Roger Smith

In the source region (for next week's mega cold) at present time, Shepherd Bay (Nunavut) reports -56 F (-48.6 C) which is close to its all-time record low. I notice on the latest guidance that the 474 dm thickness crosses into MN and WI and reaches Chicago before being squeezed out of the air mass. This may back off closer to the time, but even 486 dm thickness would be very unusual at that latitude. 

Shepherd Bay is near the base of the Boothia Peninsula on the arctic mainland around 70 deg N. It is not some frost hollow location like Mayo, Yukon. 

Seriously, I hope the atmosphere takes advantage of all this mega-cold draining out of central Canada because I do feel like there is a flip to sustained warmth coming by mid to late February that will wipe out March entirely as a snow producer (my forecast being much above normal temps). This winter has some similarities to 1944-45, did you score that winter? All I know about it, the temp trend at Toronto went from bitter cold late January to normal Feb to warmest March and first half April on record (it did snow in late April though). 

Well, Feb 1954 was warmest on record in southern Ontario, at least back when I was still living there, might not be any more I suppose. March was near normal and it turned cold for a time in early April. The spring of 1977 saw a rapid reversal of the severe cold of January around 10th of February and it stayed generally near-record warm most of the spring. A similar but subdued pattern repeated in 1987 with the warmth peaking in the summer. I don't remember much of winter 1995 as we were packing to move but I think it was variable more than any one trend. And I was out west by 2007, would have to look that one up. There have been some similar storm tracks to 1991-92 this past winter also (frequently Ohio valley to eastern Lake Ontario). That was not a particularly memorable winter where I was living, all elements fairly close to average IIRC. Where does 1929-30 fit into your thinking? There was a noteworthy warm spell in mid-February of 1930 in the eastern and central regions. I know it was relatively high solar but frankly I tend to discount solar during long active periods (as to being high or low), it's only when you get a prolonged downturn that you see real correlations with temperature anomaly. 

Table of Departures

This table is based on the earlier table of forecasts compared to the ongoing snowfall to date table above. Entries in this table in black are amounts left to use up. Entries in red are already accumulating errors as the station total has passed the forecast value. As of Feb 27th, the table of departures is placed in contest order. The table of forecasts is repeated below this table of departures for easier reference. The total contest snowfall has now passed the three lowest forecasts of total snowfall.

Updated through May 9th.

FORECASTER ________ APN_ORD_CLE_CMH_DTW_FWA_GRR_GRB_IND_ LSE__YXU_ SDF__MQT _MKE_MSP_MLI__PAH_PIA_STL_ YYZ __TOTAL_rank

Roger Smith __________8.9_14.5_44.8__0.4_13.7__5.3 _ 8.7__4.0__7.6_ 9.3__53.0__0.7_27.0_10.6_11.1_21.8__5.9__6.4__ 9.7__0.1___263.5 __ 1

vpbob21 ____________ 23.0__5.4_14.3__7.3_11.9_ 8.5_15.4_27.0_12.0_25.5__36.1_13.4_ 11.5_11.4_24.2_15.7_ 10.8_ 0.1__2.4__3.1___278.8 __ 2

slowpoke ___________ 27.4__7.5_21.8 _1.6__6.7__5.3_13.3_25.0__5.6_22.3__32.0__0.8__39.5__9.1_30.1_20.8__ 5.9__7.4__2.2__7.1___291.4 __ 3

Mississauga Snow _____ 3.4_10.5_ 5.8__5.4_18.7__6.3_11.3_29.0__2.4_29.3__46.0_ 0.2__27.5_22.1_22.1_20.8__8.9_10.4__5.8__ 8.1___294.4 __ 4

cyclone77 ____________9.4__5.5_23.8__1.6__ 9.7 _1.3__8.3_27.0__4.6_22.3__44.0__2.2__52.5_13.1_30.1_14.8_ 4.9__5.4_ 0.2_14.1___294.8 __ 5

___ Contest normal ___ 19.0_11.4_32.0__1.0_13.5_ 9.3__4.2_19.8__6.5_18.2__41.7__2.7__27.7__6.9_26.5 _27.3__3.1_11.5__5.8_12.6___300.7 _ (6)

___ Contest median ___22.4__7.5_30.9__0.1_13.7_ 8.5 __6.3_25.0__6.8_23.7__36.1__2.8__39.5_13.1_29.4_21.8__8.9__7.4__2.2__5.9___312.0*_ (6)

DAFF _______________24.4_12.5_14.8__1.4_ 7.7__5.3__ 8.3_23.0 _0.6_19.3__31.0__0.8__55.5_15.1_29.1_22.8__7.9__7.4__7.2_18.1___312.2 __ 6

madwx ______________14.9__4.1_30.9_ 0.1_20.8_11.4__6.2_24.2__6.8_23.0__31.1__3.0__46.3_13.8_28.8_20.1__5.3_10.1__8.0__3.8___312.7 __ 7

Jackstraw ___________ 27.4_19.5_55.8__0.4__ 9.7_11.3__6.3_25.0_11.6_33.3__30.0__2.8__15.5_21.1_47.1_26.8_15.9_16.4__8.2__9.1___393.2 __ 8

Stebo ______________ 34.4_14.5_47.8__5.4_ 16.7_12.3__4.3_29.0__5.6_29.3__26.0__6.8__42.5_16.1_42.1_29.8_11.9_16.4__4.2__5.1___400.2 __ 9

dmc76 ______________22.4__3.7_47.2_11.5_27.1_23.1__0.7_ 18.4_ 9.4 _23.7__70.4__6.5__38.5__2.1_29.4_33.8_14.9_14.4__0.8_ 8.1__ 406.1 __10

DonSutherland.1 ______17.7__0.5_48.7_17.6_25.2_16.8__1.1_ 25.1_23.3_26.1__75.4_11.8__82.3__9.0_36.7_28.5_12.4__1.4__1.0__5.9 __470.5 __11

note: bold entries are now current location winners in the contest. 

All forecasts passed by actual at MQT, MLI, LSE, MSP, GRB and on April 14, APN, PIA and MKE.

... (at MQT and PIA vpbob21 had high forecast, at MLI slowpoke had high forecast, at MKE the winner is now dmc76, at APN high forecast and the win goes to Mississauga Snow, and at the other three GRB MSP and LSE, Roger Smith). As a result, those eight locations now have a confirmed winner. ORD also has a confirmed winner (DonS) although he has 0.5" more predicted than actual. 

YYZ has been passed by all but one now, dmc76 still has 8.1" but needs 4.0" more to take that one away from current low departure 0.1" (RS)

STL has passed all but four forecasts. 

These locations have not yet passed any forecast (so minimum forecast could win) ... CLE, DTW, FWA, YXU, PAH. ... IND has passed one forecast so far.

_______________________________________________________________________________

*contest median total is sum of twenty median forecasts, the median total is 984.0

... ranks of contest normal and median do not change ranks of forecasters in contest, and they are independent of each other's rank. 



Tiebreakers (same order as table of entries) -- winners in green when settled

-- amounts shown here are forecasts not errors or departures

dmc76 ______________ Dec ORD 10.2" __ Jan IND 11.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.0"

Roger Smith __________Dec ORD 13.5" __ Jan IND 10.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.5"

DonSutherland.1 ______ Dec ORD 11.7" __ Jan IND 13.7" ___ Feb DTW 14.2"

vpbob21 _____________ Dec ORD 3.6" ___Jan IND 9.4" ____ Feb DTW 13.1"

madwx ______________ Dec ORD 9.2" ___ Jan IND 8.4" ____Feb DTW 18.3"

Mississauga Snow ______ Dec ORD 4.1" ___ Jan IND 11.0"___ Feb DTW 16.0" ___ closest Dec ORD

cyclone77 ____________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 9.6" ____ Feb DTW 13.4"

Jackstraw ____________ Dec ORD 4.5" ___ Jan IND 12.0"___ Feb DTW 10.5" ___ closest Jan IND

slowpoke _____________ Dec ORD 6.0" ___ Jan IND 7.0" ___ Feb DTW 8.0" ____ closest Feb DTW

Stebo _______________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 10.2" ___Feb DTW 15.2"

DAFF________________ Dec ORD 10.7" ___Jan IND 13.8" ___Feb DTW 14.9"

(mean of above entries) _________7.9" __________ 10.6" ___________ 13.5"

actual snowfall _________________1.4" __________11.7" ____________ 7.3" 

=================================================================================

Table of forecasts (repeated from earlier post)

FORECASTER _________ APN_ORD_CLE_CMH_DTW__FWA_GRR_GRB_IND_LSE__YXU_SDF__MQT_MKE_MSP_MLI__PAH_PIA__STL_YYZ __ TOTAL

dmc76 _______________77.0_45.8_82.4_38.9_58.4_47.8_82.0_55.6_28.8_40.6_104.4_17.7__189.0_54.0_47.7_27.0_21.0_22.0_25.0_63.2__1128.3

Roger Smith __________ 90.5_35.0_80.0_27.0_45.0_30.0_90.0_70.0_27.0_55.0__87.0_10.5__200.5_45.5_66.0_39.0_12.0_30.0_14.5_55.0__1109.5

DonSutherland.1 _______81.7_50.0_83.9_45.0_56.5_41.5_82.4_48.9_42.7_38.2_109.4_23.0__145.2_47.1_40.4_32.3_18.5_35.0_25.2_49.2__1096.1

vpbob21 _____________ 76.4_44.1_49.5_34.7_43.2_33.2_65.9_47.0_31.4_38.8__70.1_24.6__216.0_44.7_53.1_45.1_16.9_36.3_26.6_52.0__1049.6

___ Contest normal ____ 80.4_38.1_67.2_28.4_44.8_34.0_77.1_54.2_25.9_46.1__75.7_13.9__199.8_49.2_50.6_33.5__9.2_24.9_18.4_42.5___1013.9

madwx _______________84.5_45.4_66.1_27.3_52.1_36.1_75.1_49.8_26.2_41.3__65.1_14.2__181.2_42.3_48.3_40.7_11.4_26.3_16.2_51.3__1000.9

___ Contest median ____77.0_42.0_66.1_27.3_45.0_33.2_75.0_49.0_26.2_40.6__70.1_14.0__188.0_43.0_47.7_39.0_15.0_29.0_22.0_49.2___998.4*

Mississauga Snow _____ 96.0_39.0_41.0_22.0_50.0_31.0_70.0_45.0_17.0_35.0__80.0_11.0__200.0_34.0_55.0_40.0_15.0_26.0_30.0_47.0___984.0

cyclone77 ____________ 90.0_44.0_59.0_29.0_41.0_26.0_73.0_47.0_24.0_42.0__78.0__9.0__175.0_43.0_47.0_46.0_11.0_31.0_24.0_41.0___980.0

Jackstraw ____________ 72.0_30.0_91.0_27.0_41.0_36.0_75.0_49.0_31.0_31.0__64.0_14.0__212.0_35.0_30.0_34.0_22.0_20.0_16.0_46.0___976.0

slowpoke _____________72.0_42.0_57.0_29.0_38.0_30.0_68.0_49.0_25.0_42.0__66.0_12.0__188.0_47.0_47.0_40.0_12.0_29.0_22.0_48.0___963.0

Stebo ________________65.0_35.0_83.0_22.0_48.0_37.0_77.0_45.0_25.0_35.0__60.0_18.0__185.0_40.0_35.0_31.0_18.0_20.0_20.0_50.0___949.0

DAFF ________________75.0_37.0_50.0_26.0_39.0_30.0_73.0_51.0_20.0_45.0__65.0_12.0__172.0_41.0_48.0_38.0_14.0_29.0_17.0_37.0___919.0

______________________________________

*contest median total is sum of twenty median forecasts, the median total is 984.0



Tiebreakers (same order as table of entries)

dmc76 ______________ Dec ORD 10.2" __ Jan IND 11.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.0"

Roger Smith __________Dec ORD 13.5" __ Jan IND 10.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.5"

DonSutherland.1 ______ Dec ORD 11.7" __ Jan IND 13.7" ___ Feb DTW 14.2"

vpbob21 _____________ Dec ORD 3.6" ___Jan IND 9.4" ____ Feb DTW 13.1"

madwx ______________ Dec ORD 9.2" ___ Jan IND 8.4" ____Feb DTW 18.3"

Mississauga Snow ______ Dec ORD 4.1" ___ Jan IND 11.0"___ Feb DTW 16.0"

cyclone77 ____________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 9.6" ___ Feb DTW 13.4"

Jackstraw ____________ Dec ORD 4.5" ___ Jan IND 12.0"___Feb DTW 10.5"

slowpoke _____________ Dec ORD 6.0" ___ Jan IND 7.0" ___ Feb DTW 8.0"

Stebo _______________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 10.2" ___Feb DTW 15.2"

DAFF________________ Dec ORD 10.7" ___Jan IND 13.8" ___Feb DTW 14.9"

(mean of above entries) _________7.9" __________ 10.6" ___________ 13.5"

Snowfalls to date -- to May 9, 2019 

-- this post will be updated whenever new snow is reported ... 

LOCATION _______ Oct __Nov __Dec __Jan _ Feb _Mar _Apr+May Contest total __ % Normal (full season)

APN ______________ 0.2__11.2 __11.5__33.6 __24.7__ 8.1 __10.1 ____ 99.4 _______ 124

ORD ______________ Tr __12.7 __ 1.4 __18.2 __ 9.0 __ 0.3 __ 7.9 ____49.5 _______ 130

CLE _______________0.0 __ 4.4 __ 2.8 __16.0 __ 5.4 __ 6.6 __ 0.0 ____35.2 ________ 52

CMH ______________0.0 __ 2.1 __ 0.4 __11.3__11.6 __ 2.0 __ 0.0 ____ 27.4 ________ 96

DTW ______________ Tr __ 6.7 __ 0.5 __14.2 __ 7.3 __ 2.6 __ 0.0 ____ 31.3 ________ 70

FWA ______________0.0 __ 2.1 __ 0.1 __14.3 __ 5.4 __ 2.7 __ 0.1 ____ 24.7 ________ 73

GRR ______________ Tr __14.4 __ 3.2 __30.5__ 20.4 __ 7.9 __ 4.9 ____ 81.3 _______105

GRB ______________ Tr __ 3.8 __ 8.1 __22.7 __ 28.4 __ 6.5 __ 4.5 ____ 74.0 _______137

IND _______________Tr __ 0.4 __ 0.5 __ 11.7 __ 4.5 __ 2.3 __ 0.0 ____ 19.4 ________ 75

LSE ______________ 0.1 __ 1.9 __ 4.0 __15.1__ 31.1 __ 5.9 __ 6.2 ____ 64.3 _______ 139

YXU ______________ 0.0 __ 3.2 __ 2.0 __16.0 __ 9.4 __ 2.8 __ 0.6 ____ 34.0 ______ 45

SDF ______________ 0.0 __ 0.5 __ Tr ___ 7.5 __ 0.6 __ 2.6 __ 0.0 ____ 11.2 _________81

MQT ______________4.2 _ 37.7 _ 39.0 __34.1 _ 89.9 __ 8.2 __ 8.6+5.8_227.5 ____ 114

MKE ______________ Tr __ 6.6 __ 1.5 __20.2 __18.7 __ 1.6 __ 7.5 ____ 56.1 ________ 114

MSP ______________0.3 __ 4.0 __ 6.7 __ 6.8 __39.0 __10.5 __ 9.8 ____ 77.1 _______ 151

MLI ______________ 0.2 _ 18.4 __ 1.1 __30.2 __ 8.8 __ 2.1 __ 0.0 ____ 60.8 ________ 181

PAH ______________0.0 __ 2.3 __ Tr ___ 3.2 __ 0.3 __ 0.3 __ 0.0 _____ 6.1 _________ 66

PIA _______________Tr __ 9.8 __ 0.4 __17.9 __ 2.5 __ 0.8 __ 5.0 ____ 36.4 _________146

STL ______________0.0 __ 5.2 __ 1.7 __12.5 __ 2.4 __ 2.4 __ 0.0 ____ 24.2 _________132

YYZ ______________1.0 __ 6.2 __ 2.2 __24.9 __17.3 __ 3.3 __0.2 ____ 55.1 _________130

________ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______

Total _____________________________________________________ 1094.6 _____ 108.0%

_____________________________________________________________________________

_ All locations updated to May 2nd. ORD had 2.5" MKE 1.7" and LSE 0.3" on Apr 27th, YYZ 0.1" on 29th and MQT 5.4" on May 1st and 0.4" May 7-9. 

... Canadian locations are converted to inches from cms. 

... LSE and GRB became 6th and 7th locations to pass contest average on 20th. MSP is now the 8th and MQT the 9th station to pass 1986-2015 contest averages.

... APN surpassed seasonal average but the addition came from a revised November total. That makes ten stations above contest average now.

... MKE edged past contest normal on April 10th. GRR reached contest normal on April 11th and passed it on the 14th.

... CMH is within 4% of seasonal average but is running out of time to increase.

... The least snow relative to normal has fallen at YXU (45%) and CLE (52%).

... The remaining five locations (DTW, FWA, IND, SDF, PAH) are in the 66 to 81 per cent range. 

TOTAL SNOWFALL PASSED THE CONTEST NORMAL VALUE ON MARCH 30th. 

Still thinking that we are entering the best part of the winter for eastern states, one or more of these energy peaks seems likely to deliver good snowstorm events: Feb 2-4, Feb 12-15 and/or Feb 17-20. The predecessor events in the series have tracked mostly inland and delivered to regions like the eastern Great Lakes, interior New England, central PA, Ohio. With a bit of retrograde influence peaking in early to mid February, expect the storm track to loop further south ending up closer to the east coast. I am holding to my earlier prediction that a warm trend would then quickly develop into March and that March-April might be well above normal in temperature in many parts of eastern and central NA. 

From a different research perspective I am expecting a peak in retrogression and blocking in mid-February. Is there any chance that the MJO index has some correlation to externally driven factors? I have not had much time to investigate this, but the retrograde index that I use has periods like 90 and 120 days (won't say more precisely what they are outside a research paper). And is the MJO a retrograde feature or random in its movements relative to longitude? 

I have thought all along that this would be a difficult winter to forecast because of the competing influences of El Nino (a warming influence) and the combination of low solar and prior negative anomaly buildups in a source region (central arctic of Canada). Rather like saying your football team has a strong offence and almost no defence, will you be favored to win or lose?

Reality has passed the following numbers of forecasts:

BWI _ 1 forecast surpassed.

DCA _ 5 forecasts surpassed.

IAD _ 3 forecasts surpassed.

RIC _ 12 forecasts surpassed. 

and I think SBY has passed one of 55 who chose it,  LYH has not passed any of its three forecasts.

After the widespread snowfalls of the past few days, the contest grid has now passed the 40% mark (table is back in the thread, first posted Dec 17th and edited up to date). STL has passed its average for 1986-2015. MQT has roughly one quarter of all the snow recorded and is a little over half of its seasonal average at 105" now. Plenty of snowfall opportunities appear on the charts so we should at least keep pace with normal snowfall for a while yet. I think that 40% on January 21st is probably a touch below average pace but not much, as February and March contribute at least 40% of a normal winter's snowfall and April perhaps 5%, so we should be at about 55% at the end of this month to be on a normal pace. That would only take 150" of snow over the 20-station grid or an average of 7.5" per location in the next ten days. The location doing worst so far is YXU sub Tillsonburg although they have yet to report the second half of the snowstorm and could go up from current 18% of normal. MSP and LSE are also in a snow drought relatively speaking in the low 20's for percentages. The highest performers behind STL (now at 103%) are MLI and PIA (both at 93%). That is largely because of their totals in November. (MLI took over the lead on Jan 23rd).

Forecasts are generally still ahead of actuals, with a few exceptions for STL, MLI and PIA. But these are some of the error totals you now have locked in from those locations (updated for Jan 22nd snow at MLI, none reported at STL or PIA) ... this has changed as of Jan 23rd, see the scoring table two posts down for updated info as MLI added 5.9" and PIA 0.1" bringing in contest normal (MLI) and adding to all of these totals. The table below was valid after Jan 22nd but won't be updated.

dmc76 _____ 7.7" __ (MLI and PIA, still 6.0" to give at STL)

Jackstraw ___6.2" __ (PIA and STL)

Stebo ______ 5.7" __ (PIA and MLI, almost caught at STL with 1.0" left to give)

Roger Smith _4.5" __ (STL only)

madwx _____ 2.8" __ (STL only)

DAFF _______2.2" __ (STL only)

DonSutherland 1.2" __ (MLI only)

and the rest of the field are so far not into red numbers on any of these. ... The entire field have amounts left to use up everywhere else. 

Best chances for thunder probably around 8 p.m. to 2 a.m. ahead of the low center which will be close to FDK around 0400h. A secondary peak will accompany the cold front mid-day Sunday. 

Low is currently in w TN and track appears to be something like CRW to 50n FDK to PHL to ISP to BOS. There may be some eastward jogs in that overall e.n.e. to n.e. track. So I would expect some interesting weather to develop later because this is not advecting warm air very efficiently and when heavier precip moves in over top, it could change phase in some parts of MD and far n VA, ne WV. Not saying snow from that, more like ice pellets or sleet. Eventually it will begin to draw in the high 50s and low 60s temps from se VA but I think a very sharp demarcation of air masses will develop overnight so that some counties of se MD will reach 60-65 and the I-95 will stay around 40-45, further north 33-38. This is when precip could get quite thundery. When the low center reaches NYC the arctic cold front will be rushing southeast and temps on Sunday will likely fall 20-30 deg in a few hours, from those variable numbers in the warm sector and frontal zone, to 10-15 F. Some bursts of moderate snow are possible with the passage of the arctic front, 0.1 to 0.3 inch forecast for the airports and 1.0 inch for some parts of nw MD. 

So for the northern half of the forum it won't be a simple case of warming up, raining, and turning colder. For the southern half it may play out like that more so. 

I don't want the UK

I just want a KU,

I don't want the Euro

I just want a big snow,

I don't want the RGEM,

I just want a front end,

I don't want the GFS,

I just want these storms suppressed

a little. 

a little. 

a little.

a little. 

The table is how much more snow you need, so it's consistent with your forecast as you quoted it. 

Thunder-frozen possible from I-95 northwestward (in MD) and north of an east-west vector from Dale City (in VA). Most likely MoCo to Baltimore county. 

Still looks like it would not take much pressure from the cold air to force a center jump from CRW to se DCA and allow wintry precip to continue in much of this region. It's a steadily deepening low which is good in that the energy will force cold air to flow into the CAD zone. My gut says 1-2" snow followed by sleet, non-accum zr, then back to sleet and a top off of 0.5" snow in a final plunge. SBY could hit 60 while BWI and DCA remain 35-40, IAD 32-35 F. Some thunder with all of the above. While it could have been so much better, at least it's interesting. 

I updated the table of snowfalls required from amounts reported in this recent event (0.9" BWI, 1.0" DCA, 1.8" IAD).

The table is back a page now, here's the amounts still required in much reduced print size if you want to see them right away. 

Note, I backed this work up with an excel file, the only possible source of error now would be if I have entered anyone's predictions incorrectly.

SNOWFALL CONTEST AMOUNTS STILL REQUIRED

(entries in brackets = amounts now in excess of season to date)

Forecaster _____ Nov date _____ BWI ___ DCA ___ IAD ___ RIC _____ Total dep

Snow to date __ 18 Jan ____ 9.2 ___ 12.7 ___ 15.4 __ 13.0

EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 _______ 1.7 ___ (6.2) ___ (4.3) __ (4.3) _____ 16.5

Bristow Wx _________ 1 _______ 4.6 ___ (6.0) ___ (2.8) __ (4.3) _____ 17.7 

MN Transplant _____ 28 _______ 8.6 ___ 1.5 _____ 4.2 ___ (5.2) _____ 19.5

supernovasky _______ 9 _______10.8 ___ (1.7) ___ 3.6 ___ (4.0) _____ 20.1

RodneyS __________ 21 ______ 11.1 ___ 1.2 ____ 8.2 ____ 0.3 ______ 20.8 

biodhokie __________ 8 ______ 12.1 ___ 5.1 ____ 2.7 ____ 1.5 ______ 21.4

leesburg 04 _________1 ______ 12.8 ___(0.7)____ 7.6 ____(2.0) _____ 23.1 

Weather53 _________21 _____  12.0 ___ 3.8 ____ 6.7 ____ 1.7 ______ 24.2

Olafminesaw _______25 ______ 10.2 ___ 4.6 ____ 8.1 ____(3.2) _____ 26.1

Stormpc ___________26 ______10.7 ___ 4.0 ____ 9.2 ____ 4.2 ______ 28.1

nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 ______  12.8 ___ 3.3 ____ 9.6 ____(5.0) _____ 30.7

Bob Chill __________ 27 ______ 16.8 ___ 3.3 ___ 13.6 ____ 1.0 ______ 34.7

Prince Frederick Wx _ 1 _______ 15.3 ___ 5.0 ___ 12.4 ____ 4.1 ______ 36.8

WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 ______ 13.8 ___ 5.3 ___ 16.6 ____ (2.0) _____ 37.7

dmillz25 ____________1 ______ 19.8 ___ 6.3 ____ 9.6 ____(2.0) _____ 37.7

Chris78 ____________ 1 ______ 17.5 ___ 5.7 ___ 13.2 ____ 1.9 ______ 38.3

Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 ______ 18.4 ___ 5.6 ___ 10.4 ____ (5.5) _____ 39.9

Grothar of Herndon _ 30 ______ 16.5 ___ 5.6 ___ 13.7 ____ 6.2 ______ 42.0

MillvilleWx __________1 ______ 18.2 ___ 8.4 ___ 14.1 ____ 2.0 ______ 42.7

cae ______________ 30 ______ 18.4 ___ 9.1 ___ 15.9 ____(0.3)______ 43.7

Gopper ___________ 15 ______ 19.6 ___ 5.0 ___ 17.9 ____ 2.5 ______ 45.0

Gramax Refugee ____27 ______ 20.3 ___ 4.2 ___ 16.6 ____ 4.2 ______ 45.3

Wonderdog ________ 9 _______17.8 ___ 3.3 ___ 17.6 ____ 7.0 ______ 45.7

NorthArlington101 ___ 1 ______ 16.5 ___10.1 ___ 16.8 ____ 3.0 ______ 46.4

Yoda _____________ 27 ______ 20.4___ 9.1 ___ 17.5 ____ 1.1 ______ 48.1

WxWatcher007 _____30 ______ 19.7 ___ 8.4 ___ 17.1 ____ 3.4 ______ 48.6

mattie g __________ 28 ______ 21.4 ___ 8.4 ___ 23.3 ____ 0.9 ______ 54.0

Prestige Worldwide __27 ______ 21.8___10.3 ___ 19.6 ____ 2.8 ______ 54.5

North Balti Zen ______5 ______ 19.6 ___ 8.4 ___ 20.3 ____ 6.6 ______ 54.9

___ Consensus ____ median ___ 21.4___10.0 ___ 19.6 ____ 4.0 ______ 55.0

Shadowzone _______ 14 ______ 22.5___11.4 ___ 20.3 ____ 3.8 ______ 58.0

LP08 ______________ 5 ______ 25.2 ___ 7.0 ___ 27.2 ____ 0.3 ______ 59.7

WxUSAF ___________ 5 ______ 22.3 ___10.0 ___ 19.8 ____ 8.1 _____ 60.2

mappy _____________5 ______ 22.8___12.3 ___ 19.6 ____ 6.0 ______ 60.7

George BM ________ 15 ______ (7.5) __(11.3) __ (12.4) __ 29.7 _____ 60.9

Sparky ____________ 2 ______ 24.8___12.3 ___ 23.6 ____ 1.0 ______ 61.7

BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _____ 24.8___11.3 ___ 22.6 ____ 4.0 ______ 62.7

T. August _________ 21 ______ 26.8___10.2 ___ 12.1 ____16.2______ 65.3

Cobalt ____________ 30 ______ 24.0___14.2 ___ 24.0 ____ 3.8 ______ 66.0

clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ___28.3___14.8 ___ 21.1 ____ 5.5 ______ 69.7

OnceinaLifetime2009_ 28 ______20.9___14.0 ___ 29.1 ____ 6.9 ______ 70.9

HighStakes _________ 6 ______ 28.2___11.8 ___ 25.7 ____ 7.0 ______ 72.7

ravensrule _________12 ______ 28.8___17.3 ___ 24.6 ____ 2.0 ______ 72.7

psuhoffman ________ 1 ______ 29.8___15.3 ___ 21.6 ____ 7.0 ______ 73.7

C. A. P. E. __________1 ______ 29.3___17.6 ___ 20.4 ____ 7.1 ______ 74.4

Roger Smith _______ 26 ^ 1___ 34.6___16.5 ___ 27.1 ____ 8.0 ______ 86.2

JakkelWx _________ 30 ______ 30.8___22.3 ___ 26.6 ___ 11.0 ______ 90.7

GATECH __________ 1 _______ 35.7___23.0 ___ 32.1 ____ 1.3 ______ 92.1

southMDwatcher ___ 20 _______34.6___18.4 ___ 32.5 ____ 7.7 ______ 93.2

budice2002  _______ 14 ______ 32.8___18.3 ___ 30.6 ____13.0 ______ 94.7

weatherCCB _______ 16 ______ 37.6___14.7 ___ 34.2 ____10.0 ______ 96.5

snowgolfbro _______ 10 ______ 37.8___17.3 ___ 36.6 ____ 5.0 ______ 96.7

nj2va _____________ 1 _______39.5___16.5 ___ 44.5 ____ 5.9 ______106.4

SnowLuvrDude _____30 ______ 39.4___24.4 ___ 37.0 ____ 8.7 ______109.5

showmethesnow ___ 27 ______ 40.8___21.3 ___ 38.6 ___ 11.0 ______ 111.7

tplbge ____________16 _______43.8___21.3 ___ 33.6 ___ 16.0 ______114.7

wxdude64 ________ 13 _______46.6___25.7 ___ 42.0 ___ 13.1 ______127.4

osfan24 ___________ 7 _______45.1 __33.5 ___ 40.5 ___ 18.3 ______ 137.4

AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 _______55.8 __27.3 ___ 40.6 ___ 15.0 ______ 138.7

RIC Airport ________ 1 _______53.3 __33.3 ___ 46.5 ___ 19.2 ______ 152.3

__________________________________________________________

Euro not very encouraging but you never know with these lows moving southeast away from the Rockies, they can stay wide and come up the coast. Thursday's overperforming snow might be a tip that cold is not giving up without a fight. Would see if 12z model runs start to show a coastal trend. 

AIRPORTS:

IAD 1.5" __ DCA 1.0" __ BWI 0.6" 
(to midnight)

A clipper a day keeps the snow drought away. 

Southward trends as models come more in line with fantasy forecast ... still not sure if this can get all the way to an all or mostly snow outcome but models have at least realized what was fairly obvious yesterday, this low was not likely to suck up a lot of warm air with that lurching trough and a frigid Canadian high pushing down, nor was it ever going to see the sights of Pittsburgh, Scranton or Springfield, MA. 

Looks like one of those early spring lows that never advects warm air and gets hammered from all sides by cold air with an explosion of thunder-sleet, ice pellets, and winds backing around the compass for hours. 

They will get a good cover from all the snow falling off vehicles turned around at the Donner Pass. 

That is one ugly baby. 

Mid-Atlantic weather crew's greatest hits ...

"Once in a lifetime (jet stream flowing under) ...

Once in a lifetime (snow drifts getting bigger) ...

and you may ask

where is my cold air damming?

and you may ask

where are my cold 850s?

(same as it ever was)

(same as it ever was) ..."

Oh great, that should add a few hundred feet to the inversion cloud layer above my head then. 

Here's a schematic ...

^

^^^ - - - - - - - - 10 deg C 

^^^^^^ %@%@%@%@%@% cloud @%@%@%@%@% ^^^^^

^^^^^^^^^^^ ------------- drizzle ----------- drizzle ---- ^^^^^^^

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ moi ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

These would be my reasons for optimism, but even so I would currently say 30% chance of 5" snowfall as far south as I-95. A lot of things have to go right to get this to be a mostly snow event in this area.

First thing would be for the leading wave to drop 1-3" snow over the bare ground between your fading snow pack and the more permanent one further north. 

Second good sign is that the weekend low will form out of the base of another Pacific low swerving north, so is not going to be subject to easy modelling for several days yet. Looking west, there is remnant snow cover from the last event to weaken warm air advection into the plains states. Every degree south we can find this low forming over OK-AR the better your chances. 

Third positive thought is that another potent arctic high is coming into play for the weekend storm and each model I looked at seems to respond a bit sluggishly to the possibility of cold air building up over PA-NJ into the mid-Atlantic region in advance of the storm. Old school, one would draw the arctic front quite a bit further south than the 0 C 850 isotherm which tells me that this weekend storm could be running into some well-entrenched colder air. 

Fourth good sign is the steady deepening trend for central pressure after the low reaches TN. A steadily deepening low will continue to pull in the cold air on the east side of the mountains until it reaches south-central VA. This should allow some early portion of the precip to be snow. If we can find (I don't like to say get because that's a bogus process) -- if we can find this low just edging south of the model tracks, continuing to deepen nicely, then it could drop 8-12 inches of snow at least north of I-95. 

A lot of things have to go right. But then they all did last weekend.