’re getting g that rice snow. It’s legit dendrites up here. Not as big as lake effect but nice fatties falling 

I think you have a bit of elevation there, as does Lake Effect King and 96Blizz.  Here in the swamps, without lake enhancement, always take the under. 

Intensity of rice snow should start tapering down here in the next hour or so looking at radar. Models showed a 6-8" minima just N of Syracuse and into SW Oswego cty and looks like its playing out.  Areas south of the lake plain here look to be the jackpot.

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

6 to 1 ratios. Lol

I'm gonna do a measurement at 10pm and calculate a ratio. This has to be 8:1 I'd guess here.

Rice snow continues here. Seems to be our fate.  Rate is moderate, so at least we'll add 6-7" of gruel to our 5-6" base that survived the mini torch.  Should last us thru Feb given next 2 weeks look cold/dry-ish.

Edit: my theory is you need a bit elevation to get decent dendrite production here, or some kind of super Omega to counteract some slight downsloping effects we see often in synoptic storms.  

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Travel Advisory in Lockport

NWS brought back the ol' Travellers Advisory just for WNY? How quaint.  Downgrade from WSW I assume?

14 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Flake size should improve for all areas (that are snowing).

I just checked some soundings going forward from the NAM and it looks like the DGZ grows a bit thickness wise and Omega increases within.  5.5" in Caz with moderate SN.

Thanks. I have burned out looking at models, soundings, Kuchies, etc.  I was a bit optimistic last night looking at some soundings...hopefully they end up right.

19 minutes ago, sferic said:

Moderate  snow in Cicero, hoping for heavy soon

Heavier rice snow but moderate here too.

21 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

My RING in Irondequoit looks like decent rates and decent flake size. Any reports from Rochester?

Huge waves...Mountainous Seas...

4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

With this going all night you should do 8” or so 

That was about my forecast here...no way we reach a foot.

4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That’s what we call man snow. Loaded with moisture harder to melt 

Just took a measurement. Caveat, not quite my official spot so it could be a touch low but not by a lot. Maybe have to breakout the slanted RGEM  ruler b4 thIs is done.

1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

but the kuchera maps

Kuchera verifies with a slanted-enough ruler.

Not gonna lie, horrible flake size here, despite decent radar returns, this is what i feared. Been SN- for 7 hrs, maybe 2 inches.

1 minute ago, 96blizz said:

GFS for continued posterity!! 

No way.

10 minutes ago, sferic said:

Hopefully , fun for the  next 24 hours for Onondaga; currently a measly 1 inch or so OTG in Cicero

How are my nearby towns doing?

 

8 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

3.5" in Caz....snow increasing last 5 min.

 

3rd rum and diet down....#4 in the making. 

Not quite 2" by eyeball...

Rum and diet...hmmm. I may crack open a Cosmo to celebrate the massive storm thusfar.

Just now, wolfie09 said:

P&C looks solid for Kroc..

8-14 through tonight..

2"-6" for tomorrow..

10"-20" total..

Forecast blown I just learned though? 

18 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

These tables are in a pretty sheltered place. I’m not trying to suppress numbers, we just haven’t gotten much yet. 

Snow here is steady but light. Going to need to pick up the pace...

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Snowfall rates increasing, haven't measured since 8 am as I've been at work, going to wipe board when I get home but eyeballing 5-6". 

I'd say about 1.5" here so far.  Dendrite size is "ok-ish" but intensity is light to maybe bordlne moderate. 

1 hour ago, 96blizz said:

So do you think this will underperform?  It's been challenging to decipher where you stand...

I don't think the high end will verify IMBY but say, 7-8"?  Its not a bad storm i guess, given the low standards of this winter.

12 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

For fun...  Here's a Kuchera.  Remember, the snowiest maps can make people happy in the moment.  Weenies rejoice.

I stay away from kuchera as it just sets you up for disappointment, usually.  There are times though that it picks up on lower ratio situations. We saw that last winter with one storm I sort of recall. 

Just now, tim123 said:

Say after 6 pm use kuchera all the way.

HRRR Kuchie has 14.5 ROC and 13.0 SYZ at 18 hrs, end of range...

HRRR Bullish...this is out at end of its run, 18 hrs, with more to follow.

This seems rambunctious for snowfall but I like the totals out at the edge near Rochester, LOL!

10 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

Syracuse weenies unite!

This guy clearly doesn't know about the Tughill curse. He will soon learn... 

47 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

Exactly this. I come from NJ and feel the same. We just shrug our shoulders and maybe grab some extra junk food for fun. 

That and there a LOT less people. Thank God. 

I fill the bathtub with whiskey if it really looks like roads will be bad. #prepper