Syrmax

Just now, tim123 said:

Your a idiot.

-2 sp. -1 grammar.  #fail

50 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If I ran my snowblower right now the neighbors would kill me. 

Just finished half the driveway. I only have one neighbor really and she is probably doing an 8 ball right now so no worries.

Measured 6.5". That's 1.5" in past 3 hours, steady but not impressive. We should get to 8 but double digits will be iffy here.

20 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Sure does. Reports of 9 to 12 inches in monroe county from social media.

There were reports of English flags in the Turkish trenches at Galipolli. Didn't mean it was true.

34 minutes ago, tim123 said:

About 10 inches here in walworth. 

RGEM measurement? 

I may do after night Jeb shovel (actually snowblow) half my driveway. My idiot niece will be home in a while from her job and it annoys me to have to snowblow over tire tracks. 

4 minutes ago, sferic said:

Just took this off my Long Island Backyard  Cam : remaining snow from the foot I went for last week

Really?  That's worse than I thought. It's why I so hated most winters down there. As much as we bitch up here, cuz thats what we do, we do maintain snow depth and a winter feel a lot better.

1 minute ago, Blue Moon said:

Oswego storm total just under 7 inches so far. Could still have several more inches ahead!

Curious is conditions will become more favorable for dendritic growth as this event progresses. Right now we have a nose that's warmer than the desirable -10 to -20 C window. We're almost at -10 C at the sfc right now but you don't hit that temperature again until you go up to the 600mb level. Once we get near that mark for the 850-600 mb level we'll hopefully get some bigger flakes that will give us a boost!

HRRR looks favorable for snow continuing almost all day tomorrow in Oswego. It may be lighter but we could have bigger flakes.

Another thing- our RH at the SFC is below 90%. Cold, dry air is really trying to fight its way forward.

Could you post a close up of a random model Kuchie for Rochester area? Asking for a friend...

6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, I was trying to find how much the snowpack melted from perusing the New England and New York City subforums.

48 degree dewpoints down there. Yikes.

I just looked thru CoCoRAHS reports this a.m., generally a few inches more than us where the storm hit in SNE but less than Erie Cty out near Buffalo. And I went from 8" to 5.5" depth in past couple of days.  A lot of them will be clean sheet by tomorrow.

Imagine being down on LI and SNE seeing your weekend "Bomb Storm" flushed down the turlet right now. 52 in NYC...we don't have it THAT bad...

Here's the 03Z RAP thru 21Z Friday (4pm). Another 6" here from 10pm tonight. There's also another couple of inches after this from about ROC to SYR which looks like lake enhanced or LES after that into Sat a.m. 

6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Seems like all the 0Z runs are bringing another solid 8 to 10 inches to Onondaga county and CNY area.

That's starting 7pm tho (0Z). So that includes some of which has already fallen but even taking off 2-3"...still solid.

7 minutes ago, sferic said:

Looks nice, but realistically  when does the continuous moderate snow end?

That's a good question. Shifting to HRRR short range model...I'd say late morning? The below sounding is pretty good looking at 11 am for KSYZ ...the snowfall total is thru 21Z (4pm)

00Z GooFuS still insisting on decent UVV alignment with Snow Growth Zone aloft at 1 am...

00Z GFS FWIW still pumping out decent accumulation here, from ROC to SYZ and on NE. Now this started as of 7pm this eve but there it is thru Friday eve. Do the math.

20 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

My bedroom has a spotlight right over the window. I can lie here and just watch it snow. So peaceful. 4” and mod-hvy here in Stowe

Is Freak there?

8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

seriously, nothing beats a good bourbon on a cold snowy night 

Fact. 

16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Sounds like a good competitor for that Yerdon lady in N. Redfield who takes 5,000 pictures of herself cheerleader jumping off snow piles.

I can do that too! 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Highest total so far

...Cattaraugus County...
Perrysburg                   12.7 in   0900 PM 02/03   Public

Drifts or real?

5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, their discussion was very interesting. That cold dense air is sliding in underneath and refreezing the precip.into sleet in the valleys, while it rains and freezes up on the hilltops, closer to the warm layer above. Pure Science weenieism!

She blinded me with SCIENCE! (Thomas Dolby 1980s for you young 'Tards )

3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Stepped outside and we are mixing with freezing rain again. Ugh. The sleet on the ground is being glacierized as we speak.

What location are you at down there? 

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

I was hoping that for once those models would be wrong and we could get REAL snow in a synoptic system here. You've lived here longer, so you know the climo better. As I've asked so many times, how on earth do we actually get to the average of 130 inches?? lol... Seems like so much always goes wrong. But like I mentioned a couple of times, these SWFEs are not ideal for Syracuse with the influences of topography to our south and northeast. We live and die by way of the coastals of yesteryear.

Still lots left in this system though...and perhaps the lake can get more involved than current thoughts. That enhancement has saved us a couple times since I've lived here. We get those hours of pure fluff.

We had a normal Nov for snowfall (at KSYZ), about 9". Jan was a little light but 80-90% of Norm.  BUT, WE LOST DECEMBER.  If Feb and March are avg, we'll end up around 100" or so. Then there is the April and May "bone-us" snows.

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Whats the vis at tri cities, that should tell you whether it's legit or not. I highly doubt snow if the bgm is zr. 

Here's last hours statewide roundup...

6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

yea, gotta be lack of omega which lays that out well with lack of qpf. Didn't most models have like 1.2-1.4 for cuse area qpf wise lol?

Yes, that's what most models were Spitting out for KSYZ for qpf.  One caveat, we are a bit N of KSYZ and the soundings I was looking at were for the airport. If heaviest qpf is from SYZ to say Cortland, just to my south,  wouldn't shock me to see the city end up a bit better than here.  OTOH, we're halfway to double digits and a long way to go yet...so we may end up ok given the ratios I just measured...

22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Syrmax stands solid on snowfall statements. Sleet-sized snowflakes falling in the synoptic snowstorm suckhole Sizzlecuse.

This was foreseen by some of the model soundings i was looking at the past day or so. But i was seeing some decent periods tonight. So maybe we get some better production at some point. This is long duration so maybe 10-12" not out of the question for us.

3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

thats not bad. Yea sounds like issue is qpf. Whats your temp down there? Its 15 here 

I'm at 19F...