Roger Smith

Is there a list of top Chicago snowstorm amounts on 1-d and 2-d basis? I know 1-26/27-1967 is tops but what does the top ten look like? 

Scoring is adjusted now that DCA finalized their report at +3.8 (all but one scored four points higher as a result). 

 

Euro on a definite Chicago blizzard track there. It's not a model to over-deepen at 96-120h so would take its 975 mb central pressure, factor in lower GFS and go around 972, all tracks give IN and michigan a snowstorm too. STL may claw back some of that 54" after all (now back into 10-15 range). 

The GFS track looks like 30-40 cm potential for Toronto and 40-60 cm western end of L Ontario. STL went from 54" to 2" -- but it's early days yet. I can't see it  moving any more to east now, track could edge back west. 

Snow situation much improved here now, 10" fell on Saturday and another 1-2" today, 15-20" reported in alpine ski areas. Full operations possible for first time this winter here. Temp around 28 F. 

I looked at all the guidance and wondered if perhaps the eventual solution is a very strong low a bit further east like a Euro track with GFS intensity running up into Lake huron rather than Lake michigan. That would be even more similar to 1-26-1978 and would bring heaviest snow and intense blizzard conditions into Indiana and lower michigan although it would still be an extreme event for IL and WI. Would not be anywhere near 54" of snow for STL, perhaps 10-15", the max snowfalls on my proposed track (at GFS intensity) would be 30-40 inches from about s IL to GRR to n lower michigan. All it takes to shift east is a deeper dive of vorticity into TX and recurve into e/c AR and w KY-s IL then n.n.e., 960 low near LAN instead of GRB. 

In weather history, L huron is of course a magnet for deep lows, beside 1-26-78 there was also 11-09-1913, but I suppose if analogs for further west are sought, how about Nov 1, 1991? 

I will go with Plymouth to Newport to Groton sharp cutoff, coastal CT will see a lot more falling snow than measured snow on ground, like 2" reports after perceived 5-8" falls, and even north to BOS there will be snow stickage issues, will guess 5.5" BOS storm reported total, but expect reports of 8-12" not far away, storm jacks 15"-18" near (n-n.e. of) Worcester possibly almost to Nashua, Tolland 9", 40/70 13". 

 

Strange balance of governing factors in play, quite a cold high will get over central Quebec by early Saturday but it's further north than optimal arctic high position for east coasst snowstorm, even so, uppers do not favor very strong marine inflow. Sort of like two prize fighters staying in their respective corners throwing menacing punches to indicate hostility. Do they come to blows? If so where? 

I am guessing a middle solution which favors a stronger than normal gradient of snowfall outcomes, from near zero at JFK to near 8 inches in lower hudson valley. Would say 1.8" for NYC. As some have said, a lot of falling snow, 75% of it possibly melting on contact, in parts of New York City. A bit of top up to amounts on Sunday p.m. when low has shifted far enough east. 

I was thinking 14-18 earlier, now perhaps 18-24 inch potential in BOS n, w. It keeps developing off the coast for about 18 hours. You do want the north trend to stop today, think it will. 

 

06z GFS slower and closer to Long Island. Would expect it to shift rain-snow line to about ISP-JFK but also heavier snow potential n/w suburban areas. 

 

I should perhaps put the work into the forecasts too.

 

Snow drought continues up this way, just a frozen 1-3 inches around my elevation and bare ground in Columbia valley, usually there would be 1-2 feet here and 6-10 inch base in the valley. Golf courses are open in valleys further west. On NYD it was near 60F in Vancouver BC and 63F was reached on Dec 29 at SEA. Winter? I don't see it around here. 

Welcome back everyone, you'll find all 2023 contest scoring and a historical record of the contest going back to earliest days of American Weather Forum (2013 to 2023) in the DEC 2023 thread. 

We now venture forth into the great unknown of 2024 with clean slates and keen for the challenge. 

 

Table of forecasts for January 2024

 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Stormchaser Chuck _____ +4.5 _ +4.2 _+3.4 __ +2.0 _+4.8 _+4.4 __+0.5 _-1.0 _-2.0

rainsucks ________________+2.7 _ +3.1 _ +3.2 __ +4.0 _ +1.5 _+2.0 __+2.5 _+1.5 _+1.1

BKViking ________________ +2.0 _ +2.1 _ +2.4 __ +2.2 _ +0.8 _+1.3 __+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.2

RJay _____________________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +2.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __+0.5 _+0.5 _+1.0

hudsonvalley21 _________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___+0.4 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 __+1.3 _+2.0 _-0.8

so_whats_happening ____ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ -1.3 _ -0.8 _ -1.0 __ -1.2 _ -1.8 _ -1.2

wxallannj ________________ +1.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 __ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ +1.2 __ -1.5 _ -2.2 _ -1.5

___ Consensus __________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 __ +1.1 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 __ +0.4 _ -0.1 _ +0.4

DonSutherland1 _________ +1.1 __+1.4 _ +1.6 __ +2.2 _ -0.1 _ -0.2 __ -0.3 _ -0.4 _+1.2

Scotty Lightning _________ +0.5 _-0.5 _ -1.0 __ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _-0.5

Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS ________________ -0.2 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 __ +1.3 _ -1.7 _ -0.5 ___ -3.1 _ -1.0 _ -1.6

Rhino16 __________________ -0.2 _ -0.6 _ -0.8 __ +1.0 _ -0.4 _ 0.0 ___ -0.7 _ -0.6 _ +1.2

wxdude64 _______________ -0.4 _ +0.2 _ +0.8 __ +1.1 _ -0.7 _ -1.1 ___ -1.3 _ -1.9 _ +0.2

Roger Smith _____________ -0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.2 __ +1.0 _ -1.0 _ +0.9 __ +3.5 _ +3.8 _ +4.5

Tom _____________________ -0.8 _ -1.1 __ -1.1 ___ -2.2 _ -1.9 _ +0.1 ___ +0.2 _ +0.1 _ +0.6

 

Persistence _____________ +4.0 _ +5.5 _ +5.1 ___ +8.6 _+2.6 _+1.9 __ +6.2 _+4.7 _+3.5

____________________

color codes are used for warmest and coldest forecasts (not including Persistence) 

Consensus for 14 forecasts is average of 7th and 8th ranked. 

 

Results are now final as no further activity since last table posted. 

Congrats to yotaman, contest winner, and tae laidir from boards.ie, a very close second place. 

Ties in scoring are broken by order of entry as shown in table above. 

I have added ranks to table. There is an overall ranking (excluding non-entrants such as "expert forecasts" and contest consensus values) and a ranking within your own forum since three participated. 

(all info in previous post) 

The history of the contest (with personal best scores)

Before 2013, the contest was managed by a number of people including but not limited to Chicago Storm, mallow and Ellinwood. In 2013 I began to score the contest, although there was no max-60 rule and just six stations until 2014. In 2014 the three western locations were offered as "optional" and the scores were not combined. Contest scoring reports were separated into two groups (original six and western three), but by 2017 the scores were combined so total scoring was out of 900 each month.

 

In 2013, RodneyS was the annual contest winner and DonSutherland1 was third. We used to have a considerably larger contest field of 30-40 lasting to about 2017, and some who have departed are long-time members still active, others have left Am-Wx or at least are now operating under a different username). I have added results from 2013, bearing in mind, totals are out of 600, not 900 (no western stations yet) ...

 

month _______ winning score (/600) _____ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN ___________ 452 _Mallow, 448 midlo snow maker __ 436 RodneyS

FEB ___________ 512 __ Ineedsnow ______ Don Sutherland1 __ 492

MAR _____________ 457 __ wxdude64

APR ___________ 466 __Sacrus  __________ RodneyS _ 462 _____ no snowfall contest winter 2012-13

MAY _____________ 534 __ Isotherm _520 Ellinwood __ 506 BKViking (tied OhLeary) __ severe storm bonus contest, subjective post-mortem*

___ ___ ____ ____ _____ ______ _______ ________ __________ __________ *pottercounty, Ellinwood, MNT, ChIcago Storm were mentioned as best

JUN ___________ 556 __ Roger Smith _ 550 Mallow _ 546 Midlo Snow Maker 

JUL ___________ 460 __ Mallow, 438 Sacrus __ 424 wxdude64

AUG ___________530 __ UncleW __ 524 Chicago Storm __ 522 Roger Smith

SEP ___________ 538 __ MN_Transplant __ four others, then 472 _ SD (Scotty L nowadays) 

OCT __________ 544 __ forkyfork ________522 _BKViking tied 4th __ Midlo Snow Maker won seasonal max contest for 6 locs (RodneyS t2nd w UncleW)

NOV __________ 470 __ RodneyS ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year

DEC ___________448 __ MetallicWx366 ___ DonSutherland1 _ 392 

__ Winner of 2013 contest (combined score) was RodneyS (5215) with Midlo Snow Maker second at 4967, DonS 3rd at 4851. No extreme forecast tracking yet.

 

In 2014, although scores were not combined, I have added them and found these monthly wins ( was going to place numbers in brackets to represent scoring if a max-60 rule was in effect but could find few cases of revisable scores, a few such low scoring months exist but those with increased scores did not come very close to winning any month): ___ note your personal best score is also tracked even if you didn't win that month.

month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN ___________ 700 __ Roger Smith

FEB ___________ 558 __ midlo snow maker ___ Don Sutherland1 __ 532

MAR _____________ 677 __ Don Sutherland1

APR ___________ 802 __Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Mallow 798 ) ___ midlo snow maker won snowfall contest (Tom t4 best of current forecasters)

MAY _____________ 736 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Isotherm 728 )

JUN ___________ 810 __ Mallow ___________ Roger S _ 808 ... hudsonvalley21 _ 794

JUL ___________ 592 __ Roger Smith (also Cpick79 (N of Pike) tied 592)

AUG __________ 608 __ Don Sutherland1

SEP ___________ 742 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ Don Sutherland1 and BKViking _ 716

OCT __________ 584 __ wxallannj (600) ___ Damage in Tolland won seasonal max contest (RodneyS 2nd)

NOV __________ 609 __ Roger Smith (627) ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year

DEC __________ 592 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ wxallannj _ 462 

__ Winner of 2014 contest (combined score) was Roger Smith (7195 would be 7213 now) while DonS totalled 7186. This close finish was not recorded at the time and Don was close to top of western scoring. Roger Smith also won the extreme forecast award (14-2). 

 

2015 _ scores now combined making this project a lot simpler to navigate ...

 

month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

 

JAN __________ 656 __ Isotherm __________ Tom _ 542

FEB ________ about 500* __ DonS ... ______ __ __ BKViking won snowfall contest for winter on a different scoring system

MAR __________ 507 __ Absolute humidity ____ DonS _ 503

APR _________796 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ wxallannj _ 756

MAY ________ 535 __ Stebo _______________ RodneyS _ 495

JUN ________ 596 __ wxdude64 

JUL ________ 765 __ DonSutherland1

AUG _______ 696 __ SD (Scotty L) __ (later realized SD was Scotty Lightning, not sure when changed)

SEP ________ 619 __ RJay ____________ __ __ SD (Scotty L) won seasonal max contest, Tom was 2nd. 

OCT _______ 714 __ Damage in Tolland ____ DonS 644

NOV _______ 774 __ ksammut _Ohwx 752 __DonS 726 ___ first four seasons contest winner Isotherm, DonS 4th (Mallow 2nd, msm 3rd)

DEC _______ 487 __ snoski14 _______________Roger Smith 454 (very mild Dec 2015, scoring quite low for most)

The highest combined score for 2015 was  6944 (Isotherm) and DonS was third at 6499. (D in T was 2nd).

Damage in Tolland also won extreme forecast award (11-0), RJay and RodneyS (5-2) were best of currently active forecasters. 

 

* Feb 2015 was a very cold month, low scoring ... I proposed a max 60 rule in play but it was left out for 2015 ... if it were used, DonS would have won with about 500 pts. The actual high score was 383 for mikehobbyst. 

_______________________

 

2016 _ The max-60 rule was still not adopted, and scoring for DEN and PHX was quite low in Feb 2016 but I couldn't find any potential winning scores among those who would have seen improved scores. No doubt our current forecasters would have scored higher if they alone had been boosted.

 

month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

 

JAN ______ 724 __ wxdude64

FEB ______ 534 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ RodneyS _ 446

MAR ______665 __Maxim ______________ DonS _ 637

APR ______ 710 __ wxallannj __________ __ __ winter snow contest won by Mallow, wxdude64 (5th) had high score of current active forecasters

MAY ______ 708 __ Don Sutherland1 

JUN ______ 702 __ Damage in Tolland __ RodneyS __ 658

JUL ______ 754*__ OHweather 754 _____ wxdude64, hudsonvalley21 _ t744 __ *(Consensus won wit 756)

AUG ______ 646 __ RJay

SEP ______ 698 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 632 ____ Summer max contest co-winners Maxim and Mallow, RodneyS was 3rd

OCT _____ 580 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 560 

NOV _____ 650 __ Don Sutherland1 ____ four seasons winners (tied) DonS and RJay

DEC _____ 631 __ BKViking (despite 6% late penalty) 

DonSutherland1  won the annual contest with 7139 points. Damage in Tolland won extreme forecast award 9-0. Among currently active forecasters, RodneyS in fourth (7-3) was top currently active.

 

2017 still went forward without max-60 scoring and contests were not yet fully merged. The January scores were very low in eastern and central regions, due to very mild conditions. If max-60 had been applied, they would have been higher by at least 100 in some cases. Top scores were as low as 17 and 20. A much smaller adjustment was required in February 2017, where ORD had a top score of 49, and it was recorded by the eventual contest winner RJay. March also needed adjusting and after a discussion, we used a modified version of max-60 scoring. Score adjustments shown here use the current version.

 

month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN _______ 452 (587) _ Don Sutherland1

FEB ________587 (598) _ RJay 

MAR _______518 (556) _ RodneyS _________ Mercurial won snowfall contest with RodneyS a close second.

APR _______ 628 __ RJay

MAY _______ 670 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ (Normal _ 702 actually "won" contest)

JUN _______ 694 __ wxallannj 

JUL ________778 __ RJay

AUG _______ 770 __ Don Sutherland1

SEP ________ 725 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 589 ____ CCM won seasonal max, one point ahead of BKViking

OCT _______ 645 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 627

NOV _______ 532 (556) _ RodneyS _______ RodneyS also won four seasons contest for 2017

DEC _______ 614 __ Don Sutherland1

The annual contest winner for 2017 was RJay, scoring 6417 (would have been closer to 6600 using current scoring). 

Extreme forecast winner was also RJay at 8-0. 

 

By late 2017 the contest turnout was beginning to look fairly similar to 2022-23, with perhaps three or four additional players. To drum up support I came up with the "Regional Rumble" concept for 2018 which compared scores of top forum sub-regional forecasters in a team format. This worked for a while but the overwhelming superiority of NYC and mid-Atlantic had a chilling effect and by end of 2018 we were pretty much back to square one, and the "Regional Rumble" went the way of the Edsel and robots who do housework. 

SD changed to Scotty Lightning during 2018, can't tell when as software changed username before I changed name in scoring tables. 

 

2018

As noted above, "Regional Rumble" took place in 2018. Best regional score (eastern, central, western) from any forecaster in sub-forum was used to determine format scoring. Also, max-60 finally made it to scoring system, so 2018 scores are directly comparable to more recent years.

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN _______ 640 _ Mercurial __________ Don Sutherland1 _ 536 ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/western

FEB _______ 449 _ so_whats_happening (despite 4% late pen) ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly

MAR ______ 684 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic. 

APR _______ 627 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC

MAY _______ 633 _ Roger Smith ________ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/West ___ snowfall contest winner Don Sutherland1

JUN _______ 744 _ BKViking (742 Tom) _ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC

JUL _______ 737 _ RodneyS _____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic 

AUG ______ 618 _ Don Sutherland1 ______ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC

SEP _______ 688 _ RJay _________________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC ___ seasonal max contest winner Don Sutherland1 

OCT _______ 650 _ Scotty Lightning ____ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic 

NOV _______ 527 _ Scotty Lightning (Normal 540) __ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly ___ Four Seasons winner wxallannj

DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _____________"Regional Rumble" winner Philly (annual NYC) ___ Annual contest winner Scotty L (6393)

_______________ _______________ _________________ _________________ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (15-1)

 

2019 _ Contest entrants now limited to current group plus Stebo who only entered first four, RJay also opted out for rest of year around May. Regional Rumble no longer in operation. Two guest appearances in 2019 by jakkelwx (July and Dec), and one each for tplbge (June), smerby (July), and Orangeburg Wx (Oct). 

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active 

JAN _______ 676 _ hudsonvalley21

FEB _______ 585 _ stebo (despite 3% late pen) _ RodneyS _ 550

MAR ______ 737 _ wxdude64 _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY)

APR _______ 707 _ RodneyS 

MAY _______ 658 _ RodneyS 

JUN _______ 792 _ wxdude64 

JUL _______ 686 _ Roger Smith 

AUG _______672 _ Scotty Lightning 

SEP _______ 600 _ Roger Smith ______ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj 

OCT _______ 682 _ Orangeburg Wx __ Don Sutherland1 586

NOV _______ 679 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS (consensus marginally better score, based on ranks not points in 2019) 

DEC _______ 601 _ wxallannj __________Annual contest winner wxdude64 (7114) (RodneyS 7106) ___ Extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (27-8)

... also Roger Smith had a larger total of best forecasts but with quite a few very low scores, and so ended up middle of annual scoring table. 

 

2020 _ The year began with the current group of regulars (except for so_whats_happening who had been active around 2016-18 but not in 2019 or 2020), and a number of new faces, some of who entered more than once during 2020. Brian5671 entered eight, jakkelwx seven, yoda four, and rclab, dwave, Maxim and Rhino16 one each. Maxim was quite regularly entered in contests around 2014 to 2017. 

 

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active 

JAN _______ 559 _ RodneyS

FEB _______ 701 _ RodneyS

MAR ______ 638 _ DonSutherland1 ___ snowfall contest winner wxallannj (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY)

APR _______ 595 _ DonSutherland1 ... (632_Normal was actual winner)

MAY _______ 726 _ RodneyS 

JUN _______ 726 _ RJay (despite 2% late penalty) 

JUL _______ 664 _ RJay 

AUG _______732 _ Roger Smith 

SEP _______ 794 _ RodneyS __________ seasonal max contest winner RodneyS, wxallannj was 2nd by one point.

OCT _______ 690 _ Yoda _____________ hudsonvalley21 _ 660

NOV _______ 579 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS

DEC _______ 730 _ DonSutherland1 ___Annual contest winner RodneyS (7223) __ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith 17-5 (RodneyS was 15-4). RJay at 13-0 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ had the best differential. 

 

2021 __ The year began with the current regular entrants participating. Deformation Zone entered six from July to Dec. Stormchaser Chuck appeared in only one (NOV), and had previously entered a few contests as "A few universes below normal" (I think) in previous years. 

The seasonal max contest ran in a separate thread in an effort to attract extra forecasts (none were submitted). The infamous heat dome struck and SEA had a seasonal max of 108! Despite missing that by 16 deg, wxallannj won the contest. Our highest forecast for SEA was 99F. At my own location, an all time max of 113 was recorded. 

 

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active 

JAN _______ 678 _ DonSutherland1 

FEB _______ 569 _ RodneyS

MAR ______  561 _ so_whats_happening and wxdude64 tied 

APR _______ 638 _ BKViking _________ snowfall contest winner RJay (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY)

MAY _______ 700 _ Tom _ (Normal 716 was actual winner) _ wxallannj 696 _ a close finish with different outcome relative to 1991-2020 normals announced during month

JUN _______ 609 _ Roger Smith _______ first contest with 1991-2020 values used. 

JUL _______ 680 _ RodneyS _ Normal 686 was actual winner

AUG _______736 _ Roger Smith 

SEP _______ 630 _ RJay (629 DonS) __ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj (separate thread).

OCT _______ 656 _ RJay (despite 1% late penalty)

NOV _______ 685 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner DonSutherland1 

DEC _______ 518 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner DonSutherland1 (7011)  RodneyS (6927)

__ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous year ... winner Roger Smith 16-3, RodneyS was 15-1, RJay at 12-0.

 

2022 __ The contest featured more regular appearances by Stormchaser Chuck who made eight appearances; George001 entered DEC to enter snowfall contest, and added temperatures. The highlight of the year was probably the highest annual totals to date. RodneyS had a very good second half of the year.

 

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active 

JAN _______ 682 _ wxdude64 

FEB _______ 690 _ DonSutherland1

MAR ______ 756 _ Tom

APR _______ 676 _ RJay _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY)

MAY _______660 _ DonSutherland1 _ (RJay 658 after 1% late penalty)

JUN _______ 718 _ Roger Smith 

JUL _______ 728 _ so_whats_happening

AUG _______682 _ Roger Smith 

SEP _______ 730 _ RodneyS ____ seasonal max contest winner RJay

OCT _______ 670 _ RodneyS

NOV _______ 618 _ BKViking ____ Four Seasons winner Rodney with DonSutherland1 only two points back iso

DEC _______ 740 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner Rodney S (7690) ... 2nd wxdude64 _ 7488 ... 3rd DonS _ 7462 (best totals in report so far) 

___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ (swh 11/12 contests, prorated score would be 7509). 

__ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous two years ... winner Roger Smith 16-7, RodneyS was 12-2, Stormchaser Chuck

from 8/12 contests made a good score of 9.5-1. (unlike previous reports 2022 includes a reduction for ties, comparable numbers are

18-7, 14-2, 10-1.) 

 

 

2023 __ The current contest year will be fully reported going forward and then this entire report will be moved to end of DEC thread. Stormchaser Chuck has continued to enter a few but not all contests, and swh has been somewhat occasional so far at 7/11 to NOV. 

Rhino16 became a new regular forecaster in March. Rainsucks and Terpeast have each entered one contest. Tom missed March due to injury and is doing a great job of gradually catching up to the pack (already past your host).

 

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active 

JAN _______ 554 _ DonSutherland1 

FEB _______ 674 _ Stormchaser Chuck __ RJay 657

MAR ______ 513 _ DonSutherland1 

APR _______ 652 _ wxdude64 _______ snowfall contest winner Scotty Lightning 

MAY _______700 _ tied wxallannj, hudsonvalley21 _ Consensus actually won with 720

JUN _______ 636 _ RodneyS 

JUL _______ 746 _ wxallannj

AUG _______722 _ DonSutherland1

SEP _______ 750 _ RodneyS

OCT _______690 _ Roger Smith _ (so_whats_happening 687 lost 7 pts to late pen)

NOV _______ 656 _ Rhino16 _____ wxallannj 648 _____ Don S wins four seasons contest, wxallannj second

DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _________________________ RJay (18-1) wins extreme forecast contest

______________________________________________________ Don S wins annual contest (7399), wxallannj second (7170)

 

 

Summary of contest wins, best scores 2014 to 2023

By end of 2023, 120 contests and 10 years of contests are now complete. This table will be updated into 2024 contest year. For each element scored, +field means additional wins only against current eleven regular players (not including Stormchaser Chuck or Rhino16), and that format also exists for last three groups (winter snowfall, summer max, extreme forecasts, four seasons _ nine years tracked) but no headings identify add-on values. A score of 0.5 indicates a tied result except for a conversion to best against current field from a tied win.

Best monthly score over ten years is shown in brackets beside forecaster name.

Wins in 2013 not counted in table, as formats were different. RodneyS won contest in 2013. 

 

FORECASTER _____ Wins (Mo) _+field__ total ___ Wins (Yr)_+field_total _ Snow _ Summer _ Extreme _ Four Seasons

DonSutherland1 (802) __ 21 _____ 8.5 ___29.5 ______ 3 _____ 1 ____ 4 ______ 1 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 2.5, 1, 3.5 __

RodneyS (794) __________19 ______ 4 _____23 _______ 3 _____ 0 ____ 3 ______2,1,3 ___ 1,2,3 ___ 0,1.5,1.5 ___ 4 ____

Roger Smith (808) ______14.5 ____ 2.5 ___ 17.0 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 6 ________ 0 ____

RJay (778) ______________ 11 ______ 3 _____14________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 1 ______ 2,0.5,2.5__0.5, 0, 0.5 __

wxallannj (770) __________7.5 ______3 ____ 10.5 ______0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 2 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____ 

wxdude64 (792) _________6.5_____ 0.5____ 7.0 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0,1,1 _____ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Midlo Snow Maker (746) __5 ______ --_____ 5 _______ 0 _____--_____ 0 _______ 1 _______0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

BKViking (744) ___________4.5 _____ 2.5 ___7.0 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______0,1,1 ______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Scotty L (SD) __ (744) ____ 4 ______ 0 _____ 4 _______ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ______ 1 _______ 1 ________ 0 ________ 0 ____

Maxim (698) ______________ 3 ______ --_____ 3 _______ 0 _____--______ 0 ______ 0 ______ 0.5 ______ 0 _______ 0 ____

so_whats_happening(728)_2.5*_____0 ____2.5*_______ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Tom (756) _________________ 2 ______ 1 _____ 3 ________ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0, 1, 1 ___ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Damage in Tolland (714) __ 2 ______ -- ____ 2 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 1 ________ 2 ________ 0 ____

rainsucks (725) ___________ 2 ______ --_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Stebo (712) _______________ 2 ______ --_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

hudsonvalley21 (794) _____ 1 ______ 1.5____ 2.5 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Mallow (810) ______________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______1.5 _______0 ________ 0 ____

StormchaserChuck (724) __1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0  ____

Isotherm (760) _____________1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 1 _____ --_____ 1 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____

OHweather (754) __________1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Absolute humidity _________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

ksammut (774) ____________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Snoski14 ___________________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Mercurial ___________________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ --_____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ 

Orangeburg Wx (682) ______ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ 

Yoda (690) _________________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

CPick79 (N of Pike) ________0.5 ____ -- ____ 0.5 _______ 0 _____ -- _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

mikehobbyst ________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Rhino16 _____________________1 _______--_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

CCM ________________________0 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

 

 

* so_whats_happening had a higher raw score by four points than Oct 2023 contest winner Roger S but 1% late penalties on seven of nine reduced it to three points lower. 

 

(following not counted against wins above)

Consensus (756) ___________ 2

Normal (720) _______________ 4

 

Note: Best scores 810 Mallow and 808 Roger Smith, also hudsonvalley21 (794) occurred in same month (June 2014). blazes556, not a monthly winner at any point, scored 778. 

April 2014 also produced notably good scores, DonS 802 and Mallow 798, and goobagooba, despite never winning a month, had a score of 772 (also 756 in June 2014). 

Forecasters with no listed high score have not broken 720 so far and a later search will hopefully uncover actual high scores, also cannot confirm some of lower entries for high score. 

 

Will continue this project to completion later in 2023, in time to move it to end of annual 2023 roundup. 

Somewhat sadly, I can see the field of forecasters slowly reducing to the current core, and you wonder if some are still active at all, but it is what it is. 

 

 UPDATED for DEC 2023 and FOUR SEASONS, ANNUAL and EXTREME FORECASTS 2023

 

So, I do need to check one or two details, for instance IAH is not confirmed yet, and DCA is an estimate despite a final CF6 report with 31st shown as missing data (but a daily climate report suggests a higher eventual anomaly than 3.8 as shown in CF6. It won't affect scoring to any great extent and I believe we can safely say congrats to Don Sutherland for another winning effort in 2023, and also good work wxallannj who did everything possible to overtake at the end ... also well done to hudsonvalley21 who got in ahead of consensus, and RJay for a solid year and a win in the extreme forecast section. 

I will post a bit more in a day or two and those minor scoring issues will be resolved in a later edit of what you see now. 

I will also update the contest historical report now in the Sep thread, and eventually bring it over to here. 

(update _ Jan 1st 21z _ IAH now updated, DCA still includes one missing day, not sure why as 31st climate data appears complete. But scores would all go up or down by same amount for any eventual DCA scoring)

Still in 2023 here and it still sucks. 

-0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 _ -1.0 _ +0.9 _ +3.5 _ +3.8 _ +4.5

Seventeen people believed there would be more snow than I did -- in itself, some kind of new record. Usually it's closer to four or five maybe.

I would probably take a few lower now just because we're still at zero and I thought Dec could produce a few inches, but otherwise, the pattern looks to be evolving in a good direction. Anyway, we are stuck with the original guesses, so over-performers are welcome. 

It's probably no coincidence but just as this improved look to models began, the warmest Pacific air started to move north through my part of the world instead of east into the prairies. That opens up the arctic where legitimate cold is starting to develop finally, and it has a chance to replace the Pacific flow at least over the northern half of the lower 48 (east of the Rockies). So while the details remain subject to ebb and flow, I believe the pattern is improving steadily and can support a return to winter in the east. Once it starts it could lock in for a while, pattern changes have been slow for a while now, and it would be fair play to see a long-duration cold spell replace what has been about four or five weeks of mild weather based on dominant Pacific flows.  

If you wanted to see trends in graphical form, this is a log of the coldest winter months at YCB in each decade; all ten cases are shown. 

 

Coldest calendar months of winters since 1940-41 at Cambridge Bay 

 

Decade ________-39.0 _-38.5_-38.0 _-37.5_-37.0 _-36.5_-36.0 _-35.5_-35.0 _-34.5_-34.0 _-33.5_-33.0 _-32.5_-32.0 _-31.5_-31.0 _-30.5_-30.0 _-29.5_-29.0 C (-30C = -22F)

1941-50 ____ 5432X0987654321 X9876543X10987X543210 9876543210 X87m54X21X98XX54321098765432109876X4321098765432109876A432109876543210 A=1940

1951-60 ____ 54X210987X43X109876543XX09m7X4310 98X65432109X765432109X765432109876X43210 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210

1961-70 ____ 543210 987654X21X98XX543210XmX64X098765432X09X7654321X98765432109876543210 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210

1971-80 ____ 543210 9X7643X10 9876543210 X8765432109XX65432m0987XXXX21098765432109876543210 9876 54321098X65432109876 5432 1098 7654 3210

1981-90 ____ 5432109876543X109876X32109876X432109876543XXmX10X87654321098764321X987643210 987654XX21098765432109876 5432 1098 7654 3210

1991-2000 _ 543210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98765XX2109X7654321X9876X432109m76543XX10 XX76543X10987654321098765432109876543210

2001-10 ____543210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98X654321XXX76X43210987m54321098X6543X10 98X654321098765432109876X43210987654321X

2011-20 ____543210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98765 432X09876543210 98 76 54 3210 98765432XX9876X4321XmXXX6543X10X87654321098765432109876543210

2021-23 ___ 543210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98765 432 1 0 9 876543210 9X765432109876 543210 9876X43X10 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 

(I will add 2024-2030 going forward, if the discussion by 2028 is long, I will reproduce the graph at a later point in the thread)

... a few of the data points above are identical but are shown 0.1 apart. 

... to remove graph discontinuity, unused numerals are sometimes removed, 5 or closest available is usually removed, to align data points

... median values are indicated by red symbols __  m  __

... it should be noted that 1940 (not in graph as X ) had a higher value (-29.5) indicated by A

I would say the changes in Canada's arctic climate are mostly to be seen in a longer "summer" interval, the snow-free portion of the year seems to be about two weeks longer at each end of the season in recent decades (let's say it has shifted from previous mid-June to mid-August to all of June, July and August in rough terms). The winters are not quite as severe on average and you do see more frequent (albeit brief) incursions of mild air masses, especially in the eastern arctic. I don't think we have reached a tipping point yet but of course this study is only based on weather and not sea ice which may be changing its distribution at a faster rate. 

Also to the point about Antarctica, southern hemisphere weather patterns do not always move in lock-step with northern hemisphere, so it would be quite possible to find different trends in the northern and southern polar temperature trends, or sea ice trends (not to say we have found those, but it would not surprise me if trends were not carbon copies). 

One trend I am anticipating but do not see starting yet, would be for greater snowfall in Canada's arctic if winters were to get significantly warmer. So far the increase at the locations studied is on the order of 2 C deg, and since they started off from very low values like -34 C, it is still a very cold and dry winter climate. Almost all of the snow that accumulates at Cambridge Bay occurs in October and November, then a second snowy interval can occur (less regularly) in late April to early June before the entire accumulation melts. Further east it's similar but you do see some ebb and flow in snow depth during mid-winter from a combination of milder spells and outer edges of Atlantic snowstorms. I should look at Iqualuit (Frobisher Bay) on Baffin Island to see if trends there show significant differences. It is a bit closer to the Atlantic and possibly could show different trends. 

I'm active on UK forum net-weather so over there, 2023 will be the second warmest year, last year (2022) was warmest, in the very long series of Central England Temperature data (1659-2023). Last year was 11.1 C, this year will be rounding off at 11.1 also but it's generally thought they will assign it second place based on second decimal values. 2014 is third in their records, and 2006 is fourth. It's a very similar record of steadily rising averages since about 1980. One of the warmer past intervals was around 1724 to 1739, years that are mostly a blank for North American record keeping. Coldest intervals were 1675 to 1709 (maunder minimum) and 1795 to 1823 (Dalton minimum). 1870s to 1910s were also quite cold.

Another similar feature of 2023 in UK (and Ireland) was despite overall warmth, not a particularly hot core of summer, with max temps around 90F in early to mid- June and September (which was their month to set a new record high average of 17.0 C). 

This past month in the UK started very cold but soon overcame that. You may recall an episode with heavy snow in Bavaria, the UK got a bit of snow then and sub-zero (C) temps, but the month warmed up quickly and averaged 7.0 C which will be around 15th warmest (like eastern US, 2015 is well out ahead of the rest, but unlike eastern US, most of the top ten Decembers are way back in their records, 1974 and 1934 are second and third, and so e of their top ten are in the 18th century.)

Also looking a bit closer to NYC, Toronto will record its fourth warmest year (possibly fifth, waiting for final Dec data), and also like NYC, a warm year but without any notable summer heat, annual max of only 91F (33C) occurred on June 2nd and again Sep 4th. Their long-term average for that statistic is 96F or about 35.5 C. I have tables of comparative NYC and Toronto data in my study in climate change section, quite often ranks will be similar, but you do find a few months that turn out relatively warmer at one or the other location in certain patterns. July 1916 and July 1921 were both considerably warmer (relative to normals) at Toronto, but periods in 1979 and 2003 (among others) were relatively warmer at NYC, storm tracks must have been between the two locations frequently in such years. 

This trend to bland, not-cold weather is not exactly what was feared from global warming, it's more like global blanding. I don't prefer it, but perhaps this is going to be the new normal, and weather forums will slowly empty out as people take up new hobbies, as tracking this sort of "muck" as they like to call it in the UK is a borefest of epic proportions. (rant over) (#make it stop) 

Okay, I've done a bit of work on winter severity index. The index is designed to score zero to 100 although it could go higher than 100. As snow is probably about 2/3 of the contribution to a winter's perceived severity, the temperature index is designed to run from 0 to 40, and the snowfall index from 0 to 80. 

Temperature index is derived from D-J-F  mean (in C deg), with 4.0 C being zero, and every rounded 0.2 C below that level being worth one point. The coldest winter (1917-18) scored 40, second coldest 1880-1881 and 1976-77 scored 35. Four winters scored zero. For snowfall the index value is the number of total inches, over the season, rounded to nearest integer. This part of the severity index scored from 2 (last winter) to 77 (1995-96).

I flagged * cases where more than 1/3 of winter snowfall came after meteorological winter ended, but this qualifier means little in terms of perception since people expect snow to fall into early spring anyway. The winter moving furthest up the severity index on basis of its march-april snowfalls was probably 1895-1896 which had only 29 index points at end of Feb (rank t124) and ended up with 63 to rank t37. (of 155 winters)

The index values are shown both in chronological order and in rank order. Ties for rank order are listed in their chronological order. 

One could probably tinker with this method and improve it, for example, the zero temp index for 2015-16 could be raised to 2 or even 5 because of a period of below normal temps in Feb, that was not matched in equally futile winters by average alone. 

Outliers include 1948-1949, a relatively mild winter with a large snowfall total (most of it in Dec 1948), and several cold dry winters like 1962-63 which may be recalled as more severe simply because of persistent cold.

It has not been too bad a run since 1992. The past 31 winters include ranks 1, 6, t9, t11, t16, t16, t24, 28, t45, t45, t53 _ eleven of 31 were in top sixty. Of course the other end of the table is well represented also, in a similar range we find ranks 155, 154, 152, 151, 150, 147, 146, t138, t133, t133, t124, t119, t110, t107, t107, t96, for a total of 16 of 31. Only four winters could be considered near average in winter severity (in past 31).

 

Winter Severity Index (1869 to 2023)

 

Winter _______DJF (C) _snow" _ Index values

1868-1869 ____ 1.54 _ 30.5 ____ 12 _ 31 __ 43**

1869-1870 ____ 1.39 _ 27.8 ____ 13 _ 28 __ 41* (29)

1870-1871 ____-0.63 _ 33.1 ____ 23 _ 33 __ 56

1871-1872 ____ -1.50 _ 12.1 ____ 28 _ 12 __ 40

1872-1873 ____-2.07 _ 60.2 ____30 _ 60 __ 90

1873-1874 ____ 1.11 __ 37.7 ____ 14 _ 38 __ 52

1874-1875 ____-2.45 _ 56.4 ____32 _ 56 __ 88

1875-1876 ____ 1.17 __ 18.8 ____ 14 _ 19 __ 33

1876-1877 ____-1.18 _ 40.3 ____ 26 _ 40 __ 66

1877-1878 ____ 0.72 __ 8.1 _____ 16 __ 8 __ 24

1878-1879 ____-1.54 _ 35.8 ____ 28 _ 36 __ 64 

1879-1880 ____ 3.28 _ 22.7 _____ 4 _ 23 __ 27* (19)

1880-1881 ____-2.92 _ 35.6 ____ 35 _ 36 __71

1881-1882 ____ 1.27 __ 31.4 ____ 14 _ 31 __ 45

1882-1883 ____-1.95 _ 44.1 ____ 30 _ 44 __74

1883-1884 ____-1.08 _ 43.1 ____ 25 _ 43 __68

1884-1885 ____-2.01 _ 34.4 ____ 30 _ 34 __64

1885-1886 ____-1.21 _ 20.8 ____ 26 _ 21 __ 47

1886-1887 ____-1.08 _ 31.9 ____ 25 _ 32 __ 57

1887-1888 ____-1.93 _ 45.5 ____ 30 _ 46 __ 76* (54)

1888-1889 ____ 0.31 _ 16.5 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35

1889-1890 ____ 3.51 _ 24.4 _____ 2 _ 24 __ 26* (9)

1890-1891 ____ 0.61 _ 28.8 ____ 17 _ 29 __ 46

1891-1892 ____ 1.87 _ 25.3 ____ 11 _ 25 __ 36* (23)

1892-1893 ____-2.18 _ 49.4 ____ 31 _ 49 __ 80

1893-1894 ____-0.07 _ 39.2 ____ 20 _ 39 __ 59

1894-1895 ____-1.18 _ 27.0 ____ 26 _ 27 __ 53

1895-1896 ____ 0.50 _ 46.0 ____ 17 _ 46 __ 63* (29)

1896-1897 ____ 0.21 _ 45.6 ____ 19 _ 46 __ 65

1897-1898 ____ 2.28 _ 21.2 _____ 9 _ 21 __ 30

1898-1899 ____-0.59 _ 55.9 ____ 23 _ 56 __ 79

1899-1900 ____ 0.60 _ 13.6 ____ 17 _ 14 __ 31

1900-1901 ____-0.44 __ 9.1 ____ 22 __ 9 __ 31

1901-1902 ____-0.30 _ 28.3 ____ 22 _ 28 __ 50

1902-1903 ____-0.28 _ 28.8 ____ 21 _ 29 __ 50

1903-1904 ____-2.86 _ 32.4 ____ 34 _ 32 __ 66

1904-1905 ____-2.45 _ 48.2 ____ 32 _ 48 __ 80

1905-1906 ____ 2.31 _ 20.0 _____ 8 _ 20 __ 28* (16)

1906-1907 ____-0.49 _ 53.2 ____ 22 _ 53 __ 75

1907-1908 ____ 0.40 _ 33.2 ____ 18 _ 33 __ 51

1908-1909 ____ 2.29 _ 20.4 _____ 9 _ 20 __ 29

1909-1910 ____-0.76 _ 27.2 ____ 24 _ 27 __ 51

1910-1911 ____-0.07 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44

1911-1912 ____-1.16 _ 29.5 ____ 26 _ 30 __ 56

1912-1913 ____ 2.45 _ 15.3 _____ 8 _ 15 __ 23

1913-1914 ____-0.48 _ 40.5 ____ 22 _ 41 __ 63

1914-1915 _____0.71 _ 28.8 ____ 16 _ 29 __ 45* (25)

1915-1916 ____-0.14 _ 50.7 ____ 21 _ 51 __ 72* (43)

1916-1917 ____-0.55 _ 50.7 ____ 23 _ 51 __ 74

1917-1918 ____-3.90 _ 34.5 ____40 _ 35 __ 75

1918-1919 ____ 2.17 __ 3.8 _____ 9 __ 4 ___ 13* (10)

1919-1920 ____-2.97 _ 47.6 ____35 _ 48 __ 83

1920-1921 ____ 1.14 _ 18.6 _____ 14 _ 19 __ 33

1921-1922 ____-0.81 _ 27.8 ____ 24 _ 28 __ 52

1922-1923 ____-1.65 _ 60.4 ____28 _ 60 __ 88

1923-1924 ____ 0.91 _ 27.5 ____ 15 _ 28 __ 43* (31)

1924-1925 ____ 0.30 _ 29.6 ____ 18 _ 30 __ 48

1925-1926 ____-0.50 _ 32.4 ____23 _ 32 __ 55

1926-1927 ____-0.46 _ 22.3 ____22 _ 22 __ 44

1927-1928 ____ 0.93 _ 14.5 ____ 15 _ 15 __ 30

1928-1929 ____ 1.00 _ 13.8 ____ 15 _ 14 __ 29

1929-1930 ____ 1.37 _ 13.6 ____ 13 _ 14 __ 27

1930-1931 ____ 0.41 __ 11.6 ____ 18 _ 12 __ 30

1931-1932 ____ 3.90 __ 5.3 _____ 0 __ 5 ___ 5

1932-1933 ____ 2.64 _ 27.0 _____ 7 _ 27 __ 34

1933-1934 ____-2.21 _ 52.0 ____ 31 _ 52 __ 83

1934-1935 ____-1.06 _ 33.8 ____ 25 _ 34 __ 59

1935-1936 ____-2.64 _ 33.2 ____ 33 _ 33 __ 66

1936-1937 ____ 2.66 _ 15.6 _____ 7 _ 16 __ 23

1937-1938 ____ 0.68 _ 15.1 ____ 17 _ 15 __ 32* (25)

1938-1939 ____ 1.29 _ 37.3 ____ 14 _ 37 __ 51

1939-1940 ____-0.82 _ 25.7 ____ 24 _ 26 __ 50

1940-1941 ____-0.13 _ 39.0 ____ 21 _ 39 __ 60* (41)

1941-1942 ____-0.20 _ 11.3 ____ 21 _ 11 __ 32

1942-1943 ____-0.61 _ 29.5 ____ 23 _ 30 __ 53

1943-1944 ____ 0.06 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44* (31)

1944-1945 ____-1.55 _ 27.1 ____ 28 _ 27 __ 45

1945-1946 ____-0.55 _ 31.4 ____ 23 _ 31 __ 54

1946-1947 ____ 0.86 _ 30.6 ____ 16 _ 31 __ 47

1947-1948 ____-1.79 _ 63.9 ____ 29 _ 64 __ 93

1948-1949 ____ 2.91 _ 42.0 _____ 5 _ 42 __ 47 

1949-1950 ____ 2.34 _ 14.0 _____ 8 _ 14 __ 22 

1950-1951 ____ 1.40 __ 9.3 ____ 13 __ 9 __ 22

1951-1952 ____ 1.98 _ 19.7 ____ 10 _ 20 __ 30* (23)

1952-1953 ____ 2.61 _  15.1 _____ 7 _ 15 __ 22

1953-1954 ____ 2.20 _ 15.8 _____ 9 _ 16 __ 25

1954-1955 ____ 0.29 _ 11.5 ____ 19 _ 12 __ 31

1955-1956 ____-0.37 _ 33.5 ____ 22 _ 34 __ 56

1956-1957 ____ 1.18 __ 21.9 ____ 14 _ 22 __ 36

1957-1958 ____-0.15 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66* (49)

1958-1959 ____-1.43 _ 13.0 ____ 27 _ 13 __ 40

1959-1960 ____ 1.54 _ 39.2 ____ 12 _ 39 __ 51* (32)

1960-1961 ____-1.00 _ 54.7 ____ 25 _ 55 __ 80

1961-1962 ____-0.18 _ 18.1 _____ 21 _ 18 __ 39

1962-1963 ____-2.03 _ 16.3 ____ 30 _ 16 __ 46

1963-1964 ____-0.19 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66

1964-1965 ____-0.16 _ 24.4 ____ 21 _ 24 __ 45

1965-1966 ____ 1.28 _ 21.4 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35

1966-1967 ____ 0.27 _ 51.5 ____ 19 _ 52 __ 71* (54)

1967-1968 ____-1.31 _ 19.5 ____ 27 _ 20 __ 47

1968-1969 ____-0.40 _ 30.2 ____ 22 _ 30 __ 52

1969-1970 ____-1.73 _ 25.6 ____ 29 _ 26 __ 55

1970-1971 ____-0.88 _ 15.5 ____ 24 _ 16 __ 40

1971-1972 ____ 1.09 _ 22.9 ____ 15 _ 23 __ 38

1972-1973 ____ 0.94 __ 2.8 ____ 15 __ 3 __ 18

1973-1974 ____ 0.85 _ 23.5 ____ 16 _ 24 __ 40

1974-1975 ____ 2.05 _ 13.1 ____ 10 _ 13 __ 23

1975-1976 ____ 0.33 _ 17.3 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35

1976-1977 ____-2.95 _ 24.5 ____ 35 _ 25 __ 60

1977-1978 ____-1.94 _ 50.7 ____ 30 _ 51 __ 81

1978-1979 ____-0.63 _ 29.4 ____ 23 _ 29 __ 52

1979-1980 ____ 0.89 _ 12.8 ____ 16 _ 13 __ 29

1980-1981 ____-0.68 _ 19.4 ____ 23 _ 19 __ 42* (33)

1981-1982 ____-0.75 _ 24.6 ____ 24 _ 25 __ 49* (39)

1982-1983 ____ 2.18 _ 27.2 _____ 9 _ 27 __ 36

1983-1984 ____ 0.70 _ 25.4 ____ 16 _ 25 __ 41* (29)

1984-1985 ____ 1.35 _ 24.1 ____ 13 _ 24 __ 37

1985-1986 ____-0.30 _ 13.0 ____ 22 _ 13 __ 35

1986-1987 ____ 0.48 _ 23.1 ____ 18 _ 23 __ 41

1987-1988 ____ 0.38 _ 19.1 ____ 18 _ 19 __ 37

1988-1989 ____ 1.09 __ 8.1 ____ 15 __ 8 __ 23

1989-1990 ____ 0.95 _ 13.4 ____ 15 _ 13 __ 28

1990-1991 ____ 2.88 _ 24.9 _____ 6 _ 25 __ 31

1991-1992 ____ 1.81 _ 12.6 _____ 11 _ 13 __ 24* (15)

1992-1993 ____ 0.57 _ 24.5 ____ 17 _ 25 __ 42* (30)

1993-1994 ____-1.57 _ 53.4 ____ 28 _ 53 __ 81

1994-1995 ____ 1.74 _ 11.8 _____ 11 _ 12 __ 23

1995-1996 ____-0.95 _ 75.6 ____ 25 _ 76 _ 101

1996-1997 ____ 2.14 _ 10.0 _____ 9 _ 10 __ 19

1997-1998 ____ 3.14 __ 5.5 _____ 4 __ 6 __ 10 *(5)

1998-1999 ____ 2.60 _ 12.7 _____ 7 _ 13 __ 20* (15)

1999-2000 ____ 1.23 _ 16.3 ____ 14 _ 16 __ 30

2000-2001 ____-0.25 _ 35.0 ____ 21 _ 35 __ 56

2001-2002 ____ 4.20 __ 3.5 _____ 0 __ 4 ___ 4

2002-2003 ____-1.55 _ 49.3 ____ 28 _ 49 __ 77

2003-2004 ____-0.86 _ 42.6 ____ 24 _ 43 __ 67

2004-2005 ____ 0.79 _ 41.0 ____ 16 _ 41 __ 57

2005-2006 ____ 1.84 _ 40.0 ____ 11 _ 40 __ 51

2006-2007 ____ 1.36 _ 12.4 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25* (19)

2007-2008 ____ 1.35 _ 11.9 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25

2008-2009 ____ 0.14 _ 27.6 ____ 19 _ 28 __ 47* (39)

2009-2010 ____-0.08 _ 51.4 ____ 20 _ 51 __ 71

2010-2011 ____-0.64 _ 61.9 ____ 23 _ 62 __ 85

2011-2012 ____ 3.62 __ 7.4 _____ 2 __ 7 ___ 9 (6 excl Oct)

2012-2013 ____ 1.59 _ 26.1 ____ 12 _ 26 __ 38

2013-2014 ____-0.60 _ 57.4 ____23 _ 57 __ 80

2014-2015 ____-1.42 _ 50.3 ____27 _ 50 __ 77* (58)

2015-2016 ____ 3.90 _ 32.8 _____ 0 _ 33 __ 33

2016-2017 ____ 2.95 _ 30.2 _____ 5 _ 30 __ 35* (25)

2017-2018 ____ 0.96 _ 40.9 ____ 15 _ 41 __ 56* (39)

2018-2019 ____ 1.27 _ 20.5 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35* (25)

2019-2020 ____ 2.88 __ 4.8 _____ 6 __ 5 __ 11

2020-2021 ____ 1.16 _ 38.6 ____ 14 _ 39 __ 53

2021-2022 ____ 1.75 _ 17.9 ____ 11 _ 18 __ 29

2022-2023 ____ 3.92 __ 2.3 ____ 0 ___ 2 __ 2

______________________________

* more than a third of snow was recorded mar-apr, figure in brackets was winter severity on mar 1st.  In winter 1887-88, 22 of the 47 snow points came in mar, but soon after end of "winter" and in 1981 extra snow fell just about as soon as "winter" ended, so these qualifiers are not all of equal significance, in terms of later addition to winter severity. And it should be kept in mind, winters not flagged for this also get a few of their snowfall points in mar-apr. I noted the situation for 2011-12 (half of snowfall total fell in Oct) but I didn't look for any cases where a snowy Nov distorted the picture, figuring that a heavy Nov snowfall probably came with cold that was not part of the indexed cold and perhaps that was offset by Feb being war in some cases.

** a conservative estimate was made for Dec 1868 (no data) based on weather maps available, winter severity could be closer to 50 if estimates are too conservative, as Dec 1868 looked fairly cold and snowy. (the snow estimate was only 5", temperature estimate was -1.2 C) 

 

Winter Severity in Order

 

Rank _ Winter _____ Temp _ Snow ____ Points __ TOTAL

 

_01 __ 1995-1996 ____-0.95 _ 75.6 ____ 25 _ 76 _ 101

_02 __ 1947-1948 ____-1.79 _ 63.9 ____ 29 _ 64 __ 93

_03 __ 1872-1873 ____-2.07 _ 60.2 ____ 30 _ 60 __ 90

_04t__ 1874-1875 ____-2.45 _ 56.4 ____ 32 _ 56 __ 88

_04t__ 1922-1923 ____-1.65 _ 60.4 ____ 28 _ 60 __ 88

_06 __ 2010-2011 ____-0.64 _ 61.9 ____ 23 _ 62 __ 85

_07t__ 1919-1920 ____-2.97 _ 47.6 ____ 35 _ 48 __ 83

_07t__ 1933-1934 ____-2.21 _ 52.0 ____ 31 _ 52 __ 83

_09t__ 1977-1978 ____-1.94 _ 50.7 ____ 30 _ 51 __ 81

_09t__ 1993-1994 ____-1.57 _ 53.4 ____ 28 _ 53 __ 81

_11t__ 1892-1893 ____ -2.18 _ 49.4 ____ 31 _ 49 __ 80

_11t __ 1904-1905 ____-2.45 _ 48.2 ____ 32 _ 48 __ 80

_11t__ 1960-1961 ____ -1.00 _ 54.7 ____ 25 _ 55 __ 80

_11t__ 2013-2014 ____-0.60 _ 57.4 ____ 23 _ 57 __ 80

_15 __ 1898-1899 ____-0.59 _ 55.9 ____ 23 _ 56 __ 79

_16t__ 2002-2003 ____-1.55 _ 49.3 ____ 28 _ 49 __ 77

_16t__ 2014-2015 ____-1.42 _ 50.3 ____ 27 _ 50 __ 77* (58)

_18 __ 1887-1888 ____-1.93 _ 45.5 ____ 30 _ 46 __ 76* (54)

_19t__ 1906-1907 ____-0.49 _ 53.2 ____ 22 _ 53 __ 75

_19t__ 1917-1918 ____ -3.90 _ 34.5 ____ 40 _ 35 __ 75

_21t__ 1882-1883 ____-1.95 _ 44.1 ____ 30 _ 44 __ 74 

_21t__ 1916-1917 ____-0.55 _ 50.7 ____ 23 _ 51 __ 74

_23 __ 1915-1916 ____ -0.14 _ 50.7 ____ 21 _ 51 __ 72* (43)

_24t__ 1880-1881 ____-2.92 _ 35.6 ____ 35 _ 36 __ 71

_24t__ 1966-1967 ____ 0.27 _ 51.5 ____ 19 _ 52 __ 71* (54)

_24t__ 2009-2010 ____-0.08 _ 51.4 ____ 20 _ 51 __ 71

_27 __ 1883-1884 ____ -1.08 _ 43.1 ____ 25 _ 43 __ 68

_28 __ 2003-2004 ____-0.86 _ 42.6 ____ 24 _ 43 __ 67

_29t__ 1876-1877 ____ -1.18 _ 40.3 ____ 26 _ 40 __ 66

_29t__ 1903-1904 ____-2.86 _ 32.4 ____ 34 _ 32 __ 66

_29t__ 1935-1936 ____-2.64 _ 33.2 ____ 33 _ 33 __ 66

_29t__ 1957-1958 ____ -0.15 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66* (49)

_29t__ 1963-1964 ____-0.19 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66

_34 __ 1896-1897 ____ 0.21 _ 45.6 ____ 19 _ 46 __ 65

_35t__ 1878-1879 ____-1.54 _ 35.8 ____ 28 _ 36 __ 64

_35t__ 1884-1885 ____-2.01 _ 34.4 ____ 30 _ 34 __ 64 

_37t__ 1895-1896 ____ 0.50 _ 46.0 ____ 17 _ 46 __ 63* (29)

_37t__ 1913-1914 ____-0.48 _ 40.5 ____ 22 _ 41 __ 63* (42)

_39t__ 1940-1941 ____-0.13 _ 39.0 ____ 21 _ 39 __ 60* (41)

_39t__ 1976-1977 ____-2.95 _ 24.5 ____ 35 _ 25 __ 60

_41t__ 1893-1894 ____-0.07 _ 39.2 ____ 20 _ 39 __ 59

_41t__ 1934-1935 ____-1.06 _ 33.8 ____ 25 _ 34 __ 59

_43t__ 1886-1887 ____-1.08 _ 31.9 ____ 25 _ 32 __ 57

_43t__ 2004-2005 ____ 0.79 _ 41.0 ____ 16 _ 41 __ 57

_45t__ 1870-1871 ____-0.63 _ 33.1 ____ 23 _ 33 __ 56

_45t__ 1911-1912 ____ -1.16 __ 29.5 ____ 26 _ 30 __ 56

_45t__ 1955-1956 ____-0.37 _ 33.5 ____ 22 _ 34 __ 56

_45t__ 2000-2001 ____-0.25 _ 35.0 ____ 21 _ 35 __ 56

_45t__ 2017-2018 ____ 0.96 _ 40.9 ____ 15 _ 41 __ 56* (39)

_50t__ 1925-1926 ____-0.50 _ 32.4 ____ 23 _ 32 __ 55

_50t__ 1969-1970 ____-1.73 _ 25.6 ____ 29 _ 26 __ 55

_52 __ 1945-1946 ____-0.55 _ 31.4 ____ 23 _ 31 __ 54

_53t__ 1894-1895 ____-1.18 __ 27.0 ____ 26 _ 27 __ 53

_53t__ 1942-1943 ____-0.61 _ 29.5 ____ 23 _ 30 __ 53

_53t__ 2020-2021 ____ 1.16 __ 38.6 ____ 14 _ 39 __ 53

_56t__ 1873-1874 _____ 1.11 __ 37.7 ____ 14 _ 38 __ 52

_56t__ 1921-1922 ____-0.81 _ 27.8 ____ 24 _ 28 __ 52

_56t__ 1968-1969 ____-0.40 _ 30.2 ____ 22 _ 30 __ 52

_56t__ 1978-1979 ____-0.63 _ 29.4 ____ 23 _ 29 __ 52

_60t__ 1907-1908 ____ 0.40 _ 33.2 ____ 18 _ 33 __ 51

_60t__ 1909-1910 ____-0.76 _ 27.2 ____ 24 _ 27 __ 51

_60t__ 1938-1939 ____ 1.29 _ 37.3 ____ 14 _ 37 __ 51

_60t__ 1959-1960 ____ 1.54 _ 39.2 ____ 12 _ 39 __ 51* (32)

_60t__ 2005-2006 ____ 1.84 _ 40.0 ____ 11 _ 40 __ 51

_65t__ 1901-1902 ____-0.30 _ 28.3 ____ 22 _ 28 __ 50

_65t__ 1902-1903 ____-0.28 _ 28.8 ____ 21 _ 29 __ 50

_65t__ 1939-1940 ____-0.82 _ 25.7 ____ 24 _ 26 __ 50

_68 __ 1981-1982 ____-0.75 _ 24.6 ____ 24 _ 25 __ 49* (39)

_69 __ 1924-1925 ____ 0.30 _ 29.6 ____ 18 _ 30 __ 48

_70t__ 1885-1886 ____-1.21 _ 20.8 ____ 26 _ 21 __ 47

_70t__ 1946-1947 ____ 0.86 _ 30.6 ____ 16 _ 31 __ 47

_70t__ 1948-1949 ____ 2.91 _ 42.0 _____ 5 _ 42 __ 47 

_70t__ 1967-1968 ____-1.31 _ 19.5 ____ 27 _ 20 __ 47

_70t__ 2008-2009 ____ 0.14 _ 27.6 ____ 19 _ 28 __ 47* (39)

_75t__ 1890-1891 ____ 0.61 _ 28.8 ____ 17 _ 29 __ 46

_75t__ 1962-1963 ____-2.03 _16.3 ____ 30 _ 16 __ 46

_77t__ 1881-1882 ____ 1.27 _ 31.4 ____ 14 _ 31 __ 45

_77t__ 1914-1915 ____ 0.71 _ 28.8 ____ 16 _ 29 __ 45* (25)

_77t__ 1944-1945 ____-1.55 _ 27.1 ____ 28 _ 27 __ 45

_77t__ 1964-1965 ____-0.16 _ 24.4 ____ 21 _ 24 __ 45

_81t__ 1910-1911 ____ -0.07 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44

_81t__ 1926-1927 ____-0.46 _ 22.3 ____ 22 _ 22 __ 44

_81t__ 1943-1944 ____ 0.06 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44* (31)

_84t__ 1868-1869 ____ 1.54 _ 30.5 ____ 12 _ 31 __ 43**

_84t__ 1923-1924 ____ 0.91 _ 27.5 ____ 15 _ 28 __ 43* (31)

_86t__ 1980-1981 ____-0.68 _ 19.4 ____ 23 _ 19 __ 42* (33)

_86t__ 1992-1993 ____ 0.57 _ 24.5 ____ 17 _ 25 __ 42* (30)

_88t__ 1869-1870 ____ 1.39 _ 27.8 ____ 13 _ 28 __ 41* (29)

_88t__ 1983-1984 ____ 0.70 _ 25.4 ____ 16 _ 25 __ 41* (29)

_88t__ 1986-1987 ____ 0.48 _ 23.1 ____ 18 _ 23 __ 41

_91t__ 1871-1872 ____ -1.50 _ 12.1 ____ 28 _ 12 __ 40

_91t__ 1958-1959 ____-1.43 _ 13.0 ____ 27 _ 13 __ 40

_91t__ 1970-1971 ____-0.88 _ 15.5 ____ 24 _ 16 __ 40

_91t__ 1973-1974 ____ 0.85 _ 23.5 ____ 16 _ 24 __ 40

_95 __ 1961-1962 ____ -0.18 _ 18.1 ____ 21 _ 18 __ 39 

_96t__ 1971-1972 ____ 1.09 _ 22.9 ____ 15 _ 23 __ 38

_96t__ 2012-2013 ____ 1.59 _ 26.1 ____ 12 _ 26 __ 38

_98t__ 1984-1985 ____ 1.35 _ 24.1 ____ 13 _ 24 __ 37

_98t__ 1987-1988 ____ 0.38 _ 19.1 ____ 18 _ 19 __ 37

100t__ 1891-1892 ____ 1.87 _ 25.3 ____ 11 _ 25 __ 36* (23)

100t__ 1956-1957 ____ 1.18 _ 21.9 ____ 14 _ 22 __ 36

100t__ 1982-1983 ____ 2.18 _ 27.2 _____ 9 _ 27 __ 36

103t__ 1888-1889 ____ 0.31 _ 16.5 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35

103t__ 1965-1966 ____ 1.28 _ 21.4 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35 

103t__ 1975-1976 ____ 0.33 _ 17.3 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35

103t__ 1985-1986 ____-0.30 _ 13.0 ____ 22 _ 13 __ 35

107t__ 2016-2017 ____ 2.95 _ 30.2 _____ 5 _ 30 __ 35* (25)

107t__ 2018-2019 ____ 1.27 _ 20.5 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35* (25)

109 __ 1932-1933 ____ 2.64 _ 27.0 _____ 7 _ 27 __ 34

110t__ 1875-1876 ____  1.17 _ 18.8 ____ 14 _ 19 __ 33

110t__ 1920-1921 ____  1.14 _ 18.6 ____ 14 _ 19 __ 33

110t__ 2015-2016 ____ 3.90 _ 32.8 _____ 0 _ 33 __ 33

113t__ 1937-1938 ____ 0.68 _ 15.1 ____ 17 _ 15 __ 32* (25)

113t__ 1941-1942 ____-0.20 _ 11.3 ____ 21 _ 11 __ 32

115t__ 1899-1900 ____ 0.60 _ 13.6 ____ 17 _ 14 __ 31

115t__ 1900-1901 ____-0.44 __ 9.1 ____ 22 __ 9 __ 31

115t__ 1954-1955 ____ 0.29 _ 11.5 ____ 19 _ 12 __ 31

115t__ 1990-1991 ____ 2.88 _ 24.9 _____ 6 _ 25 __ 31

119t__ 1897-1898 ____ 2.28 _ 21.2 _____ 9 _ 21 __ 30

119t__ 1927-1928 ____ 0.93 _ 14.5 ____ 15 _ 15 __ 30 

119t__ 1930-1931 ____ 0.41 _ 11.6 ____ 18 __12 __ 30

119t__ 1951-1952 ____ 1.98 _ 19.7 ____ 10 _ 20 __ 30* (23)

119t__ 1999-2000 ____ 1.23 _ 16.3 ____ 14 _ 16 __ 30

124t__ 1908-1909 ____ 2.29 _ 20.4 _____9 _ 20 __ 29

124t__ 1928-1929 ____ 1.00 _ 13.8 ____ 15 _ 14 __ 29

124t__ 1979-1980 ____ 0.89 _ 12.8 ____ 16 _ 13 __ 29

124t__ 2021-2022 ____ 1.75 _ 17.9 ____ 11 _ 18 __ 29

128t__ 1905-1906 ____ 2.31 _ 20.0 _____ 8 _ 20 __ 28* (16)

128t__ 1989-1990 ____ 0.95 _ 13.4 ____ 15 _ 13 __ 28

130t__ 1879-1880 ____ 3.28 _ 22.7 _____ 4 _ 23 __ 27* (19)

130t__ 1929-1930 ____ 1.37 _ 13.6 ____ 13 _ 14 __ 27

132 __ 1889-1890 ____ 3.51 _ 24.4 _____ 2 _ 24 __ 26* (9)

133t__ 1953-1954 ____ 2.20 _ 15.8 _____ 9 _ 16 __ 25

133t__ 2006-2007 ____ 1.36 _ 12.4 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25* (19)

133t__ 2007-2008 ____ 1.35 _ 11.9 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25

136t__ 1877-1878 ____ 0.72 __ 8.1 ____ 16 ___ 8 __ 24

136t__ 1991-1992 ____ 1.81 _ 12.6 ____ 11 _ 13 __ 24* (15)

138t__ 1912-1913 ____ 2.45 _ 15.3 _____ 8 _ 15 __ 23

138t__ 1936-1937 ____ 2.66 _ 15.6 _____ 7 _ 16 __ 23

138t__ 1974-1975 ____ 2.05 _ 13.1 ____ 10 _ 13 __ 23 

138t__ 1988-1989 ____ 1.09 __ 8.1 ____ 15 __ 8 __ 23

138t__ 1994-1995 ____ 1.74 _ 11.8 ____ 11 _ 12 __ 23

143t__ 1949-1950 ____ 2.34 _ 14.0 _____ 8 _ 14 __ 22 

143t__ 1950-1951 ____ 1.40 __ 9.3 ____ 13 __ 9 __ 22

143t__ 1952-1953 ____ 2.61 _ 15.1 _____ 7 _ 15 __ 22

146 __ 1998-1999 ____ 2.60 _ 12.7 _____ 7 _ 13 __ 20* (15)

147 __ 1996-1997 ____ 2.14 _ 10.0 _____ 9 _ 10 __ 19

148 __ 1972-1973 ____ 0.94 __ 2.8 ____ 15 ___3 __ 18

149 __ 1918-1919 ____ 2.17 __ 3.8 _____ 9 ___ 4 __ 13* (10)

150 __ 2019-2020 ____ 2.88 __ 4.8 ____ 6 ___ 5 __ 11

151 __ 1997-1998 ____ 3.14 __ 5.5 _____ 4 ___ 6 __ 10 *(5)

152 __ 2011-2012 ____ 3.62 __ 7.4 _____ 2 ___ 7 ___ 9 (6 excl Oct)

153 __ 1931-1932 ____ 3.90 __ 5.3 _____ 0 ___ 5 ___ 5

154 __ 2001-2002 ____ 4.20 __ 3.5 _____ 0 ___ 4 ___ 4

155 __ 2022-2023 ____ 3.92 __ 2.3 _____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 2

_____________________________

* more than a third of snow was recorded mar-apr, figure in brackets was winter severity on mar 1st.  In winter 1887-88, 22 of the 47 snow points came in mar, so while not quite half the total, a figure is shown in brackets also. 1870 was similar, almost alf its snow points came in mar-apr. ... winters not flagged for this also get a few of their snowfall points in mar-apr. 

** a conservative estimate was made for Dec 1868 (no data) based on weather maps available, winter severity could be closer to 50 if estimates are too conservative, as Dec 1868 looked fairly cold and snowy. (the snow estimate was only 5", temperature est was -1.2 C)