GoAPPS

It's only through 1 p.m. tomorrow. Here's through 1 p.m. Sunday. Also adds a good thumping of NWFS for the mountains.

Latest GSP Forecast Discussion has some interesting tidbits. By Saturday, guidance digs the potent upper low in the vicinity of the Upstate as it evolves into a negative tilt and instigates subsequent surface cyclogenesis along a coastal baroclinic zone. The upper low will be anomalously deep with H5 heights in the bottom 1st percentile to near all time record low for the southeast. This will be an unusually cold snow event for the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia with very cold temperatures in place as the snow occurs. Some members of guidance depict temperatures in the low 20s to teens during peak snowfall rates on Saturday and even the warmer solutions keep temperatures at 30 degrees or lower. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate incredibly cold profiles with a deep dendritic growth zone and plenty of forcing in part from strong DPVA with the upper low. This will result in rare SLRs ranging from 15:1 to 20:1. Surprisingly, guidance is in very good agreement with SLRs with only small differences between the 10th and 90th percentiles. Thus, it won`t take much liquid QPF to realize several inches of snow. The very cold temperatures will also increase impacts to travel with snow sticking very efficiently to roads.

That's a good bet, but I'd wait until Friday morning before making a final decision.

Timing is everything with this weekend's system. The Euro phases the upper low later and farther east, leaving the mountains with cold air aloft but limited divergence and moisture. The GFS phases earlier, allowing stronger upper-level divergence to overlap deeper moisture and throw precip back into the Appalachians.

Up to 33 degrees in West Asheville with only a light glaze.

I’m guessing those lower totals in the southwest mountains are from the Euro amping the system so much that it changes over to just plain rain? Not complaining, if we’re not gonna get any snow, I’d rather it just be rain.

Any thoughts on an undermodeled CAD leading to the surface low tracking further south than modeled?

That wind could bump us from a 2 to a 4 or even worse.

We better pray that doesn't verify.

I really hope this is snow and not ice, not just because ice sucks, but also because Asheville and the surrounding area could really use a break from infrastructure-wreaking storms.

I'm really hoping these suppressed solutions don't pan out, though it would be hilarious if Wilmington got more snow than Asheville for the second year in a row. Last year it was 2.6" for Wilmington and 1.9" for Asheville.

Next Tuesday is looking tantalizingly close.

View of Melissa’s eye at peak intensity. Credit: European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite.

Look at the size of the stadium effect on shortwave IR.

I hope this isn't a dumb question, but is there a website similar to Tropical Tidbits or Pivotal Weather where I can see graphical representations of Google AI model products?

Just to illustrate the difficulty of this forecast, here are the 500mb height anomalies from the 0z Euro, Euro AI, and GFS. They clearly show that 94L's eventual track is hugely dependent on the speed and placement of both 94L and Humberto when they have their Fujiwhara interaction. Three scenarios are showing up. In the GFS solution, Humberto throws 94L into the South Carolina coast, and it quickly moves inland. Scenario 2, shown by the Euro, has Humberto partially capturing 94L, causing it to stall right on the S.C. coast but eventually releasing it. Again, 94L strikes the S.C. coast, but a bit further south and weaker. The Euro AI has a weaker and faster Humberto, which interacts earlier with 94L and causes that same stalling further out to sea. When 94L eventually gets free, it heads out to sea instead of west.

Current runs of the GFS and Euro show the western tropical system hitting South Carolina.

(Oct. 10) A rare solar storm brought the aurora very far south. I took this photo from the desolation of Foundy Street in the River Arts District.

(Sept. 28, the day after the storm) A raccoon perches atop a metal post in the floodwaters. I walked away after taking this photo, as the raccoon was stressed enough. I hope it survived.

(Sept. 28, the day after the storm) My brother found a chair that had washed down the river the previous day and sat in it for a moment looking out over the River Arts District in Asheville.

I'm very late to the party, but I wanted to share a few photos. It's been just over 10 months since Helene tore through Asheville, and though recovery is well underway, the scars run deep. My whole collection of photos from the aftermath: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/14RhE1sEh5PdlgFoohT75uLs3JVwydaGs?usp=sharing (Sept. 28, the day after the storm) This building in the River Arts District has a white brick to mark the high water point of the 1916 Great Flood. The walking sign is right beside it, and it's mud line shows the water reached at least a foot higher

SPC Convective Outlook for our region Wednesday, June 25: ...Southeast... Strong instability will develop during the afternoon over much of the region, with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE common. Of note will be midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.0 C/km, suggesting robust convection is likely. Storms are expected to form around 21Z over the high terrain, and within a surface trough during peak heating over the central Carolinas. Slow moving at first, storms will form into clusters, with erratic motions possible. However, a general southerly trends is expected. The high PWAT content, steep lapse rates, and favorable time of day all suggest areas of damaging microbursts will develop. As such, the area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk. Scattered storms are expected farther south into GA, AL, and the FL Panhandle as well, within a southwest extension of the surface trough, and, possibly with the sea breeze. Forecast soundings in this region similarly show very strong instability, with west/southwest moving storm clusters likely producing damaging wind gusts.

I've been heading out into the woods over the past couple of weeks to photograph the blue ghost and synchronous fireflies!

Six months ago... This raccoon was one of three who were trapped on an island in the middle of the Helene floodwaters in the River Arts District of Asheville. One by one they worked up the courage to swim for the shore. This one stopped halfway across and rested on a metal pole that was sticking out of the water. This heartbreaking moment reminds me that it wasn't just people who lost everything. I left shortly after taking this picture, because I was worried my presence would stress the raccoon more than it already was. I hope it survived.

Look out, Western Upstate and Southwest NC.