Roger Smith

Four Seasons Contest __ Winter 2023-24

Points for four seasons ... 10 for first (total 3 scores), 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, 1 point for all entrants with 2/3 or 3/3 

FORECASTER ___________________ DEC ___ JAN-FEB ___ TOTAL ___ Points

wxallannj ________________________ 576 ______ 1160 ______ 1736 ______10

DonSutherland 1 _________________482 ______ 1042 ______ 1524 ______ 7

RodneyS _________________________426 ______ 1071 ______ 1497 ______ 6

so_whats_happening ____________444 ______ 1043 ______ 1487 ______ 5

hudsonvalley21 __________________442 ______ 1008 ______ 1450 ______ 4

___ Consensus ___________________380 ______ 1028 ______ 1408 ______3.3

RJay _____________________________464 _______ 927 ______ 1391 ______ 3 __ (974) (1438) before late pen _ Con would be 2.8

BKViking ________________________ 336 ______ 1000 ______ 1336 ______ 2

Scotty Lightning _________________328 _______ 856 ______ 1184 ______ 1

rainsucks ________________________ -- -- _____ 1111 _______ 1111 _______ 1

wxdude64 _______________________206 ______ 892 ______ 1098 ______ 1

Tom _____________________________ 310 _______ 728 ______ 1038 ______ 1

___ Normal ________________________192 ______ 810 ______ 1002 ______ 1

Roger Smith _____________________294 _______ 499 _______ 793 ______ 1

Stormchaser Chuck _____________ -- -- ______ 792 _______ 792 ______ 1

Rhino16 _________________________ -- -- ______ 747 _______ 747 _______ 1

=====================

Persistence (Nov 2023) __________338 ______ 634 ______ 972 ______ 1

Toronto (downtown location 1840-2024) also recorded its warmest February (+1.5 C) edging out 1998, and the  Central England Temperature (CET) series recorded second warmest 7.8 C just below record of 7.9 (1779). This data set runs 1659 to present. CET also recorded warmest Feb daily mean of 13.7 C. (15 Feb, broke record 12.8 set 4 Feb 2004) as well as a new record warmest daily min in Feb (11.1 C). Feb 2019 retains records for warmest daily max.

It was also tied warmest winter season at Toronto (+1.30) tied 2001-02. 

CET winter was tied 4th warmest (6.5 C) as January was close to average (Dec 2023 mild). Winters warmer are 2015-16 (6.8 C), 1868-69 (6.7 C) and 1833-34 (6.6 C). 2023-24 tied 1988-89 and 2006-07. 

http://metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_ranked_seasonal.txt

Another new CET record was warmest 31d interval all 31 days within Jan-Feb, set 21 or 22 Jan to 20 or 21 Feb (8.3 C) ... previous record was 8.0 C set 14 Jan to 13 Feb 2002. The warmest January (calendar) for CET is 7.6 (1916). Their warmest Dec is also 2015 (9.6 C). 

Last call before I start up my penalizer. 

=== === .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Feb 2024 ==== .......... === ===

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL

wxallannj _______________120 _118 _146 __ 384 __ 94 _142 _ 66 __ 302 _ 686 __ 112 _176 _186 __474 _____1160

rainsucks _______________184 _194 _178__ 556 __103 _104 _ 56 __ 263 _ 819 __ 34 _110 _148 __ 292 _____ 1111

RodneyS ________________ 68 _108 _120 __ 296 __129 _120 _ 94 __ 343 _ 639 __110 _144 _178 __432 ____ 1071

so_whats_happening ___ 122 _112 _138 __ 372 __ 99 _128 _ 60 __ 287 _ 659 __ 94 _128 _162 __ 384 ____ 1043 

DonSutherland1 _________116 _110 _130 __ 356 __120 _134 _ 74 __ 328 _ 684 __ 98 _158 _102 __ 358 _____1042

___ Consensus _________ 112 _100_122 __ 334 __120_138 _ 64 __322 _ 656 __ 56 _158 _158 __ 372 _____1028

hudsonvalley21 _________126 _ 98 _124 __ 348 __104 _126 _ 78 __ 308 _ 656 __ 38 _132 _182 __ 352 _____1008

BKViking ________________130 _116 _136 __ 382 __ 86 _126 _ 52 __ 264 _ 646 ___58 _158 _138 __ 354 _____1000

RJay ____________________ 131 _114 _131 __ 376 __ 97 _ 110 _ 16 __ 223 _ 599 __ 76 _133 _119 __ 328 ____927 (974)*

wxdude64 _______________54 _ 66 _ 92 __ 212 __ 112_ 122 _ 74 __ 308 _ 520 __ 70 _130 _172 __ 372 _____ 892

Scotty Lightning _________96 _ 60 _ 58 __ 214 __ 58 _130 _ 68 __ 256 _ 470 __ 42 _160 _184 __ 386 _____ 856

Normal __________________ 66 _ 50 _ 68 __ 184 __ 78 _134 _ 58 __ 270 _ 454 __ 32 _150 _174 __ 356 _____ 810

Stormchaser Chuck _____ 68 _ 98 _128 __ 294 __110 _ 00 _ 00 __ 110 _ 404 __ 62 _190 _136 __ 388 _____ 792

Rhino16 __________________50 _ 22 _ 36 __ 108 __103 _118 _ 56 __ 277 _ 385 __ 48 _158 _156 __ 362 _____ 747

Tom _____________________62 _ 44 _ 68 __ 174 __ 46 _ 104 _ 50 __ 200 _ 374 __ 42 _160 _152 __ 354 _____ 728

Roger Smith _____________44 _ 24 _ 32 __ 100 __ 98 _ 95 __ 22 __ 215 _ 315 __ 20 __ 98 _ 66 __ 184 _____ 499

* (note: tracking RJay raw score before Feb late penalty of 47 pts ... at current scoring, would not affect ranks)

Persistence _____________124 _134 _158 __ 416 __ 10 _ 72 _ 02 __ 084 _ 500 __ 00 _ 50 _ 84 __ 134 _____ 634

-----------------------------------

Best forecasts

* tied wins (one per * ) 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL 

wxallannj ________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 0 

rainsucks ________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb 

RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan

so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 

DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 

___ Consensus _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 

hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 

BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 

RJay _____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ______ 0 

wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 

Scotty Lightning _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 

Normal __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 

Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 0 

Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ______ 0 

Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0  

Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 

EXTREmE  FORECAST  REPORT 

so far, a total of 12 qualified (ten for warmest, two for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0. 

* tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col.

FORECASTER ________________ Jan _ Feb ____ TOTAL __ adj for ties

rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 ____ 6-0

wxdude64 ____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 ____ 1-0

DonSutherland1 _______________0-0 _ 1-0 ____ 1-0

Scotty Lightning ______________ 0-0 _ 2*-0___ 2-0 ___ 1.5 - 0

RodneyS ______________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 ____ 1-0

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 ____ 1-0

wxallannj ______________________0-0 _ 1*-0____ 1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0

___ Consensus ________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 ____ 1-0

BKViking ______________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 ____ 0-1

Stormchaser Chuck ___________ 0-2 _ 0-0____ 0-2

RJay, Tom, RogerS, Rhino16, swh __0-0 _ 0-0____ 0-0

+3.6 _ +4.5 _ +6.2 __ +7.0 _ +4.5 _ +3.0 __ +1.5 _ -1.0 _ -0.4

Those mystery snow forecasts must be based on the premise that the arctic cold front, trailing a broken squall line now near Albany by 1-2 hours, will develop a significant line of convection too, and that will be all snow falling at high rates for an hour or so. Otherwise I would have expected a dry interval when temperatures begin to fall starting after a few flurries along the cold front, and sunny skies all day tomorrow with brisk westerly winds and possibly a few snowflakes falling from broken cumulus. I would guess 0.1" to 0.3" could fall in some places with the arctic front and upslope effects in parts of VT could increase it to 2" locally. 

Squall line could be hit or miss, potential for brief gusts to 60 but some places could top out at 40. 

Developing squall line not intense at moment, runs Utica-Binghamton-wCXY. Will be near PA-NJ border by 7-8 pm and NYC around 9 pm.

There may be an arctic front about an hour behind it then temps will really begin to fall fast. 

Possible gusts to 55 mph but 35-45 more probable for most. 

Developing squall line not intense at moment, runs Utica-Bingamton-wCXY. Will be near PA-NJ border by 7-8 pm.

There may be an arctic front about an hour behind it then temps will really begin to fall fast. 

Re Quebec wildfires of spring 2023 lasting into June, the area where fires broke out contains a few roads that extend in various directions from Chibougamau (that's the weather station about halfway from James Bay to western Labrador). It's a town of about 8,000 people and along those roads are a few other places with 1-2 k populations. There is a bit of active forestry but as some pointed out, a lot of the timber that far north is unsuitable for any kind of commercial forestry. Except within 10 miles of the sparse road network, it is also inaccessible. 

Disclaimer: I am not a big conspiracy theorist in general, but the fact is, several known cases of arson leading to forest fires have been prosecuted successfully in various Canadian provinces. There is a lot of suspicion in Canada that the enormous Fort mac (Alberta) blaze in 2016 started from a campfire on a forest access road about 25 miles west of t e city, whether that was human carelessness or deliberate arson is not known. No suspects were ever identified. The Quebec fires all appeared to start in a short 24-hour time window in locations near those roads I mentioned. It was warm and dry for a week or two and not particularly windy but satellite imagery showed no convection, and weather maps showed no frontal activity. A theory of arson as cause is perhaps more plausible here than in the western Canada wildfire seasons of recent years where you had all the usual natural factors in place. Even so, one or two of those fires were deliberately started. 

Who does this? Two groups would top the list. One would be regional residents hoping to start fires to get crew work. Another would be either random mentally ill people or (if you perceive a difference) radical eco-freaks who think perhaps a catastrophic wildfire outbreak would "bring public awareness of climate change" (not to mention actually creating climate change). A third less likely group would be terrorist cells attacking our two national economies (wildfires don't do much good to the economy, BC for example spent almost a billion dollars fighting fires in 2021 alone). 

Another possible cause of wildfires is sparking from passing trains. This has been identified as a possible cause of the burndown of Lytton BC on June 30, 2021 during the heat dome episode. But there are no railways in the parts of Quebec where fires broke out. I found it particularly suspicious that about a dozen separate fires all started in the same 24-hour period in Quebec last spring near road systems. This is bound to become a trend because even if only about one in two thousand people are susceptible to the various causal factors to act as arsonists, that translates to 5,000 people in a state or province with ten million people. That's a lot of potential arsonists. Now success in this sort of enterprise would depend on some knowledge of weather factors and forest dynamics. A potential arsonist who went out in the wrong weather or forest fire risk situation would probably leave no evidence of their efforts. 

When people say we can expect more of this, do they mean more climate stress or more social factors as the actual cause? If it is a 50-50 blend of both we are really in trouble. 

(two additional causes of wildfires, slash burning efforts that get out of control, and power line arcing in high winds, more of a problem in California in part due to misguided laws allowing full tree growth under power lines, something not done in most other jurisdictions where we clear cut power line corridors for this reason). 

I will bet it gets past 70F during breaks today and late cold front looks very powerful, reports of tornado(s) near Kalamazoo and in eastern IL earlier. Possible line squall situation for PA could extend into your forum coverage area too, timing around 6 pm to 9 pm, but TRW+ potential begins earlier (noon to 3 pm). Very strong winds and temperature drops into 20s (15F nw). Could be brief outbreaks of blowing snow in mountains. This is really moving along fast, cold front passed my location on monday morning around 12z. Temp fell from 50F to 25F and that was in an early phase of the storm's development.  

Would not be surprised to see a tornado watch in VA and NC. 

Watch for line squall and wind damage potential by late Wed followed by a crazy drop in temps. Tornado reports from near Kalamazoo in s mi.  

Cold front looking very powerful, strong tornado outbreak in southern michigan overnight ... fronts will arrive in NYC region around 8 pm with second fropa around 11 p to midnight, I am surprised there isn't a thread started for this event as well as sharp temperature falls overnight into Thursday, could see 60s to 20s and 15-20 F in far nw portions of forum? Not much if any temperature recovery during a sunny leap year day. Upstate NY, parts of PA, s ON wind damage followed by heavy snow squalls and a drop from near 70F into teens or even single digits.  

Reminds one of that temperature drop on Dec 23, 2022 (58 to 8 F). Not sure if cold front will beat midnight to remove some of the potential from Feb 29 being the largest drop possible in a calendar day (in this situation), will be so in eastern New England and possibly Long Island. 

It's going to be ugly when this surge of warm air gets over the 30-40 inch snowpack in eastern Nova Scotia. 

Context for today's possible near-record warm temperatures: 

Record max for NYC (Feb 28) is 67F (1976). It was 56F in 1878 and 1880, 62F in 1903, before eventual record in 1976. The record high min of 47F was set in 1903, 1910 and 2017.

If warm temperatures continue past midnight: 

Record max for NYC (Feb 29) is 69F (1880). Since then, 66F (1976) and 61F (2016). 

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

Deadline is 06z Mar 1st. (late Thursday evening in EST) 

I will open March contest now, and will remember the above forecast is posted if I don't see an update.

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Name the 5 good winters since 2014 BC

1888, 1899, 1922, 1960, 2010

Final scoring for February 2024

__FORECASTER __________________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west___TOTALS

rainsucks ________________________ 92 _ 98 _ 78 __ 268__ 61 _ 44 _ 56 __ 161 _ 429 _ 34 _ 60 _ 90 __184 ____ 613

wxallannj _________________________42 _ 56 _ 76 __ 174 __ 26 _ 56 _ 50 __ 132 _ 306 _ 52 _100 _ 96 __248 ____ 554

hudsonvalley21 __________________ 42 _ 40 _ 60 __ 142 __ 18 _ 48 _ 60 __ 126 _ 268 _ 34 _ 92 _ 86 __ 212 ____ 480

BKViking _________________________36 _ 40 _ 52 __ 128 __ 08 _ 52 _ 38 __ 098 __226 _ 48 _ 98 _ 82 __ 228 ____ 454

DonSutherland1 _________________ 40 _ 48 _ 62 __ 150 __ 42 _ 42 _ 30 __ 114 _ 264 _  62 _ 70 _ 46 __ 178 ____ 442

Scotty Lightning _________________ 32 _ 36 _ 42 __ 110 __ 00 _ 60 _ 48 __ 108 _ 218 __ 22 _100_ 94 __ 216 ____ 434

___ Consensus __________________34 _ 40 _ 54 __ 128 __ 20 _ 44 _ 24 __ 108 _ 236 _ 34 _ 76 _ 86 __ 196 ____ 432

RJay _____________________________ 52 _ 56 _ 72 __ 180 __ 28 _ 44 _ 18 __ 090 _ 270 _ 62 _ 70 _ 66 __ 198 _(468)

RJay _____ (-10%) ________________ 47 _ 50 _ 65 __ 162 __ 25 _ 40 _ 16 __ 081 _ 243 _  56 _ 63 _ 59 __ 178 ____ 421

RodneyS _________________________ 18 _ 54 _ 52 __ 124 __ 33 _ 44 _ 44 __ 121 _ 245 __ 18 _ 44 _ 90 __ 152 ____ 397

so_whats_happening ____________ 40 _ 46 _ 68 __ 154 __ 47 _ 34 _ 00 __ 081 _ 235 _ 40 _ 44 _ 66 __ 150 ____ 385

Tom ______________________________ 24 _ 32 _ 54 __ 110 __ 12 __ 32 _ 12 __ 056 _ 166 _ 16 _ 82 _ 84 __ 182 ____ 348

___Normal _______________________ 12 _ 16 _ 32 __ 060 __ 00 _ 44 _ 18 __ 062 _ 122 _ 02 _ 70 _ 94 __166 ____ 288

wxdude64 ________________________ 08 _ 28 _ 40 __ 076 __ 12 _ 26 _ 12 __ 050 _ 126 _ 14 _ 48 _ 96 __ 158 ____ 284

Stormchaser Chuck ______________ 12 __16 _ 32 __ 060 __ 28 _ 00 _ 00 __ 028 _ 088 _ 42 _ 90 _ 56 __ 188 ____ 276

Rhino16 ___________________________ 00 _ 00 _ 16 __ 016 __ 05 _ 20 _ 16 __ 041 _ 057 _ 04 _ 66 _100__ 170 ____ 227

Roger Smith _______________________00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 05 _ 00__ 005 _ 005 _ 20 _ 94 _ 66 __ 180 ____ 185

___ Persistence __ (Jan 2024) _____ 58 _ 78 _ 96 __ 232 __ 10 _ 34 _ 00 __ 044 _ 276 _ 00 _ 50 _ 74 __ 124 ____ 400

===================================

Extreme forecast report

DCA, NYC, BOS _ three wins for Rainsucks with highest forecasts. 

ORD _ Also a win for Rainsucks with highest forecast.

ATL _ A win for Scotty L with highest forecast.

IAH _ A win for hudsonvalley21 with highest forecast.

DEN _ A win for DonSutherland1 with highest forecast.

PHX _ A loss for BKViking and a win wxallannj and Scotty L with next highest forecasts. 

SEA _ Did not qualify as an extreme forecast.

I always figure high pressure will sit over deep snow packs in late winter, and there is a lot of snow on the ground in central to eastern Quebec and Atlantic Canada, especially eastern NS and PEI. I would say watch for signals around 10-15 March for best chances of that one (perhaps) final event.

4.3" fell at Springfield, IL, 3.3" STL. 

Looks a bit better now, will go 2-4, did you see how 12z GFS run ends? A very cold shot after a few milder days. Could be a period to watch (early march). 

I am hoping for five of these to help my snowfall forecast. Edited my forecast re WV. 

This won't shift north (of 18z GFS) and you'll get 2.5" to 4.5" (4-6" WV mtns). 

Unless it tracks n of current guidance, I can only see 0.8-1.5" potential in metro NYC, 2-4" se PA- cNJ and 3-5" md-DC-nVA-DE. Will take a look Friday p.m. at performance in midwest to see if I would adjust. 

22 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

If answered already then sorry but for DC proper what is onset  and end time?

Seeing 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. on latest guidance. could flurry to 8 a.m.

_ Tracking anomalies ...

___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

__ (anom Feb 1-14) ______ +6.4 _ +7.1 _ +6.2 __+12.1 _ +5.7 _ +4.6 __ +5.1 _ -2.3 _ +0.9

__ (p anom Feb 29) ______ +2.5 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +6.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __+3.0 _ -1.0 _ +1.5

___ (anom Feb) ___________+4.4 _ +4.2 _ +3.4 _ +10.7_ +4.6 _ +4.2 __+4.9 _ +1.5 _ +0.3

___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

Snowfall to date ___________ 8.0 __ 7.5 __ 9.7 ____ 21.2 _ 22.6 _ 59.6 ___ 29.1 _ 0.0 _ 36.2