Sey-Mour Snow
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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow
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Not even a storm on GFS for next week lol .. the trend of the year one model is in and the other isn't , then when the other model jumps on board, the model that had it all along jumps off ship and ends up being exactly right that run.. -
Agree for the Monday threat it’s now 3 runs in a row check out this control run lol @RUNNAWAYICEBERG special
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Correct it showed a massive hit for 1 run. But still solid for 3-4 runs. Let’s see just give us one storm and end this winter.
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As you can see here Peak PNA has been waffling on eps and generally trending later. As of last Thursday Friday PNA ridge was supposed to peak this coming weekend. . So hopefully the ridge doesn’t get that can kicked again.
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EPS showed the same thing for Saturday 2 days ago! All I’m saying is that we need multiple runs from multiple models to be in before I believe it.
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We aren’t done yet though. This is from Scott when we were all in on this Saturday threat 2-3 days ago check out the original west coast ridge forecasted for this Saturday, trends actually went the opposite direction.
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What I’m saying is that we said this same exact thing for this Saturday coming up and now look at it. It was just as good a signal as Monday and Tuesday now is. A few of the great signals has had some sort of transient PNA ridge that turned out to be a fluke.
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Ya I get it. We literally just said the same thing about Saturdays signal now look at it. Storm very likely yes? Yes precip type will be a concern. Also track does it end up congrats Delmarva , congrats SNE or NNE? Also the tendency has been to weaken the signal on approach.
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ZERO continuity with ensembles or op runs.. We will know more by Monday (sarcasm).. There's no reason to take any model seriously until all models have the same idea for at least 2 runs in a row..
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I wouldn’t feel good anywhere with zero model continuity.
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No sorry that was the 50th percentile and the mean each for 12z. The 50th percentile at 12z is much less than the mean, meaning that there are some snowy outliers skewing the mean.
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Here’s 00z
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Mean is way down from 00z.. gfs last to the party again.
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I’ll pass on the shaking hands but sure let’s move it east a bit ..
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I've been noticing that, annoyingly weird seems like most of the lows the models are spinning up are like that .
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Maybe the euro is broken and they should just re run it at 12z and see what solution it spits out this time?
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Fixed it lol
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Last pile just melted from last week.
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pouring salt in the SNE weenie wounds lol
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And the steady EPS starts it Saturday morning so we are on day 5.5 from tonights runs.. Plenty of time for shifts, but also very reasonable to track storms 5-6 days out.. Tip and Brooklyn have been all over this one
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Eps with a solid push east need another one. Still day 7-8 though.
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Ya I know nice rain storm on the control next weekend for us.
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Been a horrible bust down here for HRRR, can’t be trusted with its epic fails the last two storms, it’s steady with weenie solutions for several runs then trends towards globals last few runs before go time.
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Snow sleet here since 7:30pm … 75% sleet all roads covered 34.5.
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Damn old school maps haven’t seen those in awhile. congrats Dakotas on 18z gfs. Going to be a lot of waffling until Monday probably..
