Roger Smith

Table of entries for 2020 N Atl hurricane seasonal forecast

Two expert predictions are added to the field, the NHC numbers are middle of their range and CSU gave specific values as shown. Other institutional predictions can be seen at this link:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Your forecasts are shown in order of number of named storms, then broken down by hurricanes and major hurricanes.

FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj 

Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6

WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5

Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7

NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4

Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5

NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5

Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5

Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5

BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5

NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4

___ Consensus (means) ________ 18.5_10.3_4.9

Rhino16 _________________________ 18 _14 _ 5

Rtd208 __________________________ 18 _12 _ 7

Newman _________________________18 _10 _ 4

Yoda _____________________________18 _ 8 _ 4

JakkelWx ________________________ 17 _10 _ 6

Alfoman _________________________ 17 _ 9 _ 5

Jaxjagman ______________________ 16 _ 9 _ 5

NHC (mid-range) _________________16 _ 8 _ 4.5

CSU _____________________________ 16 _ 8 _ 4

Olafminesaw ____________________ 15 _ 8 _ 4

Crownweather ___________________ 15 _ 8 _ 3

______________________________________________________________

19 forecasts (and the two expert predictions) ... means as shown for consensus in table.

The contest means do not include the two expert predictions although they would not change much with them included. 

Table of entries -- 2020 seasonal maxima in the Mid-Atlantic region

Forecasts appear by order of BWI predictions, then sorted by DCA, IAD and RIC where tied to that point.

Consensus is derived from medians although means would be similar. With 20 forecasts the median is the average of 10th and 11th ranked.

The actual maximum to date will move up through this table (we can presume) to its eventual resting place.

Later in the contest, a table of departures will be posted to show the evolving results of the contest. 

FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC

George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112

NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104

Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102

tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103

H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102

yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104

wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103

WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100

Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100

WinstonSalemArlington  __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102

___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102

WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103

Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105

nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100

C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103

MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99

Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101

Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101

Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99

TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98

JakkelWx ______________ 96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100

___ Actual to date ______ 96 __ 93 __ 95 __ 94

_______________________________________________________

The means of the 20 forecasts are

(contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1

Okay, just a notice that this contest will close for entries at the end of the day Monday, the deadline is set at 06z 16th which is 0200h EDT (after midnight Monday, very early Tuesday) .... I will take entries as shown then so you can edit today or Monday without the need to notify. The table of entries will be based on what I see on Tuesday morning (will have the table of entries up within a few hours of the deadline). Don't forget we are at 3/0/0 so it's that plus whatever you think will happen to end of the year for a prediction of the overall seasonal count. 

Good luck !!

Monday 15th is the last day for entries or for editing your existing entries. No need to notify on edits, I will construct a table of entries from what I see on Tuesday. You can enter up to the end of the day (06z Tuesday is the cutoff). I will post a closed for entries note and start on the table of entries at that time. Good luck !!

Tracking how anomalies are developing, and projections ...

__________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

_9th ______ (8d) __________ +3.3 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +8.7 _+2.3 _+2.2 ___ +8.8 _+3.9 _--0.9

16th ______(15d) _________ +2.5 _+1.8 _+0.4 ___ +4.4 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___ +5.7 _+2.3 _--1.1

23rd ______(22d) _________ +1.2 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +5.2 _--0.5 _+0.1 ___ +3.9 _+1.4 _+0.2

_9th ______(p15d) ________+3.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +6.0 _+3.5 _+3.0 ___ +8.0 _+2.5 _--0.7

_16th ____ (p22d) ________ +1.5 _+1.0 _--0.5 ___ +2.5 __0.0 _+0.5 ___ +4.0 _+2.5_ --0.5

_9th ______(p25d) ________+4.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ +6.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ +7.0 _+2.0 _--0.5

_16th ____ (p30d) ________ +0.5 __0.0 _--1.0 ___ +1.5 _--0.5 __0.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _--0.5

_23rd ____ (p30d) ________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ +3.5 _--0.5 __0.0 ___ +3.5 _+2.0 __0.0

final anomalies __________ +2.3 _+1.8 _+1.5 ___ +5.0 _--0.5 __0.0 ___ +3.6_ +1.2 _+0.9

______________________________________

(9th) _ A fairly warm start to the month except in the Pac NW which has been chilly and wet.

These trends not expected to change much next week, with a buildup of stronger warmth looking set for later in June. 

The cool regime in the Pac NW appears likely to trend towards subdued warmth later in the month. 

(16th) _ The forecasts began to unravel somewhat this past week due to the influence of coastal low pressure and a 

general trend towards cloudiness in eastern and central regions. This is now expected to be a persistent trend and the

shrinking positive anomalies may have trouble surviving in any form to end of the month in most cases. The southwest

should remain quite warm relative to normal, and the Pac NW will probably remain cooler than normal. 

(23rd) _ Past week trended a bit warmer than predicted but now looking somewhat cooler again to end of month, with the

western heat continuing but fading in the Pac NW after a few hot days here. 

(1st July) _ Anomalies have been posted and contest scored overnight. 

Table of forecasts for June 2020

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___

wxallannj ___________________+2.1 _+2.3 _+2.2 __ +1.1 _+1.8 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.3 _+0.9

RJay _______ (-2%) __________+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +2.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +2.0 _+2.0 _+0.5

Jakkelwx ___________________+1.5 _+1.2 _+0.5 __ +2.4 _+1.5 _+1.1 __ +2.3 _+2.0 _+0.3

Tom _______________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.1 __ +0.9 _+1.0 _+1.5 __ +1.5 _+1.8 _+1.1

Scotty Lightning ____________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5

BKViking ___________________+1.4 _+1.0 _+1.5 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.3 __ +1.1 _+1.6 _+1.3

___ Consensus _____________ +1.4 _+1.0 _+1.1 __ +1.2 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.6 _+0.4

hudsonvalley21 ____________ +1.3 _+1.1 _+1.4 __ +0.6 _+1.7 _+1.5 __ +1.8 _+2.1 _+1.9

Roger Smith ________________+1.3 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ +0.7 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +2.5 _+2.5 __0.0

wxdude64 __ (-1%) _________ +1.3 _+0.4 _+0.1 __ +1.3 _+1.8 _+0.9 __ --0.3 _+0.8 _--0.6 

RodneyS ___________________ +1.1 _+0.7 _+1.3 __ +1.9 _+0.6 _+1.0 __ +3.9 _+2.2 _--0.5

DonSutherland.1 ___________ +0.5 _+0.3 _+0.8 __ +0.8 _+0.2 _--0.3 __ +1.5 _+1.2 _--0.5

___ Normal __________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0

Brian5671 __ (-2%) _________ --0.5 __ 0.0 __0.0 __ +1.0 _+2.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+0.5 __0.0

__________________________________________________________________________

forecasts color coded for warmest and coldest. Consensus is median of 12 forecasts (mean of 6th, 7th ranked).

Normal is also colder than forecasts for ORD, ATL and PHX, tied coldest for NYC, BOS. 

(note edit on June 23 was to correct out of order predictions for DEN, PHX ... some posts had them out of order

and I just noticed this doing the seasonal max contest)

Four seasons contest update, Spring totals and points with winter points added

_ note points structure amended with more forecasters now regularly entering, I have given the minimum of one point to all for winter 2019-20.

_ points based on 10 for first, then 7 for second, on down to 1 point for 8th to end of the scoring, three contests must be entered to qualify.

FORECASTER ___________ Winter points ____ Spring totals ____ Spring points _____ TOTAL POINTS

RodneyS _________________________ 10 ____________ 1726 _____________ 6 ____________ 16

DonSutherland 1 ___________________5 ____________ 1899 ____________ 10 ____________ 15

hudsonvalley21 ____________________4 ____________ 1786 _____________ 7 ____________ 11

wxallannj _________________________ 7 _____________1557 _____________ 3 ____________ 10

______ Consensus _________________ 5 ____________ 1653 _____________ 5 ____________ 10

BKViking __________________________ 6 ____________ 1545 _____________ 2 _____________ 8

Tom _______________________________3 ____________ 1598 _____________ 4 _____________ 7

RJay _______________________________1 ____________ 1643 _____________ 5 _____________ 6

Scotty Lightning ___________________ 2 ____________ 1458 _____________ 1 _____________ 3

wxdude64 _________________________ 1 ____________ 1469 _____________ 1 _____________ 2

Roger Smith _______________________ 1 ____________ 1473 _____________ 1 _____________ 2

Brian5671 _________________________ 1 ____________ 1532 _____________ 1 _____________ 2

_________ Normal __________________ 1 ____________ 1404 ______________1 _____________ 2

_________________________________________________________

Let's say seasonal max by June 15th, if you wish to enter just add them in. 

We have relaxed the late penalties this year, so those won't cost you much at all guys. ... Will replace this with a table of entries later on, I think all the regular entrants have checked in. 

Thanks for entries so far, will leave this open for more entries until June 15th and you can edit any entries you've made without notice, I won't be recording any predictions until I declare the contest closed. Since 95% of years have a max after that date and often a month or two after it, I can't see that people will gain much advantage but we'll see. 

+1.3 __ +1.0 __ +0.5 __ +0.7 __ +1.0 __ +1.0 __ +2.5 __ +2.5 __ 0.0

102 __ 100 __ 101 ____ 99 ___ 103 ___ 107 ___ 107 __ 120 __ 96

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-May) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > >

Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

RodneyS ___________________370_ 320_344 __1034 __363_289_296 __948 __1982 __372_340_284_ 996 ____2978

Don Sutherland.1 ___________296 _296_308 __ 900 __351_270_304 __ 925 __1825 __ 272_318_296__886 ____2711

hudsonvalley21 ____________245 _246 _307 __ 798 __282 _266_297 __ 845 __1643 __301_401_279__981 ____2624

RJay ______________________ 314 _309_267 __ 890 __247 _252 _295 __ 794 __1684 __298_333_264__895 ____2579

wxallannj __________________268 _276 _299 __ 843 __255 _257 _318 __ 830 __1673 __282_350_266__898 ____2571

___ Consensus _____________248 _234 _299 __ 781__261 _245_320 __ 826 __1607 __286_380_276__942 _____2549

Brian5671 _________________ 313 _301 _285 __ 899 __184 _284_301 __ 769 __1668 __187_338_312__837 ____2505

Tom _______________________ 248 _236 _264 __ 748__229 _284 _283__ 796 __1544 __ 263_380_261__904 ____2448

BKViking ___________________210 _208 _255 __ 673__290 _184 _302__ 776 __1449 __299_392_307_  998 ____2447

Scotty Lightning ____________136 _118 _188 __ 442 __234 _235_350__ 819 __1261 __226 _374_326__926 ____2187

wxdude64 __________________168 _158 _191 __ 517__200 _215 _325__ 740 __1257 __ 308 _336_211__855 ____2112

___ Normal _________________130 _108 _164 __ 402 __224 _214 _246__ 684 __1086 __218_348_ 306__872 ____1958

Roger Smith ________________194__185 _252 __ 631 __221 _311_244__ 776 __1407 __208 _178_134__520 ____1927

JakkelWx _ (3/5) ____________ 84 __ 75 _158 __ 317 __155 _ 95 _212 __ 462 __ 779 ___162 _220 _ 80__462 ____1241

yoda _ (2/5) _________________64 __ 43 __ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 __ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686

rclab _ (1/5) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 __ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250

dwave _ (1/5) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 __ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292

Maxim _ (1/5) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 __ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182

Two in May already -- has to at least tie a record? ... Seasonal forecast thread is open, simplified format this year, no big amount of work required, just your seasonal numbers. 

Hello, hoping all of you are well or close approximations, I am doing fine but got way behind in my work on several fronts, so this is a bit late being posted. 

As usual we will be predicting anomalies for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA in F deg relative to 1981-2010, and you can add your

ideas about 2020 seasonal maxima for those locations for a mini-contest. 

I will post something in a couple of days, haven't had time to check out any guidance all week. It is turning hot here finally (after weeks of drizzly n/n dross).

Take care and stay well. 

(hurricane forecast contest over in the tropical dead zone too) 

Final scoring for May 2020

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTALS

__ Anomalies _ (31d) ___--2.2 _--2.1 _--1.1 ___________ +0.8 _--1.2 _+1.1 ____ ___ _____ +2.5_ +4.1 _+3.3

RodneyS ________________ 90 _ 92 _ 98 __ 280 __ 36 _ 82 _ 90 _ 208 _ 488 __ 90 _ 86 _ 62 __ 238 _____ 726

Brian5671 _______________76 _ 88 _ 82 __ 246 __ 84 _ 56 _ 82 _ 222 _ 468 __ 90 _ 58 _ 74 __ 222 _____ 690

DonSutherland1 _________ 64 _ 78 _ 98 __ 240 __ 64 _ 66 _ 96 _ 226 _ 466 __ 72 _ 74 _ 54 __ 200 _____ 666

hudsonvalley21 _________ 70 _ 74 _ 96 __ 240 __ 60 _ 58 _ 94 _ 212 _ 452 __ 84 _ 68 _ 60 __ 212 _____ 664

wxdude64 _______________78 _ 84 _ 90 __ 252 __ 46 _ 60 _ 98 _ 204 _ 456 __ 96 _ 60 _ 42 __ 198 _____ 654

Tom ____________________ 88 _ 96 _ 84 __ 268 __ 40 _ 94 _ 88 _ 222 _ 490__ 60 _ 42 _ 52 __ 154 _____ 644

___ Consensus ___________64 _ 70 _ 94 __ 228 __ 62 _ 58 _ 98 _ 218 _ 446 __ 78 _ 58 _ 54 __ 190 _____ 636

wxallannj ________________64 _ 68 _ 90 __ 222 __ 52 _ 60 _ 92 _ 204 _ 426 __ 74 _ 58 _ 64 __ 196 _____ 622

BKViking ________________ 46 _ 48 _ 74 __ 168 __ 94 _ 32 _100_ 226 _ 394__100 _58 _ 70 __ 228 _____ 622

RJay ____________________ 56 _ 58 _ 78 __ 192 __ 64 _ 56 _ 78 _ 198 _ 390 __ 80_ 48 _ 54 __ 182 _____ 572

JakkelWx ________________44 _ 54 _ 88 __ 186 __ 98 _ 36 _ 90 _ 224 _ 410 __ 72 _ 46 _ 24 __ 142 _____ 552

Scotty Lightning _________ 36 _ 48 _ 78 __ 162 __ 84 _ 56 _ 92 _ 232 _ 394 __ 50 _ 38 _ 54 __ 142 _____ 536

___ Normal ______________ 56 _ 58 _ 78 __ 192 __ 84 _ 76 _ 78 _ 238 _ 430 __ 50 _ 18 _ 34 __ 102 _____ 532

Roger Smith _____________ 62 _ 68 _ 94 __ 224 __ 64 _ 96 _ 64 _ 224 _ 448 __ 10 _ 22 _ 34 __ 066 _____ 514

___________________________________________________________

Extreme forecast report (provisional) _ 6 of 9 currently qualify (3 cold, 3 warm)

DCA _ RodneyS (coldest forecast -1.7) has a win here with the outcome -2.2.

NYC _ Tom (coldest forecast -1.9) has a win as the outcome was -2.1.

BOS _ No extreme forecast projected at -1.1, high score going to tied fourth lowest forecasts.

ORD _ Jakkelwx has a win with warmest forecast (+0.7) as ORD settled at +0.8. 

ATL _ Roger Smith (coldest forecast -1.0) has a win with the final value -1.2.

IAH _ No extreme forecast projected, anomaly (+1.1) is near consensus.

DEN _ No extreme forecast as DEN finished equal to third warmest forecast (+2.5) and would have qualified at +2.8. RodneyS, Brian5671 would have shared a win. For a moment I considered a shared loss but extreme forecast is only assessed when high score is either extreme or second extreme, had they not been tied (+3.0) this would be more evident.

PHX _ RodneyS (warmest forecast +3.4) will win here as PHX at +4.1 or higher. This high score also removed scoring boost protection from the field, so not just a win but like a no-hitter. The second highest forecast (DonS) was +2.8 which also scored well. Hudsonvalley21 had +2.5. 

SEA _ Brian5671 (warmest forecast +2.0) has a win as the final value is +3.3 despite a cool finish (month had been close to +4.0 earlier). This was the only location where we failed to break 80 for top score. 

Prince Frederick laid down his crown and his ermine robes, and wandered off to who knows where, promising to return next winter. That could be 2038 the way things were going the past two so-called winters. 

Meanwhile he asked me to defend the realm (which I won't due to a nasty combination of inability and lack of funding) and to start a summer heat forecast contest, which I think is the only real reason for this post. 

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to predict the highest temperatures to be observed at each of (you guessed it) BWI, DCA, IAD and SLC just kidding RIC. You can add SLC if you want, choose any number between 99 and 101 and you'll be right. 

Wonderful scenery, non-challenging climate they have round Utah, I would go and tell you more but they won't let me in because of some cough going around. 

Anyway, here's my opening salvo in this contest, torn between the idea that the cold spell in May guarantees a scorcher, or just possibly is a sign of some long awaited return to the climate of the 1850s. Fat chance of that, so I will go with 

BWI _ 103

DCA _ 103

IAD _ 101

RIC _ 102

and make the bold prediction that I will not be dead last, or dead, or last, but ya never know. 

The real deadline is not T384 but whenever we have a nice turnout and I spot anything on the model runs that looks like potential action in this contest. Let's say it won't close before June 10th end of day, but could go a few days past that. 

And once again I for one (insert verb of choice) my Mid-Atl overlords from my distant outpost beyond the hills. Get a 10% discount by mentioning "lack of contrails" in your post. 

Here's the annual "hurricane forecast contest" with a simplified format compared to other recent years, just the seasonal count is required this year, no monthly details. You can add your thoughts about that of course. The contest remains open to mid-June as the June monthly count won't be all that big a deal-breaker. Keep in mind that with Arthur's brief reign of slight disruption the count is already 1/0/0. 

My entry will be 20/13/7 so quite an active year and I suspect the main focus of activity may be the east coast for a change. That's not to say the usual areas of activity won't see their fair share, but I am expecting some fairly strong storms to develop in the Atlantic near the Carolinas possibly impacting the mid-Atlantic states more often than we've seen in several years. 

Post your forecasts and discussions ... 

(Possibly) Final report on Snowfall contest

While some chance remains for further snowfalls at DEN, this could be the final report too ... see comments at bottom for potential for any changes in the standings shown in part two of these tables (part one being your forecasts). 

FORECASTER _________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF____ DEN _  SEA _ BTV

___ Snowfall to date (May 15) ___ 0.6 __ 4.8 _ 15.8 ___ 34.8 __43.7 _ 69.2 ___ 57.6 __ 0.7 _ 69.7

Tom __________________________ 27.6 _ 48.1 _ 59.8 ___ 44.5 _ 39.8 _ 97.6 ___ 68.6 __ 4.8 _ 85.1

wxallannj _____________________ 22.4 _ 33.5 _ 44.7 ___ 38,9 _ 38.8 _ 69.6 ___ 41.3 __ 7.2 _ 79.4

wxdude64 ____________________ 20.6 _ 42.5 _ 54.1 ___ 50.6 _ 52.7 _100.9 ___ 69.8 __ 9.6 _ 97.4

BKViking ______________________19.0 _ 36.0 _ 51.0 ___ 42.0 _ 29.0 _ 84.0 ___ 55.0 __ 8.0 _ 77.0

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.8 _ 31.2 _ 47.7 ___ 42.2 _ 52.6 _ 91.3 ___ 61.1 __10.4 _ 88.8

Roger Smith __________________ 15.5 _ 38.5 _ 55.8 ___ 60.5 _ 60.2 _102.5 ___109.7__ 7.5 _110.5 

RodneyS ______________________14.4 _ 25.1 _ 40.0 ___ 35.0 _ 38.0 _100.0 ___ 80.0 __ 4.0 _ 88.0

Scotty Lightning _______________12.0 _ 24.0 _ 36.0 ___ 48.0 _ 67.0 _105.0 ___45.0 __14.0 _ 90.0

DonSutherland1 _______________10.0 _ 23.5 _ 36.0 ___ 30.0 _ 35.0 _110.0 ___ 83.0 __ 6.5 _ 90.0

___ consensus (mean) _________ 17.5 _ 33.6 _ 47.2 ____ 44.1 _ 45.9 __95.7 ___ 68.2 __ 8.0 _ 94.0

___ % to date ___________________ 3.5 __ 14 ___ 34 ______ 79 ___ 96 ___ 73 _____ 84 ___ 8.7 __ 75

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

It is quite unusual, I believe, for both DCA and SEA to have an essentially snowless winter, usually it would be one but not the other.

Current scoring for the snowfall contest

Unless shown in red, all these departures are errors on the higher side, and can be reduced if any further snowfall occurs at any locations (now only marginally possible for DEN and perhaps the inland northeast). 

FORECASTER _________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ____ TOTAL

wxallannj _____________________ 21.8 _ 28.7 _ 28.9 ____ 4.1 __ 4.9 __ 0.4 ___ 16.3 __ 6.5 __ 9.7 ___ 121.3

BKViking ______________________18.4 _ 31.2 _ 35.2 ____ 7.2 __14.7 _ 14.8 ____2.6 __ 7.3 __ 7.3 ___ 138.7

RodneyS ______________________13.8 _ 20.3 _ 24.2 ____ 0.2 __ 5.7 _ 30.8 ____ 22.4 __3.3 _ 18.3 ___ 139.0

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.2 _ 26.4 _ 31.9 ____ 7.4 __ 8.9 _ 22.1 _____3.5 __ 9.7 _ 19.1 ___ 144.2

DonSutherland1 ________________9.4 _ 18.7 _ 20.2 ____ 4.8 __ 8.7 __ 40.8 ___ 25.4 __ 5.8 _ 20.3 ___ 154.1

___ consensus (mean) _________ 16.9 _ 28.8 _ 31.4 _____ 9.3 __ 2.2 __26.5 ____ 10.6 __ 7.3 _ 24.3 ___ 157.3

Scotty Lightning _______________11.4 _ 19.2 _ 20.2 ___ 13.2 _ 23.3 _ 35.8 ____12.6__13.3 _ 20.3 ___ 169.3

Tom __________________________ 27.0 _ 43.3 _ 44.0 ____ 9.7 __ 3.9 _ 28.4 ____ 11.0 __ 4.1 _ 15.4 ___ 186.8

wxdude64 ____________________ 20.0 _ 37.7 _ 38.3 ___ 15.8 __ 9.0 _ 31.7 ___ 12.2 __ 8.9 _ 27.7 ___ 201.3

Roger Smith __________________ 14.9 _ 33.7 _ 40.0 ___ 25.7 _ 16.5 _ 34.3 ____ 52.1__ 6.8 _ 40.8 ___ 263.8

__________________________________________________________________________________

(Apr 1st) _ Standings are subject to change, especially if DEN picks up more snow, as the contest leader (wxallannj) will be accumulating error with additional DEN snowfall, and second place BKV has only 1.1" left before starting to do the same; third and fourth place Rodney and DonSutherland1 have some snow left to give -- Rodney can overtake the leader if 12" or more should fall at DEN.  Otherwise it would appear that a few more inches at say BTV or ORD-DTW would make no great difference to the outcome. So we await further developments at DEN. 

(Apr 15th) _ DEN has picked up 1.8" this month, BUF 0.9" and DTW 0.2" -- RodneyS now needs DEN snowfall of 10.5" although any further snow at DTW adds a bit to the task. 

(May 4th) _ ORD and DTW both added 4.7" since last report. For the three leaders, that generally meant no significant change as they had enough to absorb that addition at ORD and were already accumulating for DTW (wxallannj gained slightly as he was not quite over the limit for DTW.) The Midwest snow did move hudsonvalley21 past DonSutherland1 in the contest standings. Since DEN has added only 1.9" since last report above, given the above slight differential, that reduces the amount needed by  RodneyS now to 8.8" to catch wxallannj. RodneyS has moved to within 0.3" of second place BKV who is also now accumulating error points at DEN, so a further 0.2" would change those positions. BUF added 1.9", BOS 0.7" and BTV 0.1" -- these reduced all forecaster total errors equally.

(May 16th) _ Since the last report, DTW added 0.5" BUF 0.3" and BTV 0.1" (NYC trace !) ... these amounts leave the contest in the same situation awaiting any further snow which now is almost certain to be confined to DEN (if any falls, the current model run has no really strong indications of any). I will be posting this summary in the May thread and any further edits or comments will be found there. 

As I posted elsewhere on the forum, have been updating the Toronto (city) weather records and noted that the first record low minimum in May since 1923 was obtained on the 9th with 28 F (previous record 29 F in 1850). The maximum of 42 F on the 8th failed to beat the mark set in 1947 (41 F) and on the 9th 44 F missed the 1966 record by 1 deg also. The location saw six consecutive days with lowest temperatures since 1967 (an arbitrary division in my research data created by dates in a publication I used to generate the daily records against which I have checked all available internet historical data since then). The air temperatures of -0.4 (11th) and 0.0 (12th) represent latest of season for converted to 31F and 32F since 1924 (for the 31F with 30 on 21st) and 1936 (for the 32F on 16th). Previous to that the frost season extends later and later with the smaller urban heat island in place, and eventually reaches its latest observation of June 10 in 1842 (a reading of 28F which is both the latest 32 or colder, and tied for June extreme with an earlier date in 1843). There was a reading of 34 F on May 24, 1956, and a report of snow at YYZ on night of May 25 to 26 1961. That snow failed to reach the downtown location (back in a time when this was a first order continually observing site) and the morning low was 37 F. Going back to early June 1945 there were snow flurries reported at Toronto downtown, only the second occasion with June traces of snow (the other being 1859).

The latest 1.0" snowfall in the records was on 9th in 1923 (1.3"), and the latest 0.5" on 12th in 1966, with 0.2" on 15th of 1959 and the latest measurable amount 0.1" on 16th of 1884. After that daily records are all traces only and are quite infrequent. 

So this cold spell seems to be a benchmark event. I would be grateful for any thoughts about snow reports as my only guide for that now is snow depth reporting, the previous station listing both rain and snow amounts downtown ended operations in 2017. I assume that most of the 1.0 mm precip on May 8 was snow downtown, how about with the Sunday night into Monday event? That seemed more like either cold rain or melting snow at the location? 

Both 1966 and 1967 were very backward springs with unusually late leaf foliation, as I recall from reading my own high school era weather station west of Toronto, the trees were not fully in leaf until around the end of May those two years. I can also remember running at a track meet in Guelph ON in falling wet snow some time around the 10th of May in 1967, so if you had to choose one of those two summers to follow, I would say 1966 (a hot, dry summer) as opposed to 1967 (June was very warm and humid with excessive rainfalls, the rest of the summer rather cool). It was quite a contrast to the previous two years when May (1964,65) had well above normal temperatures and in both of those the weather turned quite chilly at the end of May into early June. 

Updated anomaly tracker (look down way down) ...

____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_____________ (8d) __________ --3.4 _ --2.0 _ +0.3 __ --3.4 _ --1.5 _ +3.3 ___ +2.2 _ +7.9 _ +2.1

____________ (15d) __________ --5.5 _ --4.5 _ --2.6 __ --3.9 _ --3.3 _ +1.0 ___ +0.3 _ +6.0 _ +5.0

____________ (22d) __________ --4.4 _ --3.5 _ --2.3 __ --2.6 _ --2.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.4 _ +3.8 _ +3.6

____________ (p15d) ________ --5.0 _ --5.0 _ --4.0 __ --6.0 _ --3.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +5.0 _ +1.5

____________ (p21d) ________ --3.5 _ --3.0 _ --2.0 __ --2.5 _ --2.0 _ +0.7 ____ 0.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.5

____________ (p25d) ________ --3.0 _ --3.0 _ --3.0 __ --4.0 _ --2.5 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +3.5 _ +0.5

_16th_______ (p31d) ________--2.0 _ --2.0 _ --1.5 __ --1.5 _ --1.0 _ +0.5 ____ 0.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5

_23rd_______ (p31d) ________ --3.0 _ --2.0 _ --1.0 __ --1.5 _ --1.5 _ +0.5 ___ +1.5_ +3.5 _ +3.0

_30th ______ (p 31 d) ________ --2.0 _--2.0 _ --1.0 __ +1.0 _--1.5 _ +0.5 ___ +2.5_ +3.5 _ +3.0 

Final anomalies _____________--2.2 _--2.1 _ --1.1 __ +0.8_--1.2 _+1.1 ___+2.5 _+4.1 _+3.3

_(9th) _ Turning exceptionally cold in eastern regions with near record daytime cold reported today in Midwest, and a rain-snow mix from a clipper expected within a day or two, so the current falling anomalies will likely bottom out around -6 later this week then recover slightly by 15th. The second half of the month does not look much warmer relative to normal. West has been sizzling and while DEN likely to find itself in a frontal zone next week, warmth will continue in the southwest. 

Snowfall contest report was updated in the March thread, I will post it over here mid-week following any updates for ORD, DTW, BUF and BTV that may occur (nothing noted since May 4th update yet). 

(16th) _ As expected the anomalies dropped rapidly in eastern and central regions with a rebound on the 15th, but the pattern this coming week looks rather cool after the weekend and negatives may be preserved right to the end of the month in reduced form. The west will remain on the warm side but DEN is close enough to the jet stream boundary that I am holding the projection near normal with lots of variation expected. While SEA has been running quite warm, inland at my location we are probably just a slight amount above normal after 15 days. We only had one day here that exceeded 25 C (a week ago Saturday) and otherwise a lot of near normal temperatures recently.

(23rd) _ Anomalies have remained unusually low in the east, not sure where the month ranks at U.S. locations but at Toronto it could be coldest May since 1997 or even 1967. In the west it has been generally quite warm to hot at times, and looks to remain that way (Denver will have some mixed results). Have updated the end of month provisionals and will post some preliminary scoring estimates based on those. No changes to snowfall anywhere since last report. DEN running out of time but season goes to June 30th.

(30th) _ Most of the provisionals are doing okay but ORD has run warmer than expected and has been adjusted. Scoring for ORD will be adjusted in the provisional scoring. DCA and DEN also slightly adjusted. 

(June 1st) _ Final anomalies are now all posted overnight and scoring adjusted. Final values are color coded. 

Table of forecasts for May 2020

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

Scotty Lightning _________+1.0 _+0.5 __0.0 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0

JakkelWx _______________ +0.6 _+0.2 _--0.5 __ +0.7 _+2.0 _+0.6 __ +1.1 _+1.4 _--0.5

BKViking ________________+0.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __ +0.5 _+2.2 _+1.1 __ +2.5 _+2.0 _+1.8

___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

RJay ____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___--1.0 _+1.0 __ 0.0 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0

Roger Smith ____________ --0.3 _--0.5 _--0.8 __ --1.0 _--1.0 _--0.7 __ --2.0 _+0.2 __0.0

wxallannj _______________ --0.4 _--0.5 _--0.6 __ --1.6 _+0.8 _+0.7 __ +1.2 _+2.0 _+1.5

___ Consensus __________ --0.4 _--0.6 _--0.8 __ --1.1 _+0.9 _+1.0 __ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.0

DonSutherland1 ________ --0.4 _--1.0 _--1.2 __ --1.0 _ +0.5 _+0.9 __ +1.1 _+2.8 _+1.0

hudsonvalley21 _________ --0.7 _--0.8 _--0.9 __ --1.2 _+0.9 _+1.4 __ +1.7 _+2.5 _+1.3

Brian5671 ______________ --1.0 _--1.5 _--2.0 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 __ +3.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 

wxdude64 ______________ --1.1 _--1.3 _--1.6 __ --1.9 _+0.8 _+1.2 __ +2.3 _+2.1 _+0.4

Tom ____________________--1.6 _--1.9 _--1.9 __ --2.2 _--0.9 _+0.5 __ +0.5 _+1.2 _+0.9

RodneyS ________________--1.7 _--1.7 _--1.2 __ --2.4 _--0.3 _+1.6 __ +3.0 _+3.4 _+1.4

___________________________________________________________

Very pleased not to have any late penalties this month ... consensus is the median of twelve forecasts,

or the mean of sixth and seventh ranked forecast for each location (not including Normal). Color codes

show the warmest and coldest forecasts for each location. Normal is colder for PHX than all forecasts.

In a couple of days I will have an update on the snowfall contest placed in this thread; the most recent 

update about three weeks ago was edited into a post in the March thread. There has been a bit of snow\

at DEN since then. 

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Apr) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > >

Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. 

Some late penalties in March were reduced (because of the April decision) and a few scores were adjusted in the March scoring tables. The increases were minor (5-12 points).

It was not deemed necessary to adjust February and there were no late penalties in January. 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

RodneyS ___________________280_ 228_246 __ 754 __327_207_206 __ 740 __1494 __282_254_222__758 ____ 2252

Don Sutherland.1 ___________232 _218_210 __ 660 __287_204_208 __ 699 __1359 __ 200_244_242__686 ____2045

RJay ______________________ 258 _251_189 __ 698 __183 _196 _217 __ 596 __1294 __218_285_210__713 ____2007

hudsonvalley21 ____________175 _172 _211 __ 558 __222 _208_203 __ 633 __1191 __217 _333_219__769____1960

wxallannj __________________204 _208 _209 __ 621 __203 _197 _226 __ 626 __1247 __208_292_202__702 ____1949

___ Consensus _____________184 _164 _205 __ 553__199 _187_222 __ 608 __1161 __208_322_222__752 _____1913

BKViking ___________________164 _160 _181 __ 505__196 _152 _202__ 550 __1055 __199_334_237__770 ____1825

Brian5671 _________________ 237 _213 _203 __ 653 __100 _228_219 __ 547 __1200 ___97_280_238__615 ____1815

Tom _______________________ 160 _140 _180 __ 480__189 _190 _195__ 574 __1054 __ 203_338_209__750 ____1804

Scotty Lightning ____________100 __ 70 _110 __ 280 __150 _179_258__ 587 __ 867 __ 176 _336_272__784 ____1651

wxdude64 __________________ 90 __ 74 __101 __ 265__154_155 _227__ 536 __ 801 __ 212 _276_169__657 ____1458

___ Normal __________________74 __ 50 __ 86 __ 210 __140 _138 _168__ 446 __ 656 __168_330_ 272__770 ____1426

Roger Smith ________________132__117 _158 __ 407 __157 _215_180__ 552 __ 959 __198 _156_100__454 ____1413

JakkelWx _ (2/4) ____________ 40 __ 21 __ 70 __ 131 __ 57 _ 59 _122 __ 238 __ 369 __ 90 _174 _ 56 __ 320 _____ 689

yoda _ (2/4) _________________64 __ 43 __ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 __ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686

rclab _ (1/4) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 __ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250

dwave _ (1/4) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 __ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292

Maxim _ (1/4) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 __ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182

-0.3 _ -0.5 _ -0.8 __ -1.0 _ -1.0 _ -0.7 __ -2.0 _ +0.2 __ 0.0

Final Scoring for April 2020

BOS scores are now adjusted to the max 60 rule as top raw score was 50. The new distribution favors everyone but me so I have lodged a protest with myself which I plan to ignore.  ... Normal score was adjusted to scale and on raw score was 30. NYC also finished colder than provisional and almost went the same way but I held on to 62 points there so no adjustments. ... Hudsonvalley21 late penalties are only 1 point where applied, those are marked with an asterisk (raw score was one higher) ... RJay had a 5% late penalty assigned as explained above in previous post. That leads to a separate line of final scoring with the raw scores partially hidden in the light orange type. 

FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS_east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __ TOTAL

___ Normal ___________ 70 _ 46 _ 56^__ 172 __ 88 _ 92 _ 74 __ 254 _ 426 __ 76 _ 70 _ 60 __ 206 ____ 632

DonSutherland.1 ______60 _ 36 _ 55^__ 151 __ 92 _ 78 _ 84 __ 254 _ 405 __ 86 _ 74 _ 30 __ 190 ____ 595

Scotty Lightning ______ 50 _ 26 _ 45^__ 121 __ 68 _ 62 _ 96 __ 226 _ 347 __ 56 _100 _70 __ 226 ____ 573

hudsonvalley21 (-1%) _ 51*_ 30 _ 50^__ 131 __ 81*_73*_87*__ 241 _ 372 __ 69*_ 67*_51*__187_566-7= 559

Roger Smith __________ 80 _ 62 _60^__ 202 __ 68 _ 88 _ 44 __ 200 _ 402 __ 64 _ 40 _ 44 __ 148 ____ 550

Tom __________________ 48 _ 28 _ 45^__ 121 __ 78 _ 56 _ 76 __ 210 _ 331 __ 82 _ 76 _ 30 __ 188 ____ 519

RJay __________________40 _ 16 _ 25^__ 081 __ 88 _ 62 _ 94 __ 244 _ 325 __ 76 _ 70 _ 60 __ 206 _ 531

RJay ____ (-5%) ________38 _ 15 _ 24^__ 077 __ 84 _ 59 _ 89 __ 232 _ 309 __ 72 _ 67 _ 58 __ 197 ____ 506

___ Consensus ________ 36 _ 16 _ 30^__ 082 __ 68 _ 48 _ 76 __ 192 _ 274 __ 76 _ 70 _ 44 __ 190 ____ 464

JakkelWx ______________12 _ 00 _ 30^__ 042 __ 50 _ 22 _ 74 __ 146 _ 188 __ 78 _ 86 _ 50 __ 214 ____ 402

RodneyS ______________ 34 _ 16 _ 35^__ 085 __ 74 _ 36 _ 36 __ 146 _ 231 __ 80 _ 66 _ 22 __ 168 ____ 399

BKViking ______________ 02 _ 00 _ 05^__ 007 __ 44 _ 12 _ 76 __ 132 _ 139 __ 66 _ 94 _ 80 __ 240 ____ 379

wxallannj ______________36 _ 14 _ 20^__ 070 __ 48 _ 48 _ 92 __ 188 _ 258 __ 52 _ 50 _ 14 __ 116 ____ 374

Brian5671 _____________00 _ 00 _ 15^__ 015 __ 28 _ 00 _ 46 __ 074 _ 089 __ 56 _ 90 _ 90 __ 236 ____ 325

wxdude64 _____________08 _ 00 _ 10^__ 018 __ 56 _ 30 _ 60 __ 146 _ 164 __ 98 _ 38 _ 08 __ 144 ____ 308

Maxim ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 _ 066 __ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 ____ 182

_____________________________________________________________________________

Extreme forecast report 

Going cold gave your host four extreme forecast awards (DCA, NYC, BOS, and ATL) with Normal sharing the ATL award.

At ORD DonS has the high score with second coldest forecast for a win, Roger Smith takes a loss here.

IAH ended up a little closer to our consensus and won't be an extreme forecast this month. 

DEN was running as cold as -4 for quite a while then warmed up big time, so wxdude64 has a win and Roger Smith another loss. 

PHX has verified right on the money for warmest forecast (Scotty Lightning at +1.5).

SEA has warmed considerably against our expectations and that gives Brian5671 a win with warmest forecast still a half degree below the outcome.

So the summary would be 4-2 for Roger Smith on the month, and wins for Normal, DonS, SL, wxdude64 and Brian5671. 

________________________________________

Annual update follows, after revision of some penalized scoring in March. DonS has moved up several spots and RodneyS has a much smaller lead than last month, some shuffling of the deck below that. 

In my case, it's the broken clock syndrome. Figures that nature would waste below normal on April after that sad excuse for a winter though ...

Have decided the following on the late penalty situation. Just happy that we seem to have survived the pandemic, so will be reducing earlier issued late penalties and just tapping RJay lightly for his entry at the new max of 5%. Former late penalties will be basically cut in half with the same max. I can edit the scoring in earlier threads to reflect this (no penalties were that much bigger anyway so won't be much of an adjustment of scores already posted) ... I really wanted to go with the no penalty sentiment but then I have these pre-existing late penalties already applied, seemed a bit too lenient to say zero. But I realize that RJay made a forecast under health duress and probably without much influence from guidance. So I needed to balance all of those considerations. Moving forward, I will just set the late penalties a bit more leniently but they will be applied where necessary. The new standard will be 1% for every 8 hours late up to 2 days (8%) then 1% added per hour. 

Hope people think this is a fair solution for everyone. Scoring to follow, updating the anomalies tonight (a few posts back now).