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Posts posted by Roger Smith
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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:
JFK: 3; LGA and NYC: 4; EWR: 6.
That's interesting and I think Liberty Bell was wondering if any NYC spells of 98+ are longer than four days from 1917. Are those the records for each location? I haven't looked at data yet to check answer to his question.
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11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
Roger, did 1887 or 1917 have any 100 degree days?
1887 peaked at 96F and 1917 had one (100F on July 31, see my previous post also)
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47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
100 back to back days in 1901 would have been a really big deal wow!!
Yes, somebody said, 'you know what, we need a machine that can make cold air, so we don't have to haul all of this ice around during hot weather.'
Looking back I find these two consecutive 100F days to be the first such case, the next time it happened was in 1926 (July 21-22).
Probably 98 100 98 98 from July 30 to Aug 2 1917 was more oppressive however.
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45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
It's fairly common to have really good winters after 100 degree heat in the summer (examples are 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1993, 1995, 2010, 2013).
You could also add 1887 (thinking of winter 1887-88) which had a very warm July, warmer than 1901. I guess it's not an invariable rule, there was nothing particularly severe about winters 1896-97, or 1953-54, but I would say you could add 1980 to your list because winter 1980-81 featured some extremely cold spells, it just wasn't a very snowy winter and it ended early (second half of Feb 1981 was probably top five in average temp).
The summer of 1917 was not all that hot but a spell in late July and early August set a number of records.
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The 1911 heat looks like this:
July 2 __ 94 75
July 3 __100 77 _ max tied 1898 as record broken by 103F in 1966. ... all mins slightly below records set in 1876 (3rd) and 1908 (4th-6th)
July 4 __ 97 77 _ max set record broken by 99F in 1919 (eventual 102F 1949)
July 5 __ 97 77 _ max set record broken by 98F in 1919 (tied in 1955) (eventual 101F 1999)
July 6 __ 98 77 (0.12") _ max set record tied in 1986 and broken in 1999 (101F) (then 2010 103F)
July 7 __ 86 74
July 8 __ 81 70 ... looks like front pushed a little south then rebounded
July 9 __ 92 69
July 10__ 99 78 (.02") _ max set record broken by 1936 (tied 1999) of 102F ... min was 1F lower than 1905 record tied 1910 79F, broken by 80F 1993)
July 11__ 97 76 _ max set record broken by 98F in 1988 (97F again in 1993)
July 12__ 90 78 _ min was 1F lower than 1905 record 79F still record today)
July 13 __88 72
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It stayed relatively warm all summer without this level of heat, and rainfall picked up steadily through August, 1.52" rain 15th and 1.65" 25th, until record cool daytime values arrived Aug 30 and 31 (highs 62, 59; lows 56, 55) (4.61" rain in 2d)
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Heat in 1919 followed rapidly some record cool nights June 29 (52F) and June 30 (53F). It was a hot spell of relatively brief duration.
July 1 __ 90 60
July 2 __ 91 67
July 3 __ 97 72
July 4 __ 99 74 _ record to 1949
July 5 __ 98 78 _ record max to 1999 (was tied 1955)
July 6 __ 89 72 (0.35")
The rest of summer 1919 was not particularly hot (August quite cool, including record low 57F on 9th) and featured some heavy rainfalls at times. Sep 8 tied a record of 93F later broken by 97F in 2015. Oct 3 (87F) and Oct 29 (83F) are surviving records set in a warm October.
Both 1911 and 1919 were followed by extremely cold Januaries in 1912 and 1920.
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Average scores of the regular entrants:
Tom 69.3 _ implied average error 1.53 F
hudsonvalley21 ... 68.2 (1.6 F)
so_whats_happening ... 66.6 (1.68 F)
RJay ... 65.4 (1.73 F) (some late pens so avg is really 1.6 F)
Scotty Lightning ... 65.2 (1.74 F)
wxallannj ... 64.4 (1.78 F)
BKViking ... 64.1 (1.8 F)
wxdude64 ... 63.5 (1.82 F)
DonSutherland ... 63.4 (1.83 F)
StormchaserChuck ... 61.6 (1.92 F)
RodneyS ... 61.4 (1.93 F)
Roger Smith ... 58.7 (2.06 F)
Normal ... 55.0 (2.25 F)
persistence ... 46 (2.7 F)
What this tells us is, our forecast errors range from 1.5 to 2.1 deg on average (slightly larger because a few scores were inflated by max 60) and a random guess against normal would average 2.3 F, using the previous month's data has an average error (or average change) of 2.7 F. Anyone who could maintain a 1.0 F error average would currently be scoring 4200 (and all of us would be lower because there would have been no max 60 scores). Perfect forecasts would currently be scoring 5400.
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On 7/1/2025 at 1:55 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:
I always get kind of lost looking back for the updated posts.. you might want to consider making a new post for every new data, projections and all. It's a little easier to navigate and we know when it's happening by seeing a new post in the thread.
I need to come back for the rest of the year in this contest! So far I'm performing lower than I thought I should. I used to go with the least popular numbers, but the scoring isn't per place, it's only deviations from values, so it's better to not go against the grain.
I think the whole group are fairly close this year, you are 419 points behind the leader and a lot fewer behind middle of pack, but that 419 points is over 54 forecasts made, so an average of 7.8 points per forecast, a differential which implies a forecast error in relative terms of 0.39 F deg. There's more complexity than that but if the leader (Tom) is 0.39 closer on every forecast, that explains the differential. Probably it's really a spectrum of differentials ranging mostly from you being 1.5 better to him being 2.5 better, or similar. It's not a big difference, is it? To make up 419 points you would need two months of very accurate forecasts against the usual consensus here which is often good but not superb (this month overperformed in general). If you had two months where every forecast you made was 1.0 F better you would gain (in relative terms) 18 x 20 points (360).
A slight complication is that a few months are scored on a more generous sliding scale if all forecasts are below a raw score of 60 or if the anomaly is bigger than 5 F deg. If you nailed those sorts of months (more likely in winter) you could make up a lot of ground very fast because if one person breaks 60, everyone else is stuck with their raw scores.
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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:
what was the peak of the 1901 heat event in NYC Roger?
The peak was today, July 2nd still holds record highs on both max and min side (100, 82). The over-90 portion of the 1901 heat wave ran from June 26 to July 3. The highs and lows for those eight days were
June 26 ___ 91 72 _ max was a record tied with three previous years until 1904,1909 tied 93, then 1923 had 94, 1943 and 49 96F, and 1952 100F (96F 1963 warmest since, 93F warmest recent 2003 and 2024.
June 27 ___ 91 74
June 28 __ 93 75
June 29 __ 95 76
June 30 __ 95 60 _ max a record tied in 1931, broken 97F 1945 (eventual 99F 1964)
July 1 __ 100 78 _ max is a record, min was a record until 79F in 2018
July 2 __ 100 82 (.03 in) _ both records today, max shared with 1966
July 3 ___ 94 76 (.31 in) suspect the 94 was early and it dropped during the day
After 84/71 on the 4th, a record 3.07 inches of rain fell on the 5th (86/75) and 1.26 more on the 6th (77/74). It's pretty easy to visualize a stalled front being responsible for the heavy rainfalls.
Then a second less severe heat wave lasted from July 14 to 24 (86 to 93 max, highest 21st). Several overnight lows were 76 to 78 F in that warm spell.
A record low max of 69F was observed on July 26 then it warmed back to 92, 93 on July 29-30. Aug and Sep were close to average with a mix of warm and cool spells.
July 1901 had a mean of 77.7 F and was 4th warmest July 1869-1901 and is now t39 of 157. Factoring in an increasing heat island it ranks 27th.
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Alligators falling from the sky in thunderstorms ... I wonder how that would look in a METAR?
KCHS __ 29/27 3125G38 TRW+ Alligators all quads
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Also for history buffs the severe 1901 and 1911 heat waves were nearing peak intensity. They were both comparable to 1966 in regional impacts. 1901 set records in the brief NYC data to that time for four days including June 30 to July 2, and still holds the last two (sharing today with 1966). A record 95F on June 30 was tied in 1931, broken in 1945 (97F) and that was again broken in 1964 (99F). The 1911 heat wave was well into the 100s in a lot of places, NYC must have been somewhat reduced by sea breezes because its highest values were near 100F. Toronto had 103F on July 3, 1911. The NYC data show records set on July 3, 4, 5, 6, 10 and 11, but none survived, broken by 1966, 1919, 1919, 1999, 1936 and 1988.
Despite the smaller urban heat island, these heat waves had some stifling warm nights. For July 1, 1901 the record set was 78F not surpassed until 79F in 2018. For July 2, 1901 the record set (82F) still stands for the date. In 1911 the minima were all near 77F and were not daily records even then but there was little relief for ten days of heat.
The 1966 heat wave(s) broke or tied five daily maxima, and did not set any high minima although four readings were 1F lower than existing records, some of which have since been broken. These were all in the high 70s. Even the 1936 heat wave did not set any daily records for high minima but when it only drops to high 70s after mid-100s, that isn't enough time to ventilate scorching interiors without A/C. Further inland the 1936 heat wave was more prolonged and had even worse overnight conditions, Toronto had lows close to 80F during it and had three consecutive 105F readings (July 8 to 10). Even in southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario the 1936 heat wave had readings near 110F and overnight lows above 80F. Of course in North Dakota it was close to 120F in that unprecedented event. Western Canada returned to the same level of heat the next summer but that 1937 heat was somewhat modified when it spread east (even so it hit 100F in NYC).
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Corn sweat. I recall dew points near or even above 90F in Iowa in summer of 1995.
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I suppose philosophically you could argue, in the 1930s the central part of the U.S. was a dust bowl, it has been rescued from that condition and probably won't entirely return to it, so highs set in the 1930s all around the country should be modified for "climate continuity." But the fact is, those were real temperatures experienced by real people. Just as Central Park with all its trees is now the new reality there. It is what it is. We can compare values with that knowledge and form conclusions about what they mean about the "real climate."
As to the new normal of interior western heat waves, that is not being caused by terrain modification (the terrain is the same as always) but by a weaker upper flow at those latitudes as the jet stream migrates north on average further into n.w. Canada. This is why we're seeing more frequent super heat waves in the west. It did happen in the past too but not as frequently. As one person told me, a national forest in Nevada is where you can see a tree from the shade of another tree. Lightning finds it pretty easy to pick those trees off one at a time, I've actually seen it happen. 98F here today, but the dew point in the 50s makes it relatively tolerable.
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<<< July daily records for NYC 1869-2024 >>>
(I know, trees, shade, blah blah)
Notes: temps in brackets with low mins are that day's max if it wasn't the daily low max.
2d highest rainfalls are previous day and day reported ... July 1 would include June 30.
if marked * are only observed on day (example 2.80" July 3, 1930, July 2 was dry).
if marked ** were only from previous day, reporting day was dry (example 3.13" on July 7, 1884 provided 2d record July 7-8).
DATE ____ High max ___ High min _____ Low max ____ Low min __________Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ notes
Jul 01 ___100 1901 ____ 79 2018 _______ 70 1869,71,88 _52 1943 (74) ______2.17 1933 ___ 3.71 1984
Jul 02 ___100 1901,66 _ 82 1901 _______ 67 1891 _____ 56 1888, 2011 ____1.79 1914 ___ 2.41 1914
Jul 03 ___103 1966 ____ 82 2002 _______64 1870,1914 __54 1933 (65) ______2.80 1930 ___ 2.80 1930*
Jul 04 ___102 1949 ____ 81 2002 _______ 62 1978 _____55 1986 (77) ______ 1.76 1981 ___ 3.19 1967 (2.08+1.11) 2.91" 2d 1978
Jul 05 ___101 1999 ____ 82 1999 _______ 62 1882 _____ 53 1979 (69) ______ 3.07 1901 ___ 3.07 1901*
Jul 06 ___103 2010 ____ 83 1999 _______ 61 1956 _____ 54 1979 (78) ______ 1.97 1896 ___ 4.33 1901
Jul 07 ___100 2010 ____ 84 1908 _______71 1914,43,87 _56 1914 __________ 3.13 1984 ___ 3.14 1984
Jul 08 ___100 1993 ____ 80 1993 _______ 66 2005 ____ 56 1894 (67) ______ 2.27 2021 ___ 3.13 1984**
Jul 09 ___106 1936 ____80 1981^_______ 63 1964 _____54 1963 (78) ______ 2.06 2021 ___ 4.33 2021
Jul 10 ___102 1936,93__80 1993 _______ 65 1917 _____ 55 1890 (70) ______ 2.54 2020 ___ 2.33 2021__(2.32 1997)
Jul 11 ___ 98 1988 _____ 79 1988 _______ 64 1914 _____ 57 1893, 98 _______ 1.94 1940 ___ 3.30 2020 __ 2.72" 2d 1874 (1.94+0.78)
Jul 12 ___ 99 1966 ____ 79 1905 _______ 67 1990 _____ 57 1926 ___________ 2.68 1937 ___ 3.09 1937
Jul 13 ___101 1966 ____ 79 1876 _______ 67 1964 _____ 54 1888 (70) _____ 3.16 1972 ___ 3.16 1972* __ 2.83" 2d 1897 (0.54+2.29)
Jul 14 ___100 1954 ____ 78 1952 _______ 73 2017^____ 58 1877,88,1926 __ 1.47 1908 ___ 3.16 1972**
Jul 15 ___102 1995 ____ 84 1995 _______ 67 1926 _____57 1930 (78) 14th __ 1.80 1975 ___ 1.98 1975 tied 1.98 2000 (0.59+1.39)
Jul 16 ___ 99 1980 ____ 80 1952 _______ 70 1933 _____ 56 1926, 46 _______ 1.50 1871 ___ 2.16 1926 (0.78+1.38)
Jul 17 ___100 1953 ____ 82 1870 _______ 72 1992 _____57 1892 (76) ______ 3.13 1995 ___ 3.16 1995 __ 2.91 1877
Jul 18 ___101 1953 ____ 81 1900,2013 __ 66 1962 _____ 57 1925 (77) ______ 1.81 2022 ___ 3.36 1995
Jul 19 ___102 1977 ____ 83 2013 _______ 69 2000 _____57 1924 (77) 18th __ 1.82 1919 ___ 2.67 1919
Jul 20 ___101 1980 ____ 82 2015,19 ____ 69 1869 _____55 1890 (70) ______ 1.97 1889 ___ 2.77 1919 __ 2.22 1988 (0.94+1.28)
Jul 21 ___104 1977 ____ 82 1980 _______ 66 1956 _____55 1890 (73) ______ 2.26 1983 ___ 2.99 1988 (1.28+1.71)
Jul 22 ___104 2011 ____ 84 2011 _______ 69 1958 _____58 1871, 90 _______ 1.86 1880 ___ 2.50 1896 (1.06+1.44)
Jul 23 ___100 2011 ____ 83 2011 _______70 1996^_____58 1871,90 _________ 2.41 1953 ___ 2.99 1946 __ also 2.70 1938 (0.30+2.40)
Jul 24 ___ 97 1999,2010 _80 2010 _______ 67 1904 _____56 1893 (74) _____ 3.75 1997 ___3.75 1997 __ also 2.73 1938 (2.40+0.33)
Jul 25 ___ 97 1999 ____ 80 1885 _______ 68 2013 _____57 1953 (79) ______ 1.64 1926 ___ 4.62 1997 __ 2.49 1975 (1.06+1.43)
Jul 26 ___ 98 1940 ____ 79 1979 _______ 69 1901,2000_55 1920 (75) _____ 3.24 2000 ___ 3.24 1997*__ 2.91 1872 (1d)
Jul 27 ___ 98 1940,63__78 1995 _______ 68 1897,2000_55 1920 (79) ______2.65 1889 ___ 4.37 2000
Jul 28 ___ 97 1999^____ 80 2020 _______68 1897 _____57 1903 (72 27th) _ 3.11 1913 ___ 3.11 1913*__ 3.06 1902 (1d)
Jul 29 ___ 99 1949 ____ 79 1995, 2002 _ 69 1884 _____59 1914 (69 28th) _ 3.47 1980 ___ 3.47 1980* __ 3.14 1913 2d
Jul 30 ___ 98 1988^____80 2002 _______ 68 1881,1914_57 1956 (75) ______ 3.56 1960 ___ 3.64 1971 (0.64+3.00)
Jul 31 ___102 1933 ____ 82 1917 _______ 65 1923 _____ 57 1895, 1914 ______ 2.29 1889 ___ 3.56 1960**_ 3.13" 1971 2d ^
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trivia ...
^ min with the 1936 all-time record high max was 77. 1937 had 79 same date. Despite this, hundreds died of heat prostration in the 1936 heat wave.
^ low max tied July 14 in 1884, 1960, 1963, 2017
note 18th: 2022 replaced 2012 (1.72")
^ low max tied July 23 in 1894, 1909, 1969, 1992, 1996.
^ max for July 28 tied 1892, 1931, 1949, 1999.
^ max for July 30 tied 1917, 1933, 1940, 1988.
^ 2d rainfall July 30-31 3.00" 1918 (2.00+1.00)
__________________________________________________________________
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It would be similar because I tend to post estimated scoring around the 20th then open the thread for new forecasts, edit the scoring ... but it's not that difficult to find the scoring posts, they are usually before the first forecasts for the current month. I'll go back to the old system (this is the only year I have done it this way) if we keep going into 2026. By the way, all scoring is updated, NYC has "missing" for 30th in CF6, but Don posted on NYC forum that the anomaly was +1.2 and that seems to fit the 1.0 to 29th and daily departure on 30th climate report of +5 ... if I see anything different in days ahead assuming they update that CF6, I will edit the scoring.
This was one of the highest scoring months in a while, everyone broke 600 (even Normal and Persistence). Tom with 788 probably has a new p.b., I track that in the Dec 2024 thread at present and haven't gone in there to update yet. That will all migrate to Dec 2025 eventually. The highest score ever in 12 years of contests has been 810. I think several in the contest would have broken that using my ORD forecast (or if I used all eight of yours except ORD).
Probably what will make it easier for people in general will be if I migrate scoring tables to end of new forecasts (they are already at beginning of new forecasts). I will do that but I don't think it's that hard to find them, they are generally a lot uglier than the rest of the thread!
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Calling all Vikings. ... Just polishing up the scoring for June and going into the update of annual scoring but I can see from how close the June scores are to each other that there cannot be huge changes in the annual contest, and basically, it's looking very competitive especially given the fact that previous years' usual leaders are a little back of the current leaders. I suspect it's going to be a fully-engaged battle for the title this year (if anyone cares about it that much).
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The historical highlights missed the biggest event on this date, namely the peak of the Pacific NW - BC heat dome in 2021.
On June 30, 2021 it was 44 C (112 F) here, breaking our all-time record by probably five degrees. It was 49 C (120 F) at Lytton BC, a hotspot every summer but in this case, it burned to the ground at 5 p.m. due to a train spark induced brush fire fanned by the hot up-valley winds. The town (formerly home to 1,200 people) remains largely in ruins now as local governments wrangle about who will pay what to rebuild it, and native groups request careful handling of possible archaeological remnants. Most of the buildings were reduced to ground slabs and scattered debris, if you went in there now it would look like any other ghost town, but its population want to restore it.
I don't have the U.S. numbers handy but I'm pretty sure the peak of the heat wave was on June 28th to July 1st at all recording sites. (later edit, 116F at Portland on June 28, and 108F at SEA-TAC ... 117 F at Pendleton and Omak on June 29 and 116F in Spokane) ... There were hundreds of heat prostration deaths in the region. Various locations in BC, WA and OR got well above 110 F, coming close to all-time records if not breaking them (1898 had some of those, 1941 had others). Looks like the severe heat broke down on the coast by the 29th but remained inland to July 1-2, I recall it sort of fizzled out gradually in the first week of July and then the severe smoke episode began later in July as fires began to spread through BC and WA.
We were under 594 dm thickness here for several days, so this was just like the heat they get routinely in Las Vegas and Phoenix, and it felt the same, heat radiating into your face but no cooling sprays along the sidewalks like they have in Vegas (I managed to hit Las Vegas for their August record high of 118 F in 2011, just on my way to much less torrid places higher up in southern Utah but that heat wave was very similar to the heat dome, only where it was supposed to be).
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+1.7 __ +1.5 __ +1.3 __ +1.2 __ +2.0 __ +2.0 ___ +0.3 __ +1.5 __ +0.7
June scoring is back in thread, everyone did well so there won't be big changes in the annual scoring race which I will update in another "back in thread" post set aside to take on that work (before all July forecasts except wxdude64's early submission) ...
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Just my usual reminder to NYC forecast contest regulars to get a forecast in on Monday 30th. And have a great 4th of July everybody.
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Today's min of 77F at NYC was 1F off the 2021 record which replaced 1870 (77F) so it was tied second warmest for the date.
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Bonus coverage, here's a list of benchmark record high minimum values (for NYC) ... I reverse them at the point where the trend line reverses in early February ...
(going up)
51F __ Feb 5, 1991 (mildest in period Jan 28 to Feb 15)
56F __ Feb 16, 2023
58F __ Feb 24, 2018
63F __ Mar 10, 2016
66F __ Mar 31, 1998
68F __ Apr 9, 1991
70F __ Apr 14, 2023
74F __ Apr 17, 2002
76F __ Apr 18, 2002
77F __ June 1, 1895
78F __ June 4, 1943
79F __ June 10, 1984
80F __ June 23, 2025
81F __ June 24, 2025
82F __ July 2, 1901
83F __ July 6, 1999
84F __ July 7, 1908
(84F also July 15, 1995 and July 22, 2001)
84F __ Aug 14, 1908
(heading down now)
81F __ Aug 29, 2018
79F __ Sep 7, 1881
78F __ Sep 11, 1983
77F __ Sep 23, 1970
75F __ Oct 5, 1898
72F __ Oct 8, 2017
71F __ Oct 10, 2018
69F __ Oct 25, 1908
67F __ Nov 2, 1971
66F __ Nov 6, 2015, 2022
64F __ Nov 11, 2002, 2020
63F __ Dec 24, 2015
59F __ Jan 4, 1950
56F __ Jan 14, 1932
54F __ Jan 15, 1995
53F __ Jan 27, 1916
(and back to 51F Feb 5, 1991).
... very few of these are concurrent with high max benchmarks (Mar 2016, Apr 2002, Sep 1881).
... the midsummer situation is different, a plateau of four equal values, not one peak as in July 1936.
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My NYC list has a different structure through winter, Don has used the calendar year to generate his list, and if I did that it would add a few, making Dec 24, 2015 (72F) a legitimate entry, then 70F Dec 29, 1984, 65F Dec 30 1984, 63F Dec 31, 1965, 62F Jan 1, 1966, 68F Jan 2, 1876 and 72F Jan 6, 2007. (next as per my list, 73F in Feb 1949 etc).
The equivalent to my mid-winter reversal method for JFK, I think, would be to skip all the entries of 70F or lower in Dec, then 71F Jan 6, 2007, followed by February's highest value, and on to the listed values from March onwards. Or reverse in late January if there is a higher value than February there.
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Thanks Don, I was going to say that I didn't have a list but you probably would be able to generate one.
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17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
It's interesting how we do not have late season intense heat anymore (at least to my knowledge)-- we did have 95 in October here a few years ago (at JFK). But our latest 98 in recent memory was in September 2010 and our latest 99 was on September 11, 1983 wasn't it?
Our latest 100 goes all the way back to September 7, 1881 (actually 101.) It was NYC's first 100 ever recorded and also its latest.
That 99 in 1983 tied 1931 (Sep 11) but yes it was the latest in season. The next benchmarks are 97F on Sep 23, 1895 and 94F Oct 5, 1941, 91F Oct 10, 1939, and 90F Oct 17, 1938. Benchmarks after that are Oct 22 1979 (88F), Oct 23, 1947 (85F), Nov 1 and 2 1950 (84F, 83F), Nov 15 1993 (80F), Nov 20, 1985 (77F) , Dec 7 1998 (75F) and possibly Dec 24 2015 (72F). (a benchmark as you probably know is a latest occurrence in season, or an earliest from midwinter to midsummer).
Benchmarks before the 1881 101F are (by definition) the all-time record 106F July 9, 1936, then 104F Aug 7, 1918, 103F Aug 26, 1948 and 102F Sep 2, 1953, 101F Sep 7, 1881.
2015 (Dec 24) at 72F is a partially invalid benchmark as it was also 72F on Jan 6, 2007 and Jan 26, 1950. These are probably the real benchmarks eliminating Dec 24, 2015 but another view would be only Jan 25, 1950 is a benchmark (falling) because the coldest day of winter is on average in early February. This is when the benchmarks reverse, so the set of spring into summer benchmarks are 73F (Feb 15, 1949), 78F Feb 21, 2018, 79F Mar 10, 2016, 85F Mar 13, 1990, 86F Mar 29, 1945, 92F Apr 7, 2010; 96F Apr 17, 2002; 99F May 19, 1962; 100F June 26, 1952, 101F June 27, 1966, and 103F July 3, 1966 before the ultimate 106F July 9, 1936. These are the only daily records that "really matter" in the sense that all others are not as impressive in terms of being earliest or latest occurrences. It's interesting how few of these are recent. If you only count the 72F in Jan 1950, then there are 29 benchmarks (one tied 1931,1983, and two cases of two consecutive in same year 1950 and 1966) and the median of the 26 years involved (1950 counts three times, 1966 twice) is 1952. The years counted are
1881 1895 1918 1931 1936 1938 1939 1941 1945 1947 1948 1950** 1952 1953 1962 1966* 1979 1983 1985 1990 1993 1998 2002 2010 (2007, 2015 not counted) 2016 2018 ...
The benchmarks cluster noticeably from 1936 to 1953 (12 of 29), and 1979 to 2002 (7 more). There is no significant bias towards recent decades, with 29 benchmarks over 156 years, one would expect 4 since 2000 which is the case. The number established by 1918 (3) is well below random expectation (9). The only year with two non-consecutive benchmarks from the same spell of weather is 1950 (one in January, two in early November). But if Dec 2015 counted, the two closest in time (non-associated) would be that one and March 10, 2016.
I'm not sure what name you could give an almost-benchmark, which would be a case like April 18, 1976, tying a benchmark and clearly a near-equal outlier (86F Mar 31 1998 would be another, as would 94F on Sep 23, 1914). I guess almost-benchmark is probably as good as we'll get. A benchmark can be erased as even a daily record, for example, April 7, 1929 (89F) was a benchmark until 2010 replaced it as both a daily record and benchmark. 1991 held a 90F benchmark set April 8, that one is still a daily record but was removed as a benchmark by 2010.
May is the only month with only one benchmark. That is a sign of the extreme significance of the 1976 and 2002 April 96 readings, no date in early to mid-May exceeded them (before 1962, the benchmarks were 92F (Apr 27, 1915), 93F (May 12, 1881), 95F (May 25, 1880), 96F (May 31 1895, 1939) and 99F (June 4, 1925).
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43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
I know about the other historic summers but what late hot streak did we have in 1973? Thats my birth year lol
It was very similar to 1953 in timing and duration but not quite as intense, highs were often 95 to 98 and failed to break records but it was very hot (I was actually in NYC for one day during it, on a road trip). The records it did set were ties for max and min on 30th (98/78, ties with 1953 for the max and 2018 for the min). So it has the highest daily mean for Aug 30th.
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
in New York City Metro
Posted
I found three others (98+ over four days) ,,, one in 1933 (same dates as 1917, July 30 to Aug 2) 98 102 100 98) and also Aug 28 to 31 1953 (98 99 98 100) which were followed by 97 102, so six over 97 there. And in 1993 July 7-10 ran 98 100 101 102 with 97 on the 11th.
1977 had four at 97+ (July 16-19 ran 98 97 100 102) and 2001 had four at 97+ Aug 7 to 10 (99 99 103 97) ... June 4 1925 ran 99 99 98 96 and Aug 12-15 1944 was 97 102 97 96 (followed by 95 95 96 95). Aug 23 -27 1948 was 95 103 101 100 95.