Roger Smith

Good, I won't need to look at the old penalty time clock in this ultimate month of the contest ... snowfall contests duly noted here or over there in NOV, will get a table together for those soon. 

Could see some wild swings in temperature this month, I feel, generally mild but a few very cold days. 

+2.7 _ +2.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +1.2 _ +2.8 _ +7.9 _ +3.5 _ +2.4

Good luck (I think the big battle is for second looking at these forecasts, nobody has enough differential on RodneyS to come anywhere near scoring 400 extra points which is what would be needed). 

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Nov) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > >

Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. 

Posting this slightly ahead of final values which won't change much ... so December forecasters can see where they stand. Good luck !

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

RodneyS ___________________728_ 746_ 838 __2312 __646 _660_742__2088 __4400 __724_715_768_ 2207 ____6607

Don Sutherland.1 ___________688 _756_798 __2242 __597 _654 _756 __2007 __4249 __526_764_716_ 2006 ____6255

RJay _______________________726 _749 _737 __2212 __592 _672 _709 __1973 __4185 __636_700_718_ 2054 ____6239

hudsonvalley21 ____________623 _712 _813 __2148 __543 _636 _783 __1962 __4110 __585_772_751_ 2108 ____6218

___ Consensus _____________630 _686 _821 __2137 __521 _648_788 __1957 __4094 __572_747_754_ 2073 ____ 6167

BKViking __________________ 623 _687 _786 __1996 __549 _593 _753__1895 __3891 __621_772_806_ 2199 ____ 6090

wxallannj __________________662 _756 _813 __2231 __471 _647 _768__1886 __4117 __568_691_698_ 1957 ____6074

Tom _______________________627 _670 _779 __2076 __478 _681 _740__1899 __3975 __559_732_699_ 1990 ____5965

Scotty Lightning ____________540 _530 _658 __1728 __454 _649_822__1925 __3653 __506_670_734_ 1910 ____ 5563

Roger Smith ________________564 _605 _704 __1873__559 _709 _736__2004 __3877 __ 558_522_530_ 1610 ____5487

wxdude64 __________________523 _561 _666 __1750__451 _560 _766__1777 __3527 __ 528_697_630_ 1855 ____5382

___ Normal _________________414 _432 _564 __1410 __382 _571 _662__1615 __3025 __448_522_ 694_ 1664 ____4689

Brian5671 _ (8/11) _________ 494 _502 _526 __1522 __323 _485 _545__1353 __2875 __318_478_542_ 1438 ____ 4313

JakkelWx _ (7/11) __________ 380 _395 _514 __1289__370 _405 _532__1317 __2606 __390 _422 _330_ 1142 ____3748

yoda _ (4/11) _______________192 _ 227 _200 __ 619 __152_250 _311 __ 713 ___1332 __209 _347_210 __ 766_____2098

rclab _ (1/11) ________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 ___ 035 ____ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250

dwave _ (1/11) ______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 ___ 047 ____ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292

Maxim _ (1/11) ______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 ___ 066 ____ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182

Final scoring for November 2020

-- based on the final values posted above (tracker post), these are the scores for Nov 2020.

* Tom's small late penalties are shown with asterisks per point lost, mostly 1 pt, one instance of 2 pts.

-- no minimum progression invoked for low scoring locations as one raw score always above 60.

-- a reminder, when actuals are > 5.0 anom, scoring differentials drop to 1 point so for ORD at +7.1 scores

for forecasts 0.0 to 2.1 get same number of points as forecast units of 0.1, then two points from 2.1 to 5.0, 

had any forecasts been 5.1 to 7.1 those would have lost scoring points at 1 per 0.1 also. (but none were).

-- DEN and NYC have finished just slightly into the 5+ range, ATL was +4.9 and DCA +4.7 (see previous post

for the final anomalies). 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA_west _ TOTALS

Roger Smith ____________ 96 _ 84 _ 84 __264 __ 73 _ 86 _ 86 __ 245 __ 511 __ 00 _ 16 _ 52 __ 068 _____ 579

BKViking _______________ 54 _ 44 _ 80 __ 178 __ 06 _ 44 _ 56 __ 106 __ 284 __  40 _ 60 _ 94 __ 194 _____ 478

RJay ____________________46 _ 38 _ 76 __ 160 __ 20 _ 22 _ 26 __ 068 __ 228 __ 36 _ 66 _ 78 __ 180 _____ 408

Don Sutherland.1________26 _ 20 _ 56 __ 102 __ 13 _ 10 _ 40 __ 063 __ 165 __ 68 _ 96 _ 76 __ 240 _____ 405

wxallannj _______________ 46 _ 48 _ 70 __ 164 __ 14 _ 28 _ 34 __ 076 __ 240 __ 20 _ 46 _ 66 __ 132 _____ 372

hudsonvalley21 _________22 _ 18 _ 52 __ 092 __ 04 _ 16 _ 50 __ 070 __ 162 __ 28 _ 70 _ 92 __ 190 _____ 352

Consensus ______________32 _ 22 _ 56 __ 110 __ 10 _ 26 _ 44 __ 080 __ 190 __ 14 _ 48 _ 94 __ 156 _____ 346

RodneyS _______________ 20 _ 04 _ 48 __ 072 __ 29 _ 42 _ 44 __ 115 __ 187 __ 03 _ 46 _ 96 __ 145 _____ 332

Tom ____ (-2%) _________ 35*_ 22 _ 55*__112 __ 00 _ 33*_ 43*__076 __ 188 __ 06 _ 47*_90**_ 143 _____ 331

Scotty Lightning ________ 26 _ 08 _ 46 __ 080 __ 05 _ 22 _ 56 __ 083 __ 163 __ 00 _ 46 _ 82 __ 128 _____ 291

wxdude64 ______________14 _ 10 _ 54 __ 080 __ 02 _ 12 _ 42 __ 056 __ 136 __ 00 _ 42 _ 90 __ 132 _____ 268

Normal _________________06 _ 00 _ 36 __ 042 __ 00 _ 02 _ 26 __ 028 __ 070 __ 00 _ 26 _ 82 __ 108 _____ 178

_______________________________________________________________

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

All but SEA have the warmest forecast in play, and all are outright wins.

DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL and IAH will be heading to Roger Smith for 6 wins, BOS was close but the last minute warm sector

pushed the outcome to +3.2. Most of these outcomes other than BOS were higher than the high forecast by a degree or so.

DEN and PHX are going to Don Sutherland with high forecasts there, outcomes also a bit higher than forecasts.

SEA went to the fourth highest forecast for high score, so is the only non-qualifier this month. 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Will post the annual update after these scores confirmed, but apparently the race has tightened up considerably -- almost everyone in the hunt gained a bit on the contest leader RodneyS. My previous total was too far back for this month to bring me into that mix (had the west worked out as well as the east, different story). But at least I am leaving Normal in my dust. 

However, the annual scoring update shows that the big contest now is for second place. A review of the December entries shows that RodneyS has an insurmountable lead as the forecasts he filed for December are relatively close to those of his nearest competitors, scoring differentials are not close to providing any potential for the field to pass RodneyS so congrats in advance. About six people are in contention to finish second and the forecast differentials are large enough to make the outcome suspenseful. 

Predict the temperature anomalies in deg F for these nine locations (relative to 1981-2010) ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

... and check last month if you haven't already entered the winter snowfall contest (closes with this deadline). 

That looks generally similar to winter 1975-76. I recall that one producing about two weeks of intense cold in the Great Lakes region (mid to late Jan) and record warmth by end of February. There was quite a long stretch of heavy mixed precip at the start of March (in southern/central ON at least, probably also in the Midwest U.S.). 

My thoughts for the winter are fairly similar by the way. I think it will be more about week to week variability than long-term trends, with the warming more pronounced towards end of February. Some part of January could be a brief east coast wintry spell but I can't see it dominating south of the lower Great Lakes.

Great Lakes water temps must be well above average given the very warm November, similar to 1975. Then there was a spell of extremely heavy lake effect snow in Dec 1975 and Jan 1976, London ON had a state of emergency from huge snowdrifts created during this period. 

Good luck with this. 

One half-decent storm and two thirds of the field are eliminated. I'll take those odds. Otherwise would this be three bad winters in a row? Seems harsh. 

Iota now a hurricane and forecast to become a major soon, if so, the count will reach 30/13/6 (currently 30/13/5). For 30/13/6 these are the scores using the contest method and the beta method developed to give a more balanced comparison in this rather unusual season with its numerous weak tropical storms earlier inflating the count ratio. 

Updated scoring summary for 30/13/6 (30/13/5 in brackets)

FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points

Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 820 _____ 11 (10)

WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 921 _____ 02 (03)

(all others drop below 00)

=================================================================

A more comparable scoring system that responds to the problem of so many weak tropical storms in the count is shown below.

This one weights the number of storms at 40% but errors are more linear (average of difference, difference, and half of diff squared).

The weighting for hurricanes and majors is 30% each and the scoring for those is done the same way as above 

Results are similar for rank ordering but perhaps capture the skill of the various forecasts a bit better ...

Points for 30/13/6  

FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points

Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 8 2 0 _____ 81 

WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 9 2 1 _____ 76.5 

Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 ____10 0 1 _____ 75.7 

NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 ____10 1 2 _____ 72.7 

Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 ____10 2 1 _____ 72.7 

Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 ____11 1 1 _____ 70.5 

NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 ____10 3 1 _____ 69.7 

Rhino16 _________________________ 18 _14 _5 ____12 1 1 _____ 66 

Rtd208 __________________________ 18 _12 _7 ___ 12 1 1 _____ 66 

Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 ____11 3 1 _____ 65.5 

___ Consensus (means) ________ 18.5_10.3_4.9 __11.5, 2.7, 1.1 __ 63.8 

BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 ____11 4 1 _____ 61.5 

NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 ___ 11 4 2 _____ 59.5 

Newman _________________________18 _10 _4___ 12 3 2 _____ 59 

JakkelWx ________________________ 17 _10 _6___ 13 3 0 _____ 57.2 

Yoda _____________________________18 _ 8 _ 4___ 12 5 2 _____ 50 

Alfoman _________________________ 17 _ 9 _ 5___ 13 4 1 _____ 52.2 

Jaxjagman ______________________ 16 _ 9 _ 5____14 4 1 _____ 47 

NHC (mid-range) _________________16 _ 8 _ 4.5__14 5 1.5 ___ 41.3 

CSU _____________________________ 16 _ 8 _ 4____14 5 2 _____ 40 

Olafminesaw ____________________ 15 _ 8 _ 4 ___ 15 5 2 _____ 34.5 

Crownweather ___________________ 15 _ 8 _ 3____15 5 3 _____ 31.5 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

True, I will update once Iota actually does the deal on hurricane and major. If this happens, I will be tied with several others for the least error stats (0,1 or 1,0) on hurricanes and majors, but the extra TS has sunk me out of any score at all in the contest scoring method (a), will maybe move up slightly in the order of beta scoring effort as will a couple of others. 

First look at anomalies and projections ...

____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

11th ____ (anom 10d) ______ +4.0 _ +6.3 _ +4.5 __+12.9 _+4.5 _ +2.2 __ +10.5 _ +4.0 __ 0.0 

21st ____ (anom 20d) ______ +3.7 _ +3.8 _ +2.9 __ +7.9 _ +4.4 _ +3.5 ___ +7.9 _ +4.0 _ +0.7

11th ____ (anom 20d) ______ +3.0 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 ___ +7.0 _+3.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ --1.0 

11th ____ (anom 30d) ______ +2.5 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 ___ +5.0 _+3.5 _ +2.0 ___ +3.5 _ +2.0 _ --1.0 

21st ____ (anom 30d) ______ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 ___ +5.0 _+3.5 _ +3.5 ___ +5.0 _ +3.0 __ 0.0

29th ____ (anom 30d) ______ +4.5 _ +5.0 _ +3.0 ___ +7.0 _ +5.0 _ +4.0 ___ +5.5 _ +4.0 _ +1.0

_____ final anomalies _______+4.7 _ +5.2 _ +3.2 ___ +7.1 _ +4.9 _ +3.7 ___ +5.4 _+3.7 _ +0.9

================================================

This month I plan to update only around the 20th and end of month anomalies. 

As of the 11th, the month had started out quite warm in the west and changed to colder than normal a few days ago. The record-breaking warmth then spread into the central and eastern states. Anomalies were largest in the Great Lakes region (STL not in our contest had an anomaly of +8). Projections are based on a much less pronounced warmer than average middle third and a slightly warmer final third for most regions. There will be anomalous cold at times in the upper Midwest, plains states and interior Pac NW, but it will be shallow and its intrusions further south will be moderated quickly. 

Next update 21st. ... Those who would still like to join the winter snowfall contest can post or edit up to then, with reminders going out to no-shows, then a table of forecasts will mark end of entries. 

21st _ Looking quite mild across the southeast, Gulf coast, more variable further north to end of month. Some decrease likely in most of the current large positive anomalies. 

29th _ Have edited in the new projections as of today. These include CFS to 28th and climate data for 29th, model projections for 30th. Provisional scoring will follow shortly. 

1st Dec _ Editing in the final anomalies as they appear, and updating the scoring tables already posted (scores now final as of 1030h EST).

I have updated the two scoring tables for Theta's addition to the never-ending total (29/12/5 now).

With Iota forming, count is 30/12/5 and could be 30/13/6 if it does become a major hurricane. Will update the scoring later in the life cycle of Iota but can say that anyone at 20 named storms now drops to zero in the contest scoring (a) version, the average change to the beta scoring is -3 or -4 with each new named storm although if you have hurricanes or majors left to "give" your score could stay level. 

My main disagreement would be early in the winter for interior western regions, I suspect it will turn out a lot colder than shown. That would only have the effect of shifting your depicted warm core a bit further east to the mid-Atlantic states possibly (with more of an up and down regime in the central plains states). Otherwise I could certainly see the scenario of a relatively mild winter getting milder towards February. 

This may be one of those winters like 2015-16 with a lot of mild weather but one great winter storm anyway (for the east). 

BWI _ too far north to miss ... 27.5"

DCA _ too far east to miss ... 19.9"

IAD _ too far west to miss ... 26.8"

RIC _ too far south to miss ... 15.5"

SBY _ too far southeast to snow (10.5" not my tiebreaker)

LYH _ too far northwest to miss ... 30.1" (tiebreaker)

conclusion _ not too shabby middle of the pack winter ahead.

You are sitting on a perfect forecast of hurricanes and majors, which is no small accomplishment. If we had ended up 24/12/5 then your score in the conventional method would be 35/50 and the leaders would have had 45 and 43. About four or five of these 28 named storms were very short-lived and marginal (in my opinion), so really your forecast in the real world was quite good. In this slightly bizarro world, we are all left to fend for ourselves. 

Table of forecasts for Nov 2020

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Roger Smith ____________ +4.5 _ +4.3 _ +4.0 ___ +4.7 _ +4.2 _ +3.0 ___ --2.0 _ --0.5 _ --1.5

BKViking _______________ +2.4 _ +2.3 _ +2.2 ___ +0.6 _ +2.1 _ +1.5 ___ +2.2 _ +1.7 _ +0.6

wxallannj _______________ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.7 ___ +1.4 _ +1.3 _ +0.4 ___ +1.2 _ +1.0 _ --0.8

RJay ____________________+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0

Tom ____ (-2%) __________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ --0.2 _ +1.6 _ +0.9 ___ +0.5 _ +1.1 _ +0.5

Consensus ______________+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +0.9 ___ +0.9 _ +1.1 _ +0.6

Don Sutherland.1________+1.0 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 ___ +1.3 _ +0.4 _ +0.7 ___ +3.6 _ +3.5 _ +2.1

Scotty Lightning ________ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

hudsonvalley21 _________+0.8 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 ___ +0.4 _ +0.7 _+1.2 ___ +1.6 _ +2.2 _ +1.3

RodneyS _______________ +0.7 _ +0.3 _ +0.6 ___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.9 ___ +0.3 _ +1.0 _ +1.1

wxdude64 ______________ +0.4 _ +0.7 _ +0.9 ___ +0.2 _ +0.5 _ +0.8 ___ --0.2 _ +0.8 _ +0.4

Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

______________________________________________________________________

warmest forecasts in red, coldest in blue ... Normal is colder for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL and (tied) IAH.

snowfall forecasts can be added to your post or submitted separately, up to mid-month, will signal a deadline. 

Updated scoring summary for 29/12/5 _ table has been updated in more recent post

FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points

Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 711 _____ 20

WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 810 _____ 13

NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 _____ 901 _____ 04

Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 _____ 910 _____ 04

NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 _____ 920 _____ 02

Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 _____ 912 _____ 01

Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 _____1000_____ 00

Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 _____1020_____ 00

NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 _____ 1031 _____00

BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 _____ 1030 _____00

(all others drop further below 00)

=================================================================

A more comparable scoring system that responds to the problem of so many weak tropical storms in the count is shown below.

This one weights the number of storms at 40% but errors are more linear (average of difference, difference, and half of diff squared).

The weighting for hurricanes and majors is 30% each and the scoring for those is done the same way as above 

Results are similar for rank ordering but perhaps capture the skill of the various forecasts a bit better ...

FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points

Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 711 _____ 85

WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 810 _____ 83

NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 _____ 901 _____ 80

Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 _____ 910 _____ 80

NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 _____ 920 _____ 78

Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 _____ 912 _____ 77

Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 _____1000 _____ 76

Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 _____1020 _____ 76

___ Consensus (means) ________ 18.5_10.3_4.9 __10.5, 1.7, 0.1 __ 75.0

BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 _____1030 _____ 71

Rhino16 _________________________ 18 _14 _ 5 ____1120 _____ 70

Rtd208 __________________________ 18 _12 _ 7 ____1102 _____ 70

NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 _____1031 _____ 70

Newman _________________________18 _10 _ 4 ____1121 _____ 70

JakkelWx ________________________ 17 _10 _ 6 ____1221 _____ 64

Yoda _____________________________18 _ 8 _ 4 ____ 1141 _____ 63

Alfoman _________________________ 17 _ 9 _ 5 _____1230 _____62

Jaxjagman ______________________ 16 _ 9 _ 5 _____1330 _____ 62

NHC (mid-range) _________________16 _ 8 _ 4.5 ___13 4 0.5 __ 54.5

CSU _____________________________ 16 _ 8 _ 4 _____1341 _____ 54

Olafminesaw ____________________ 15 _ 8 _ 4 _____1441 _____ 47

Crownweather ___________________ 15 _ 8 _ 3 _____1442 _____ 45

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Folks, give yourselves a pat on the back, as a group and in almost all cases, we came out ahead of the experts (I know, some of you are qualified experts).

Given that the "real" count is maybe 24,12,5 with a bit of an atmosphere of find every possible marginal contender, I think the above scoring system is probably a better fit to the real differences between forecasts and the "reality" we now have (don't get me wrong, we would be into the Greek alphabet even with a very strict set of rules to eliminate the marginals, and that is still a very solid 2nd to 2005 which maybe could have had one or two more under similar counting procedures? ... matter of opinion to be certain). 

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Oct) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > >

Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

RodneyS ___________________708_ 742_ 790 __2240 __615 _614_698__1967 __4207 __720_669_672_ 2061 ____6268

hudsonvalley21 ____________601 _694 _761 __2056 __540 _616 _733 __1889 __3945 __557_702_659_ 1918 ____5863

Don Sutherland.1 ___________662 _736_742 __2140 __585 _640 _716 __1941 __4081 __458_668_640_ 1766 ____5847

RJay _______________________680 _711 _661 __2052 __573 _646 _683 __1902 __3954 __600_634_640_ 1874 ____5828

___ Consensus _____________598 _664 _765 __2027 __512 _618_744 __1874 __3901 __558_699_660_ 1917 ____ 5818

BKViking __________________ 569 _643 _706 __1918 __544 _545 _697__1786 __3704 __581_712_712_ 2005 ____ 5709

wxallannj __________________616 _708 _743 __2067 __458 _615 _734__1807 __3874 __548_645_632_ 1825 ____5699

Tom _______________________ 592 _648 _724 __1964__478 _644 _697__1819 __3783 __553_685_609_ 1847 ____5630

Scotty Lightning ____________514 _522 _612 __1648 __450 _623_766__1839 __3487 __506_624_652_ 1782 ____ 5269

wxdude64 __________________509 _549 _612 __1670__450 _544 _724__1718 __3388 __ 528_655_540_ 1723 ____5111

Roger Smith ________________468 _521 _620 __1609__486 _619 _650__1755 __3364 __ 558_506_478_ 1542 ____4906

___ Normal _________________408 _432 _528 __1368 __382 _565 _636__1583 __2951 __448_496_ 612_ 1556 ____4507

Brian5671 _ (8/10) _________ 494 _502 _526 __1522 __323 _485 _545__1353 __2875 __318_478_542_ 1438 ____ 4313

JakkelWx _ (7/10) __________ 380 _395 _514 __1289__370 _405 _532__1317 __2606 __390 _422 _330_ 1142 ____3748

yoda _ (4/10) _______________192 _ 227 _200 __ 619 __152_250 _311 __ 713 ___1332 __209 _347_210 __ 766_____2098

rclab _ (1/10) ________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 ___ 035 ____ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250

dwave _ (1/10) ______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 ___ 047 ____ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292

Maxim _ (1/10) ______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 ___ 066 ____ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182

Will ask a moderator if those posts (above) perhaps should be moved to the more appropriate 2020 season discussion.

Our count is now 28/12/5 (Eta has become a major now), and I suspect could change to 28/11/6 if Zeta is upgraded to major status before landfall (in the balance of time remaining this year, the contest will be scored from the official numbers at end of December).

I will wait until Eta is done to change the scoring (edit, can now update as Eta has hit major). And I will work out a scoring system that will maintain the order at the top but give the lower scoring entries a chance to receive a fair scoring, the huge number of marginal storms this season has made the outcome somewhat disproportionate to effort, I think, and quite a few of the forecasts were actually quite good despite low scoring by the method in place.

Perhaps a system that scores storm number by only error (not mean of error + error squared) and the already sanctioned method for hurricanes and majors will yield a result that will give us all a better picture, would get it to add up to 100 to make it more user-friendly.

+4.5 _ +4.3 _ +4.0 ___ +4.7 _ +4.2 _ +3.0 ___ --2.0 _ --0.5 _ --1.5

14.5" _28.2"_60.5" ___35.5" _39.9"_80.5" __ 55.5" _ 90.5"_ 12.5"

(DTW BUF BTV for ATL IAH PHX snow)

Final scoring for October 2020

Scoring is based on final anomalies as shown in the previous post. 

* one point deducted for late penalty (BKV)

high scores in bold, ^ will count as second high score(s) where Yoda has high score (for comparison of regular entrants).

ATL is set to "max 60" scoring as high raw score was 58. Given the number of ties and differentials, the scoring levels were 60, 50 (3), 40, 35, 30, 25, 20 (2), 10. 

FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent _ c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA_west __ TOTALS

Yoda _____________________ 80 _ 96 _100 _ 276 __ 58 _ 60 _ 88 _ 206 __ 482 __ 38 _ 94 _ 76 _ 208 _____ 690

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 64 _ 96 _ 94 _ 254 __ 74 _ 40 _ 94 _ 208 __ 462 __ 40 _ 62 _ 96 _ 198 _____ 660^

___ Consensus ____________66 _ 92 _ 94 _ 252 __ 68 _ 35 _ 94 _ 197 __ 442 __ 38 _ 66 _ 96 _ 200 _____ 644

wxallannj _________________ 66 _ 92 _ 94 _ 252 __ 64 _ 50^_ 80 _ 194 __ 446 __ 50 _ 46 _ 86 _ 182 _____ 628

Tom ______________________ 54 _ 76 _ 84 _ 214 __ 92 _ 20 _ 98 _ 210 __ 424 __ 46 _ 66 _ 92 _ 204^_____628

RJay ______________________92 _ 80 _ 84 _ 256 __ 60 _ 50^_ 96 _ 206 __ 462 __ 18 _ 86 _ 60 _ 164 _____ 626 

BKViking _____ (-1%) ______ 71*_ 91*_ 83*_245__ 67*_ 25 _ 87*_179 __ 424 __ 34 _75*_93*_ 202 _____ 626

Scotty Lightning ___________72 _ 90 _ 86 _ 248 __ 80 _ 50^_ 74 _ 204 __452 __ 68 _ 36 _ 70 _ 174 _____ 626 

RodneyS __________________56 _ 88 _ 94 _ 238 __ 62 _ 35 _ 90 _ 187 __ 425 __ 42 _ 56 _100 _ 198 _____ 623

DonSutherland1 __________ 82 _100_ 98^_ 280 __ 70 _ 30 _ 94 _ 194 __ 474^__ 08 _ 90^_ 44 _ 142 _____ 616 

Normal ____________________52 _ 80 _ 86 _ 218 __ 80 _ 35 _ 96 _ 211 __ 429 __ 78 _ 16 _ 70 _ 164 _____ 593

wxdude64 ________________ 46 _ 68 _ 76 _ 190 __ 88 _ 10 _ 84 _ 182 __ 372 __ 30 _ 52 _ 94 _ 176 _____ 548

Roger Smith ______________ 22 _ 40 _ 42 _ 104 __ 90 _ 20 _ 96 _ 206 __ 310 __ 18 _ 86 _ 80 _ 184 _____ 494

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EXTREME FORECAST REPORT 

Highest forecasts were extreme forecast winners for DCA (RJay), ATL (Yoda, and within regular forecasters wxallannj, Scotty Lightning, RJay), while for PHX highest forecast may be a loss with Yoda taking a win for second highest forecast getting high score. (based on estimate, if the final value is 4.3 or higher, it's a win for Don instead). Lowest forecast was a win for Scotty L at DEN (oddball result with extreme cold for a few days overwhelming warmth most of the days). Normal also picks up a win for DEN (we all went positive, DEN will end up around -1.0). For ORD, lowest forecast was a loss for Roger Smith (-1.5, 90 pts) and a win for second coldest (Tom, -0.6, 92 pts) as ORD finished at -1.0. 

NYC, BOS, IAH and SEA all are trending to high scores closer to consensus than extremes. 

-- will post the annual update soon after these scores are finalized on Nov 1st, but with most of you scoring in a similar range, there won't be a lot of movement in the tables, congrats to Yoda for high score (subject to slight adjustments to come) and hudsonvalley21. 

I want to see Mu and Nu doing the Fujiwara. 

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2020 normal values for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

and add your snowfall predictions for the usual nine locations we use

(for ATL, IAH and PHX we substitute DTW, BUF and BTV). 

The snowfall predictions can be added any time during November, I will start to message people around mid-month to get them all in.

Good luck. 

The count is now 27/11/4. Scoring for that outcome is shown in the previous post. 

I am expecting a rather broken up winter temperature regime with spells of very mild and very cold, some tendency towards a colder second half of winter relative to normal in eastern and central states, and the opposite for western  interior regions. Some powerful storms seem very likely given that energy peaks are going to be unusually concentrated. It should be the sort of winter when it would be bad luck for any region to escape a major winter event at some point. It could be a very active lake effect snow season. 

First look at anomalies and projections ...

_______________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_ (9th) _______ (8d anom) ______--0.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.7 ___ --1.7 _ --0.7 _ --1.8 ___ +6.4 _ +7.4 _ +4.5

_ (16th) _____ (15d anom) _____ +1.1 _ +1.3 _ +2.0 ___ +2.6 _ +2.8 _ +2.0 ___ +6.2 _ +6.6 _ +3.8

_ (25th) _____ (24d anom) _____ +3.0 _ +2.4 _ +2.7 ___ +1.1 _ +3.5 _ +2.5 ___ +2.0 _ +6.5 _ +2.2

_ (9th) ______ (p15d anom) ____ --0.5 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 ___ --0.8 _ --0.5 _ --1.0 ___ +5.0 _ +6.0 _ +2.5

_ (16th) _____ (p22d anom) ____ --0.2 _ +0.2 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +5.5 _ +6.0 _ +3.0

_ (9th) ______ (p25d anom) ____ --1.5 _ --1.0 __ 0.0 ___ --2.5 _ --1.5 _ --0.5 ___ +5.0 _ +5.5 _ +3.0

_ (16th) _____ (p31d anom) ____ --1.5 _ --1.0 __ 0.0 ___ --2.0 _ --1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +4.5 _ +5.0 _ +2.0

_ (25th) _____ (p31d anom) ____ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ___ --0.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ --1.0* _ +5.0 _ +2.0

_ (31st) ____ final values _______ +2.4 _ +1.0 _ +0.7 ___ --1.0 _ +4.0 _ +0.2 ___ --1.1 _ +4.2 _ +1.5

_______________________________________

9th _ First week was rather cool in the east although warming briefly 7th-8th. The west has been very warm (even where I live, in the 70s every day so far).

... Next week looks fairly similar, but after 15th GFS shows very cold air making an appearance over the Midwest and filtering into the northeast. Looks cold enough for lake effect snow at times, flurries in mountains of eastern states. Thus the 16d projections fall to below normal in eastern and central regions, staying quite warm in the west. 

16th _ Second week continued near normal in the east, warm in the west. These trends will shift gradually to much below normal temperatures at times in the eastern and central states, staying fairly warm in the west although less marked in the Pac NW. 

25th _ The expected cooling trend was muted for the east and confined to central and western states instead. Although it now appears likely to turn rather cool at times, the anomalies will likely remain positive for the four locations in the eastern time zone and close to normal for ORD. ... IAH, DEN and SEA will likely have a few more cool days then rebound to above normal warmth, and PHX will stay well above normal after perhaps a day or two of unusually cool weather taking a bit of the edge off near-record warmth for another month. 

* 27th _ Had to revise DEN as they got into some extremely cold air for three days, coming out of that now but it has really knocked the anomaly way down. Revised from +2.0 to -1.0 and they will be fortunate to get back even that far having fallen below -1 now (running quite warm all month to 23rd, then this ... anyway, it is what it is and we're supposed to foresee it). 

1st _ Posting final values, scoring is now updated.  

On 9/30/2020 at 6:43 PM, nw baltimore wx said:

BWI: 81

DCA: 80

IAD: 79

RIC: 83

Hopefully you both see this and have the opportunity to edit.

 

Whatever happens now, you will be closer than the other two (and Weather53), the actuals were 81, 81, 83, 82 on 7th, in my own case I could win the contest within a contest if even warmer temperatures occur later. But in terms of the contest leadership tie-breaker, nw baltimore wx wins. Congrats.