Roger Smith

I suspect we will have a very active season with at least one major outbreak. 

Predicting 1520 tornados.

First max risk will be around April 9-10. 

For the first tie-breaker (let's face it, these never will be breaking any ties, but just add three more elements to the contest) ...

ORD managed the scanty total of 1.4" with a late surge out of deepest futility, and that came not that near even our lowest forecast, so the lower you went, the more ties you can break. 

Our best effort was 3.6" by vpBob21, then 4.1" from Mississauga Snow and 4.5" from Jackstraw. Our average was 7.9".

The amounts have been updated in the post dated Dec 17th (edited to Jan 1st). Not much snow was reported since the November snowfall event anywhere in the contest grid except for MQT, APN and GRB. 

Well I guess we will continue on then, as most of the regulars seem interested in the contest. I imagine RodneyS will be in later, he always likes to post near the deadline (which is this evening at 06z). Thanks for your comments above. 

Here's my shot in the dark ...

+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _ --0.3 _ --0.5 ___ +1.5 _ +0.5 _ +1.8

will post a table when I think all entries are in. 

This pattern reminds me a bit of 1991-92 for some reason, that was not a very exciting winter where I lived at the time (east-central Ontario). 

So does the Almanac make any bold predictions for Jan or Feb? 

If they went with a 2010 analogue, watch for increasing snowstorm risks in their forecasts after Jan 19th. Roughly on the 2010 schedule moved forward ten days. 

One of the more controversial (and difficult to test) aspects of the climate change theory is that of higher variability. We are informed that climate change will mean more severe storms, droughts, heat waves, and even snowstorms and cold spells in some versions that assign those outcomes to displacement of the polar vortex.

The problem with these assertions is that mainly anecdotal evidence is offered as proof (or disproof). 

I thought of a way to test more objectively for such outcomes, and I should add the disclaimer that I don't have much if any idea whether the claims would prove true, false or inconclusive. 

This method could be called the "forwards-backwards test" and it works like this: 

(a) name any climate extreme that you postulate may be exacerbated by climate change

(b) determine how many years back in time you have to go to find its worst known example (in recent times, let's say since 1800 and the onset of widespread atmospheric measurement)

(c) now if the event does not at least duplicate itself within that number of years going forward, the claim is false. If it duplicates in a shorter period, it is true (on this count at least). If there is a tie, then the matter is inconclusive. 

(d) to test the assertion relative to forest fires or wildfires, some concept of exposure to risk must be applied, clearly forest fires are having greater impacts but how much of that is due to larger numbers of human-forest interactions available due to changes in lifestyle? 

Here's one example of the test. If we are going to see "worse heat waves" in the future, then the 1936 heat wave would need to be outdone within 83 years (by 2102). If it isn't, that claim is false. 

If we are going to see "worse hurricanes" then I suppose the primary test would be central pressure, since damage is a rather quirky function of track, and death toll is a further function of track combined with effectiveness of warning. I wouldn't hold the theorists to having Galveston destroyed before 2138, but perhaps the central pressure of Gilbert (1988) or Wilma (2005) equalled or lowered before 2048 (2031).

For a "worse tornado outbreak" I would be looking for numbers of F4 or F5 tornado reports in one outbreak similar to either 1925 or 1974, before (in each case) 2111 or 2062.

For "worse snowstorms" I would be expecting to see heavier amounts than fell in Jan 1996 within 22 years, or Great Lakes blizzards of the calibre of Jan 1978 before 2058. 

Critics are going to argue that these tests are too specific and too difficult to verify precisely. But if we don't hold the theory to this sort of testing, then what sort of testing is appropriate? In its absence, we face the likely prospect of the political arm of the science just claiming verification after each notable weather event, whether it meets this test or not. And while this may alarm many people, it is not actually in the scientific tradition to claim verification from uncompared data. 

And the problem is that we probably don't have the luxury of waiting that long to assess the theory. I have to wonder, though, if there isn't something to be said for a competing theory that variations will become less intense due to climate change. Perhaps the greenhouse gases are also interfering with stability profiles in a way that, overall, induces less extreme weather. If that were the case, would we actually want to "fix" that "problem" or not? 

 

With no further activity in Nov-Dec, the contest is declared closed and the official results are shown in the edited table above (a few posts back). 

None of us managed to beat either the contest normal (87.5) or the mid-range of the NHC annual prediction (84.2), however, for that one, I assigned monthly values based on a pro-rating of the normal values. The same is true for contest winner "AfewUniversesbelownormal" (84.0) who only supplied a seasonal count (unlike all other entrants). As both UIWwildthing (83.5) and JBurns (83.0) had full entries and scored within 1.0 points of that arbitrary score, I am considering them to be joint contest winners also. Snowlover2, Blunder Storm, and NCForecaster89 also managed to beat our group consensus which finished in seventh place overall (lower ranks not affected by that placing). 

The best seasonal forecast (actual count was 15 8 2) came from NCForecaster89 who scored 48/50 for 15 7 3. JBurns scored 47 for 15 8 4. 

The best monthly total (maximum possible 50) was 39 for the assigned values of the winner "aFewUniversesBelowNormal" but in terms of actual forecasts made, 38.5 for JBurns and snowlover2. 

The season will likely be remembered mainly for Michael and Florence, rather than an impressive number of storms. 

 

Extreme Forecast report for Dec 2018 and updated annual standings

 

Seven of nine months qualified in December. 

DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL and SEA all ran warmer than all forecasts, so that high forecast for each was an extreme forecast winner. Those were Scotty Lightning for DCA, NYC, BOS and ATL, and wxallannj tied for DCA and winning ORD; Roger Smith took SEA.

DEN was equal to high forecast (Roger Smith).

IAH went to third highest forecast (Don S) which meant it did not qualify. PHX went to tied third lowest forecasts of Don S and Tom, with two considerably lower, so it also did not qualify.

That leaves the final standings in the extreme forecast contest within a contest as follows ...

 

Roger Smith _________19#-1 

Scotty Lightning (SD)___13-1

RodneyS _____________12-3

__ Normal ___________ 12-7

RJay ________________10-2

wxallannj _____________6-0

wxdude64 ____________ 6-4

DonSutherland1 ________5-1

hudsonvalley21 ________ 4-0

AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0

Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* 

so_whats_happening ___ 2-0

Stebo ________________ 2-1

Mercurial _____________ 1-0

NRG Jeff ______________1-0

BKViking ______________1-0

cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0

H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1

Tom _________________ 1-1

* no decision (Mar for IAH)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

# wins against regular field excluding "a few Univ b n" who entered two months.

# x 3 for Roger Smith, one for Orangeburgwx.

__________________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

RANKINGS for each location and region (total scores, 2018 contests)

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ cent ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ west ____ all nine

Scotty Lightning ______________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______ 5 ___ 6 ___ 4 ______4 ________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 4______ 1 ______ 1

wxallannj ___________________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 3 _______ 1 ___ 4 ___ 3 ______ 1 ________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 9 ______ 3 ______2

Roger Smith _________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ______ 1 _______4 ___ 2 ___13 ______8 ________ 9 ___11 ___ 1 _____ 10 _____ 3

DonSutherland.1 _____________ 4 ___ 7 ___ 6 ______ 6 _______ 7 ___ 1 ___ 6t _____ 3 ________ 8 ___ 5 ___ 5 ______ 6 ______ 4

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 8 ___ 5 ___ 7 ______ 7 ______ 10 ___ 3 ___ 1 ______ 2 ________ 5 ___ 8 ___ 3 ______ 5 ______ 5

BKViking ____________________7 ___ 4 ___ 4 ______ 4 _______ 6 ___11t __ 2 ______ 7 ________10 ___3 ___ 2 ______ 4 ______ 6

RodneyS ____________________9 ___ 9 __ 11 ______ 9 _______ 2 ___ 7 ___ 6t _____ 5 ________ 1 ___ 7 ___ 7 ______ 2 ______ 7

Tom ________________________6 ___ 6 ___ 5 ______ 5 _______9 ___ 5 ___11 _____10 ________ 3 ___ 4 ___10 ______ 7 ______8

RJay _______________________10___11 ___ 8 _____ 10 ______ 13 ___ 8 ___10 _____12 ________ 6 ___ 9 ___ 6 ______ 8 ______9

wxdude64 ___________________5 ___ 8 ___ 9 ______ 8 _______ 8 ___ 13 ___ 9 _____11 ________11___12 __ 11 _____ 11 _____10

dmillz25 ____________________13 ___13 __ 13 _____ 13 ______11 ___ 10 ___ 5 _____ 9 ________ 7 ___ 6 ___ 8 ______ 9 _____ 11

Stebo ______________________11 ___10 __ 10 _____ 11 _______ 3 ___ 9 ___ 8 ______6 ________12 ___10 __13 ______12 _____12

jaxjagman _ (-2 mo) __________12 ___12 __ 12 _____ 12 ______ 12 ___11t __12 ____ 13 ________13 ___13 __ 12 _____ 13 _____13

________________________________________________________________________________________________

(it should be noted that jaxjagman was in the range of 4th to 6th after ten months before dropping out).

Thanks for entering the contests in 2018, hope you enjoyed the challenge, and that these rankings will help you focus in on where you can improve (in my case, pretty obvious).

--- -- <<<<==== Updated Annual Scoring Jan - Dec 2018 ====>>>> -- ----

---- --- <<< ===-- -- -- Final Results for 2018 -- -- --===>>> --- ----

 

  Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) 

... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red)

... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals.

... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown.

... best scores marked * include one for regular forecasters in contest in May excluding higher scores of AFewUniversesbelowNormal.

... best scores marked ^ include one for regular forecasters in January excluding high scores of Mercurial.

... ... but H2O (one ATL Jan) was tied already so no high score added (dmillz25 had same score marked as high score already).

... in the western contest, Cerakoter1984 had high score for PHX in April, regular forecaster RodneyS adds one there (marked #)

... same for NRGJeff's high score PHX in January (Rodney S adds another, so the # denotes 2 added)

... note the cut-off for this will be three months entered, meaning H20_Town_WX, mappy, Orangeburgwx retain sole possession of their high scores. 

 

 FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS __ east ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

wxallannj __________ 700 _707 _751 ____2158 ____ 644 _642 _756 ____2042 ___ 4200 __ 001 201 .0.2 

Roger Smith ________777 _770 _753 ___ 2300 ____ 606 _662 _614 ____1882 ___ 4182 __3*4*2 14*1 .3.1 __ MAY

Scotty Lightning  ____ 687 _761 _730 ___ 2178 ____ 603 _628 _749 ____1980 ___ 4158 __3^44 213 .5^.1_JAN^ OCT NOV DEC

DonSutherland.1 ____ 684 _661 _658 ____2003 ____ 544 _716 _740 ____2000 ___ 4003 ___ 000 222 .0.2 

hudsonvalley21 _____ 635 _669 _650 ____1954 ____ 513 _647 _852 ___ 2012 ___ 3966 ___ 110 001 .0.0

BKViking ___________656 _696 _688 ____2040 ____ 554 _575 _771 ____1900 ___ 3940 ___ 001 000 .0.1

 

___Consensus ______ 657 _662 _670 ____1989 ____ 584 _611 _748 ____1943 ___ 3932 ___ 000 100 .0.0

 

RodneyS ___________617 _640 _614 ____1871 ____ 624 _619 _740 ____1983 ___ 3854 ___ 210 212 .0.5 _ MAR, JUL, SEP

Tom ______________ 664 _664 _677 ____2005 ____ 531 _633 _658 ____1822 ___ 3827 ___ 101 000 .0.0 _ JUN

Stebo _____________ 597 _634 _615 ____1846 ____ 623 _594 _733 ____1950 ___ 3796 ___ 020 112 .0.1

wxdude64 _________ 668 _647 _616 ____1931 ____ 540 _572 _691 ____1803 ___ 3734 ___34^0 002 .2.1

 

___Normal _________593 _676 _652 ____1921 ____ 580 _565 _629 ____1774 ___ 3695 ___ 112 222 .1.1__JAN^ NOV

 

RJay ______________616 _605 _634 ____1855 ____ 493 _618 _690 ____1801 ___ 3656 ___ 123 011 .3.2 _ APR, AUG

dmillz25 ___________568 _546 _523 ____1637 ____ 503 _592 _745 ____1840 ___ 3477 ___ 000 011 .0.0

 

jaxjagman (-2 mo) __ 582 _587 _581 ____1750 ____ 498 _575 _645 ____1718 ___ 3468 ___ 001 000 .0.1

so_whats_happening*_327 _375_398 ____1100 ____ 360 _423 _400 ____1183 ___ 2283 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB

mappy (5/12) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0

Orangeburgwx_(5/12) _179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0

afewUniverses bn (2) _ 114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0

Mercurial (2/12) _____ 146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN

H2O_Town_WX (3/12)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0

H2O ___(2/12) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0

nrgJeff _ (2/12) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___

buckeyefan (1 mo J) __ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___

Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_ 060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ 

tnweathernut(1 mo J) _ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___

IntenseBlizzard2014 (D)  16 _030 _034 ____ 080 ____ 035 _004 _066 ____ 105 ____ 185 ___

CPcantmeasuresnow __ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___

_________ (1 mo F) _^^

note: * so_whats_happening missed July, September, October, November, December

... A few Universes below Normal (2/12) played May and July.

all others shown (2/12) missed March to December, Orangeburgwx (5/11) missed January, July to December

 ... mappy (5/12) missed June to December, and H2OTown_wx (3/12) missed April to December.

  

 Part Two: Western and All Nine contests

 ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals

 for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring ... see note before

first section for explanation of symbols beside best scores ...

 

 FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank)

Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 649 _ 836 _ 750 ____ 2235 __________1 1 2 __ Apr, Aug __ 6393 (= 1) __OCT, NOV

RodneyS_______________ 754 _ 780 _ 677 ____ 2211 __________ 2 4#2 __May, Oct__ 6065 (= 7)  MAR,APR,JUL

wxallannj ______________ 692 _ 820 _ 643 ____ 2155 __________ 2 1 1 __ Mar, Nov __6355 (= 2) __ DEC

BKViking _______________561 _ 817 _ 768 ____ 2146 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 6086 (= 6) __ JUN

hudsonvalley21 _________ 641 _ 739 _ 755 _____2135 __________ 0 2 2 __ Jul ______ 6101 (= 5)

DonSutherland.1 ________ 594 _ 794 _ 745 _____2133 __________2^2 1 __ Jan _____ 6136 (= 4) _ JAN^

__ Consensus __________ 616 _ 802 _ 700 _____2118 __________ 0 1 0 ____________6050 (= 8)

Tom __________________ 664 _ 796 _ 628 _____2088 __________ 1 2 0 ____________5915 (= 8) 

RJay __________________638 _ 734 _ 708 _____2080 __________ 3 1 1 __ Sep ______5736 (= 9) __ SEP

dmillz25 _______________ 611 _ 788 _ 675 _____2074 __________ 0 1 0 _ Jun  ______ 5551 (=11)

Roger Smith ____________567 _ 688 _ 810 _____2065 __________ 3 0 3 _ Jan, Dec ___6247 (= 3) __ MAY

__Normal ______________628 _ 742 _ 650 _____2020 __________ 2 1 1 ____________ 5715 (=10) __ FEB

wxdude64 _____________ 552 _ 680 _ 613 _____1845 __________ 0 1 0 ____________ 5579 (=10) 

Stebo _________________ 474 _ 711 _ 426 _____1611 __________ 1 0 0 __ Nov _____ 5407 (=12)

jaxjagman __(-2 mo) ____ 427 _ 577 _ 582 _____1586 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 5054 (=13)

so_whats_happening* ____313 _ 445 _ 379 _____1137 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 3420 (=14) __ FEB

Orangeburgwx (5/12)_____251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb ______ 2090 (=15)

mappy (5/12) ___________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 1722 (=16)

H2OTown__WX (3/12) ___ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20)

afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1135 (=17)

Mercurial __ (2/12) ______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN

nrgJeff ____ _(2/12) _____ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21)

H2O ____ (2/12) ________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19)

Intense Blizzard 2014 (D) __042 _ 092 _ 046 _____ 180 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 365 (=25)

cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr) _ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22)

tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24)

buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23)

CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=26)

 __________________________________________________________________________________________________

  

Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - December _) _ Final results

 

REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL __ behind leader

 

New York City ____2445 ____ 2394____ 2569_____ 7408 ______0

Mid-Atlantic _______ 2391 ____ 2374 ____ 2333 _____ 7098 ____310

Philadelphia _______ 2527____ 2162 ____ 2331 _____ 7020 ____388

Central + Western __2454 ____ 2021 ____ 2111 _____ 6586 ____ 822

__ Consensus _____ 1989 ____ 1943 ____ 2118 _____ 6050 ____1358

__ Normal ________ 1921 _____1774 ____ 2020 _____ 5715 ___ 1693

Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1846 ____ 1950 ____ 1611 _____ 5407 ___ 1815

Tenn Valley (10/12) _1798 ____ 1718 ____ 1596 _____ 5112 ___ 2390

_______________________________________________________________________

Final scoring for December 2018

 

DCA and ORD are scored from rank order, max raw score below 60 rule. 

 

FORECASTER ________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

wxallannj ___________________ 60 _ 56 _ 56 __ 172 __ 60_ 58 _ 90 __ 208__ 380 __ 78 _ 74 _ 40 __ 192 ___ 572

Scotty Lightning ______________60 _ 78_ 68 __206 __ 45 _ 64_ 94 __ 203 __ 409 __ 40_ 86 _ 34 __ 160 ___ 569

DonSutherland.1 ______________45 _ 36 _ 28 __ 109 __ 40 _ 54 _100__ 194 __ 303 __ 56 _ 96_ 56 __ 208 ___ 511

hudsonvalley21 _______________50 _ 54 _ 44 __ 148 __ 20 _ 48 _ 84 __ 152 __ 300 __ 62 _ 70 _ 62 __ 194 ___ 494

RodneyS ____________________ 40 _ 48 _ 36 __ 124 __ 50 _ 24 _ 80 __ 154 __ 278__ 64 _ 86 _ 40 __ 190 ___ 468

___ Normal __________________40 _ 48 _ 48 __ 136 __ 43 _ 34 _ 76 __ 153 __ 289 __ 50 _ 94 _ 34 __ 178 ___ 467

 

Roger Smith _________________ 25 _ 22 _ 28 __ 075 __ 35 _ 08 _ 72 __ 115 __ 190 __100_ 66_ 90 __ 256 ___ 446

 

___ Consensus _______________ 30 _ 32 _ 32 __ 094 __ 35 _ 08 _ 72 __ 115 __ 209 __ 56 _ 86 _ 54 __ 196 ___ 405

 

BKViking ____________________ 35 _ 36 _ 32 __ 103 __ 16 _ 00 _ 72 __ 088 __ 191 __ 46 _ 88 _ 50 __ 174 ___ 375

RJay ________________________25 _ 28 _ 28 __ 081 __ 25 _ 14 _ 56 __ 095 __ 176 __ 70 _ 86 _ 54 __ 210 _ 386

__________ (-3%) ____________ 24 _ 27 _ 27 __ 078 __ 24 _ 14 _ 54 __ 092 __ 170 __ 68 _ 83 _ 52 __ 203 ___ 373

IntenseBlizzard2014 ___________ 16 _ 30 _ 34 __ 080 __ 35 _ 04 _ 66 __ 105 __ 185 __ 42 _ 92 _ 46 __ 180 ___ 365

Tom ________________________30 _ 32 _ 30 __ 092 __ 12 _ 04 _ 72 __ 088 __ 180 __ 38 _ 96 _ 50 __ 184 ___ 364

Stebo _______________________12 _ 18 _ 06 __ 036 __ 55 _ 00 _ 52 __ 107 __ 143 __ 30 _ 64 _ 58 __ 152 ___ 295

dmillz25 _____________________08 _ 00 _ 00 __ 008 __ 08 _ 00 _ 52 __ 060 __ 068 __ 70 _ 74 _ 64 __ 208 ___ 276

wxdude64 ___________________ 04 _ 00 _ 00 __ 004 __ 04 _ 06 _ 68 __ 078 __ 082 __ 08 _ 84 _ 72 __ 164 ___ 246

____________________________________________________

Provisional scoring for Regional Rumble, Dec 2018

 

Region ___________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ____ TOTAL

 

PHL ________________206 ______ 203 ______ 184 _____ 593

NYC _______________ 172 ______ 208 ______ 208 _____ 588

Mid-Atl _____________124 ______ 154 ______ 190 _____ 468

___ Normal _________ 136 ______ 153 ______ 178 _____ 467

C+W ______________ 075 ______ 115 ______ 256 _____ 446

___ Consensus ______ 094 ______ 115 ______ 196 _____ 405

GL/OV _____________ 036 ______ 107 ______ 152 _____ 295

_______________________________________________________________

 

I continue to believe that Jan 19-21 will be a turning point and after that, several more winter storm chances will appear. Got to remember that most of Jan 2010 was awful with the first snow of the series on 30th. 

you look a bit low on some of those ...the only edit you might need would be nine decimal places.

(I should have quoted those earlier numbers which were like +20 ... )

 

Hope you're enjoying the holidays ... will open up a contest thread for January 2019, and assess where things stand from the number of entries. I won't continue the Rumble unless there's a request from the participants to keep up that particular phase of the contest. As is customary at the new year, the deadline is extended into the month (06z Jan 3rd) and the late penalties will probably be smaller than usual if needed.

I mentioned in the December thread that it might be a good idea to have a discussion about the contest, despite trying a number of things to pump up interest, eventually the turnout has decreased back to the core of about a dozen active participants. If somebody wants to host this and see if a change of host would make any difference, I am in favor of trying that and as to scoring, that new person could score or let me post scores, either way if a new host can attract new participants, we would all be happy about it. But it may not be a case of needing a new host, perhaps people naturally drop out when they find they are not near the lead. It was somewhat puzzling that two well-positioned forecasters disappeared at a late stage, but for whatever reason we are near that critical point where the contest seems to be in danger of fading out, which would not be a good thing as it has been with the forum even back in its earlier "eastern" incarnation. 

So enough about that, the contest will be the usual challenge of predicting the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 "normals" for these nine locations:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(relaxed late penalties after deadline of 06z Jan 3, or end of the day Jan 2nd in all time zones). 

-- feel free to post any thoughts about the contest, or PM me if you prefer. 

The 2018 contest results will be posted during the period Jan 1-2, and it appears to be a very close finish in several of the contests, the results may come down to a few tenths of a degree difference at the final whistle. I have been updating the snowfall contest although that work is far from taxing.

Happy new year. 

 

Jan 18 to 21 most likely to deliver winter synoptics, patience advised. 

Sorry to intrude but I had this thought while posting on Mid-Atlantic discussion of this storm, looks to me like there could be a severe storm risk Friday afternoon in the NYC region as this system forms a fairly well-organized triple point moving NNE from Delaware up coastal NJ region into NYC or western LI and then western CT. Is this in the forecast? 

On the 1980 analogy, it wasn't really meant as a full winter analogue, I just remembered this similar heavy rain producing low without snow in the circulation, then that's what followed. 

I do think there could be some very mild weather at times this coming 2-3 weeks followed by a turn to much colder around mid-January. Some of the patterns in the other thread discussion that look like they might bring cold are just long wave shallow troughs collecting Pacific air masses and would remain above normal even if upper level flow is somewhat depressed. That west coast ridge needs to amplify or move further east and buckle to get cold air moving south again like it was in November. 

On the severe risk, my guess is that this system will race northeast overnight with a triple point forming near BWI to central Chesapeake Bay in the late overnight hours, there could be some brief TRW- activity and gusts to 45 mph, but the more potent severe risk is probably going to be later Friday as this triple point moves through extreme e/ne NJ, se NY and CT. As the high amplitude trough pinches and hangback low pressure tracks over the DC region later Friday, some hail showers may develop, temperatures are probably going to soar overnight to low-mid 60s then fall back gradually to around 50 mid-day Friday at which time convection will produce some local hail. Rain will turn to heavy wet snow over highest portions of the nearby mountains. 

There was a storm similar to this around Christmas 1979, rainfalls of 2-3" fairly widespread in the eastern U.S. and Canada, and January 1980 stayed dry and mild. The biggest weather event of that winter was a blizzard in southeast Virginia on leap year day (Feb 29-Mar 1 1980). 

What a waste of a good trough. 

Except for MLI and PIA which are probably going to run ahead most of the winter after their fast start. ORD probably still a bit ahead. I would think in the average winter, 15% of total snowfall has occurred by this date and 25% by end of December, 50% by end of January (more at lake effect locations), 75% by end of February, and 90% by end of March. While the contest region is at 20% that's biased by three locations that went well over, plus STL fairly high already. MQT got plenty of lake effect in October-November. The rest of the locations are already behind, I think. 

This low coming through might surprise, it does start to phase as it reaches Lake Ontario. Toronto might get a few inches of wet snow out of it. 

Extensive damage from a tornado that touched down briefly at Port Orchard, WA around 2145z on Tuesday 18th. Video shown on local news and substantial damage to homes and trees would suggest possibly EF-2 intensity. A very rare occurrence in a less than obvious severe storm environment with a rather average sort of Pacific frontal wave coming ashore. Radar got briefly intense, seems to have dropped out of a low cloud base and relatively low-topped cb cloud. Probably the second most intense tornado in the region (think there was something back around 1972 near Vancouver WA that was rated EF-3). More damage than seen at Manzanita OR last autumn IIRC. 

A damaging tornado touched down for about two minutes (1:45 pm PST) at Port Orchard, WA today. Videos on news reports show a low-based tornado creating debris over a residential area, and later aerial video shows a number of large homes severely damaged including roofs torn off. Also some large evergreen trees on the ground. The video looks to me like an EF-2 and the damage is consistent with at least that strong. 

Port Orchard is on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula roughly west of Seattle WA. 

What's the thinking on outcomes for this storm on the 21st? I am seeing some potential for this to start mixing hard west of a north-south line through Detroit and turning to heavy wet snow for southern MI and western OH, eastern IN. Mixed precip near end of storm for sw ON and e OH. Or will it just stay 33-deg rain or sleet? There has been an eastward trend. If it flips to snow it could accumulate 8-15" probably too wet to blow around much, but it's a storm track similar to Nov 24-25 1950 and a weaker version of the 1978 blizzard without as much cold air around. High amplitude solutions usually result in memorable storms though. 

This near-term 20th-21st event looks like a heavy snow producer at high elevations of WV and western VA, even if it's all rain for most in the region. Some ski resorts may do well from it, if the trend east stabilizes. This is a high energy peak with full moon on the 22nd, strong southeast winds will be accompanied by very high tides in the region too. At this point looks like 2-3" rainfalls and 55-60 deg temps trending to 45-50 closer to Blue Ridge, but freezing levels in WV not much higher than 2,000' could allow for some heavy snowfalls on higher slopes. Would need a further 200 miles east trend to become a genuine snow threat for most of the region, seems out of the picture now but hey, getting near coastal storms to shift 200 miles east is easy enough. Why not this one? 

 

Snowfalls to date -- moved to page two, on Jan 23rd, 2019.

 

 

 

You should keep the keys, the contest is great but I just like to see the spread of forecasts as we move forward (if we move forward).  That way, I know it's not just me who cut one. 

SBY snow will eventually appear in the CF6, would be my guess, but they had a map showing some amounts like 2" in the same general area. 

On the bright side, 49 of 59 forecasts can still accommodate some additional snow at RIC. Half of us can make room for another 5.5" -- but most of us need storms that mostly miss RIC now. I would be hard pressed to name a favorite at this point. We all tend to look for confirmation of our own forecast, but just as a pure statistical exercise, I would say Grothar of Herndon might have the best chance given this odd start to the season. 

This is the same table that I posted earlier, reorganized in order of RIC forecasts. I have placed snow to date near its closest RIC forecasts. (RIC in blue, DCA regular type, IAD red, BWI green and tiebreakers orange (if LYH, * added) ... have edited in Jan 13 additional snowfalls (RIC with 1.5" has only increased slightly and moved down only slightly further into this chart). ... have added Jan 17 reported snowfalls ...

updated to Mar 8th.

 

Forecaster _____Nov date __ 0" __ 2" __ 4" __ 6" __ 8" __10" __12"__14"__16"__18"_20"_22"_24"_26"_28"_30"_32"_34"_36".38".40"...45"...50"..60"..70"..80"

 

Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 ___________ 3.2 _______ 7.5 _____________________ 18.3 ___________25.8 27.6

MN Transplant _____ 28 _________________5.4 __ 7.8 ___________ 14.2 ____ 17.8_19.6

nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 _______________________ 8.0 _______ 13.0 ____16.0 _________ 22.0_ 25.0

EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 __________________ 6.5_7.8_8.710.911.1

Bristow Wx _________ 1 __________________ 6.7_7.4_8.7 ______ 12.6 13.8

supernovasky _______ 9 __________________________9.0__11.0 12.0___________ 19.020.0

Olafminesaw _______25 ________________________ 8.7_ 9.8 ____________ 17.3 __19.4 ____ 23.5

leesburg 04 _________1 _______________________________11.0 12.0 ______ 17.0_____ 22.023.0

dmillz25 ____________1 ___________________________10.0 11.0 __________ 19.0 _________25.0 __ 29.0

WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 _______________________________ 11.0 _ 13.0_____18.0 ______ 23.0_________ 32.0

cae ______________ 30 _____________________________ 11.7_12.7 _______________ 21.8 _______27.6___ 31.3

_ Snow to date __ Mar 8 _________ 5.3 _______________ 13.1__16.9 18.2 _ (21.0)*____ 26.5

LP08 ______________ 5 ___________________________________13.314.6 _______ 19.7 _____________________ 34.4_______ 42.6

RodneyS __________ 21 ____________________________ 10.5 __ 13.3 13.9 ________ 20.3 __23.6

mattie g __________ 28 _____________________________ 10.4 ______ 13.9 _________ 21.1 ____________ 30.6 __________38.7

Sparky ____________ 2 ________________________________________ 14.015.0_____________ 25.0 ___________34.0 _____ 39.0

Bob Chill __________ 27 ___________________________________ 12.0_14.0_16.0 _____________ 26.0 _29.0

Yoda _____________ 27 ________________________ 8.4 ____________ 14.1 __________21.8 _________ 29.6 __32.9

GATECH __________ 1 _______________________________________14.214.3 ___________________________________ 35.7 _______44.9_47.5

biodhokie __________ 8 _________________________________________ 14.5__17.8 18.1__21.3__________ 30.2

Weather53 _________21 _________________________________________ 14.7_16.516.8___21.2_22.1

Chris78 ____________ 1 ____________________________________12.4 _ 14.9 __ 18.4 ___________ 26.7_28.6

MillvilleWx __________1 _________________________ 8.7 _____________15.0 _______21.1 _________27.4_29.5

ravensrule _________12 __________________________________________15.0_17.0 __________________ 30.0 ____________38.0_40.0

Gopper ___________ 15 ____________________________ 9.9 ___________15.5 _ 17.7 ________________28.8 ___ 33.3

Prestige Worldwide __27 __________________________________ 12.4 ____15.8 __________ 23.0 ___________31.0 ____ 35.0

NorthArlington101 ___ 1 __________________________ 9.1 ______________16.0 _________22.8 __25.7 ______ 32.2

WxWatcher007 _____30 _____________________________10.6 ___________ 16.4 ____ 21.1 _________ 28.9 ____32.5

Shadowzone _______ 14 ____________________________________________ 16.8 ___ 20.3*__ 24.1 _________31.7 ____ 35.7

Cobalt ____________30 __________________________________12.1 _______16.8 _______________ 26.9 ______ 33.2 _______39.4

BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _________________________________12.0 _______ 17.0 _________ 24.0 _____________34.0 ___ 38.0

 

___ Consensus ____ median ___________________________________Sby14.4_17.0 ____ 22.7 _____Lyh 30.1*_30.6_ 35.0

 

Prince Frederick Wx _ 1 _______________________________________14.3 ___ 17.117.7 ____24.5 __ 27.8

Stormpc ___________26 _______________________________________16.716.817.2_19.9 __ 24.6

Gramax Refugee ____27 ______________________________________15.2_16.9 17.2 ________________ 29.5_32.0

snowgolfbro _______ 10 ________________________________________ 14.5 __ 18.0 _________________ 30.0 ____________________ 47.0 _52.0

clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ______________________________________ 15.5 _ 18.5 ______________27.5 ___________ 36.5 37.5

nj2va ____________ 1 __________________________________ 11.5 ____________ 18.9 ______________ 29.2 _____________________ 48.7 _______ 59.9

mappy ____________ 5 __________________________________________________ 19.0 _ 22.0_ 25.0 ________32.0 __ 35.0

Grothar of Herndon _ 30 _______________________________________14.4 ____18.3 19.2 ______ 25.7 __ 29.1

North Balti Zen ______ 5 ______________________________________ 14.0 ________ 19.6_21.1 _______ 28.8 ________35.7

OnceinaLifetime2009_28 _______________________________11.1 _________________19.9 _______ 26.7 __ 30.1 ________________44.5

psuhoffman ________ 1 _________________________________________________19.0 20.0 __________ 28.0 ____________37.0 39.0

HighStakes _________ 6 ________________________________________________ 18.7 20.0 ___ 24.5 ___________________ 37.4 _41.1

Wonderdog ________ 9 ________________________________ 12.75 _____ 16.0 _____ 20.0 ________ 27.0 ____ 33.0

C. A. P. E. _________ 1 _____________________________________________________ 20.1 ___24.5 ______30.3 ______ 35.8_ 38.5

southMDwatcher ___ 20 _________________________________11.4 ________________ 20.7 ______________ 31.1 ______________ 43.8_47.9

Roger Smith ______ 26 ^ 1 _________________________________________ 16.5 _______ 21.0 _______ 29.2 ___________42.5 43.8

WxUSAF ___________ 5 ____________________________________________16.6 ________21.1 22.7 _________31.5 _ 35.2

SnowLuvrDude _____30 _________________________________________________________21.7_ 24.2 ______________ 37.1 ______ 48.6_52.4

weatherCCB _______ 16 ___________________________________________________19.5 __23.0 ____ 27.4 ____________________ 46.8_49.6

showmethesnow ___ 27 ______________________________________________17.0 _______ 24.0 _______________ 34.0 ______________ 50.0 _54.0

JakkelWx _________ 30 _________________________________________________________ 24.0 ____27.0 __________35.0 ___40.0_42.0

budice2002  _______ 14 ______________________________________________________________ 26.0  29.0 31.0 _____________ 42.0_46.0

wxdude64 ________ 13 ________________________________________________________________ 26.1 __30.1*__________ 38.4 ______________55.8 57.4

AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 __________________________________________ n/a ______________________28.0 _______________ 40.0 _____________ 56.0 __________ 65.0

tplbge ___________ 16 ______________________________________________17.0 ___________________ 29.0 ____34.0 ______________49.0 _53.0

T. August _________ 21 ___________________________________________________19.1__22.9 ____ 27.5_29.2 _______ 36.0

osfan24 ___________ 7 _____________________________________________________ 21.2 ______________ 31.3 _________________ 46.2 _____54.3_55.9

RIC Airport ________ 1 _________________________________________________________________________ 32.2 _________________46.0 __________ 57.8*_ 61.9 62.5

George BM ________ 15 _____ 1.41.7 3.0___________________________________________________________________________42.7___ 50.2

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________